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The CDC Warns About the Flu, but the Vaccine Missed It (Again)
The CDC says that last year’s flu season was “high” in severity and the worst on record since the 2017-2018 season.
But why was it so bad? Could it be because last year’s flu vaccine did not have the flu strains that made Americans so sick. Bingo!
The 2024–2025 flu vaccine targeted these strains:
A/Victoria/4897/2022 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus
A/Thailand/8/2022 (H3N2)-like virus
B/Austria/1359417/2021 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus
But the strains that actually caused the majority of infections were newly drifted versions of H3N2, plus a strong showing of H1N1, which, while included, had already evolved enough to dull the vaccine’s punch.
The CDC notes that the flu death rate was high and that most child flu deaths were in children who had not received the vaccine. That suggests those children may have survived had they been vaccinated but that’s impossible to prove, especially if the vaccine didn’t match the fatal strain.
Still, the CDC recommends the flu vaccine to prevent this year’s flu season from being “high severity.” But how do we know that the 2025–2026 flu vaccine will be any better at preventing this year’s strains? We don’t. In fact, we can be fairly certain it won’t. The strains in that vaccine were chosen based on what was circulating last spring.
So what are we to make of this? Well, basically, the flu vaccine is like the pumpkin spice latte: it shows up every fall, whether it works or not.
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