SWEDEN

Estonia disaster
© File photo

New report: Estonia collided with other vessel
Published 11 December 2025 at 10.31

Domestic. An alternative breakdown group claims that the passenger ferry Estonia went under after a collision, not by the damage that occurred when the ship hit the bottom. The conclusion goes against the official line – just days before the State Acquisition Commission and its Finnish and Estonian counterparts present their final report

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On Wednesday, Baltic Marine Technical Investigation Group, BMTIG, held a press conference in Stockholm.

The group, made up of several former military personnel, scientists and technical experts, believes that the major damage to the starboard side of Estonia cannot have occurred at bottom contact.

According to their technical calculations, a powerful surface event is required.

"The damage must have occurred before Estonia reached the bottom and they must have arisen from external influences at the surface," Anders Ulfvarsson, professor emeritus at Chalmers, told Aftonbladet.

BMTIG refers to new photogrammetric measurements of wreckage and physical models which, according to them, show that only a collision with a larger vessel can generate energy levels in the order of 140-180 m. The group believes that this corresponds to a collision with a ship of 3,000-7,000 tons at speeds between 9 and 14 knots.

Their report builds on the assumption that all remaining energy more or less disappears when Estonia hits the bottom with the stern, which according to the group means that the slow sinking along the starboard side is not enough to cause the extensive damage.

The investigators point out that they use the same basic data and energy calculations as previous institutions such as SSPA, HSVA, VINNOVA and JAIC, but that today's damage documentation with new photogrammetry and film material provides a much clearer picture than in the original accident investigation in 1997.

The report emphasises that the calculation models are openly published and can be reproduced by other researchers. The aim, according to the group, is to enable independent control of their results and that others should be able to test and possibly dismiss theories of bottom contact and previous conclusions.

BMTIG now wants the state to open a new accident investigation to clarify what Estonia may have collided with. Here the group points to the new film presented, where an animated reconstruction shows how Estonia, according to their model, sinks very rapidly, in line with their hypothesis of a collision.

Behind the project is Johan Ridderstolpe, the report's lead author and former head of the Navy's construction department within the Swedish Armed Forces, Professor Emeritus Anders Ulfvarsson, the retired accident investigator and flight captain Roland Karlsson, the initiator and animation officer Henrik Olsen and former member of parliament Lars Ångström (MP).

The official final report of the Accident Commission will be presented on 16 December.