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Towards the ‘Triumph of Free Trade’
French author Michel Houellebecq has a well-earned reputation for prophecy. His 2001 novel Platform seemingly imagines the 2002 Islamic terrorist bombings in Bali. His 2015 novel Submission, published on the date of the Charlie Hebdo shooting in Paris, foretells numerous since-realized developments related to Islam, demographic change, and politics in late-stage liberal France. Too often overlooked is Houellebecq’s 2019 novel Serotonin, which uncannily envisages an EU-Mercosur trade deal and European farmer protests. Among the key events is a violent, suicidal showdown between protesting farmers and riot police. The narrator muses, “Things had always toppled at the last minute towards the triumph of free trade, towards the race for higher productivity.”
Houellebecq’s France is indeed a key player in the present-day EU-Mercosur trade deal and its concomitant farmer protests. All but one French parliamentarian voted against the deal last summer. Under the sham-democratic procedures of the European Union, though, citizens will have little ability to affect the proceedings, and EU officials are determined to push forward. The most realistic way to scuttle the agreement is the formation of a so-called “blocking minority” of at least four member states representing 35 percent of the EU population that are opposed to the deal. France, Italy, Hungary, and Poland were tentatively inclined toward blocking the deal in December, just as Ursula von der Leyen hoped to fly to Brazil for a signing ceremony. Backroom political talks and farmer protests will resume this month, beginning on January 9.
Especially symbolic in these proceedings is the role of Poland, a model case of economic transition and sometime-skeptic of EU federalism. These tensions play out weekly in the political sphere, where Polish citizens have been subject to steady turmoil. From 2015 to 2023, a right-wing sovereigntist coalition headed by the Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość — PiS) party governed in Warsaw. In 2023, voters handed power to an unwieldy coalition of pro-EU liberals, centrists, and leftists, united only by antipathy to PiS. In the ensuing two years, the government had forcefully sought to remake the media, judiciary, and other institutions. Political opponents have been dramatically arrested, and a former government minister lives in exile in Budapest. Last year’s fiercely contested presidential election kept the veto-wielding presidency in conservative hands, limiting the government’s ability to reshape the country through the legislative process. (RELATED: What Next for Poland After Nawrocki Victory?)
Tusk’s government has maintained a tepid opposition to the trade deal, as Polish farmers are among the most obvious likely victims…
Presiding over this combustible mix is Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a eurocrat’s eurocrat, and a former president of the European Council. On issues like migration and the ongoing Mercosur trade talks, the experienced political operator must resort to Realpolitik, balancing liberal desires with a voting public that enjoys, by European standards, a remarkable set of alternatives. Tusk’s government has maintained a tepid opposition to the trade deal, as Polish farmers are among the most obvious likely victims, though analysts suggest Tusk hopes not to cast a deciding vote. “[The trade deal] is not perfect, but it is not bad,” said the prime minister recently.
Polish farmers staged protests throughout 2025, objecting to the Mercosur deal and the ruinous impact of Ukrainian agricultural imports. On December 30, they demonstrated at over 120 locations near major roadways across the country without blocking traffic. “This protest is not only against the European Union’s policy under the EU-Mercosur agreement,” farmer Damian Murawiec said in a television interview, “but also because we see the passivity and ineptitude of the Polish government in building a blocking minority against this agreement. Politicians responsible for agriculture have been telling us for many months that it is impossible to build this blocking minority … They have raised the white flag in this regard.” The next major protest is scheduled for January 9 in Warsaw.
Several right-wing opposition parties have contested the proposed trade deal. Anna Bryłka, a Member of the European Parliament from the right-wing Confederation (Konfederacja) political alliance and expert on agricultural policy, has been a tireless advocate for the farmers. Following the December 30 protests, she wrote: “Farmers from Mercosur countries produce food according to standards that are prohibited in the EU: different plant protection products, growth hormones, lack of real environmental standards. Polish farmers are expected to compete with cheaper production, which is simply not allowed in our country.”
Resistance to the proposed trade deal is concentrated in countries with large agricultural sectors, and a willingness to oppose EU dictates, something many small member states are unwilling to risk. Germany, Spain, and the Nordic countries are especially keen to finalize the deal, as are EU federal bureaucrats. Analysts have speculated to what degree the deal is meant to boost struggling German industry and feed the insatiable EU leviathan.
“For some time now, when it became apparent that Germany was ineffective without cheap Russian gas and oil, and therefore, as the leader of Europe, instead of defending Europe and withdrawing from absurdities such as the Green Deal, it wants to act like a parasite,” said Dr. Mieczysław Ryba, a professor at the John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin, in a recent interview. “Not to push the EU forward, but to suck the juices out of it. This is what the Mercosur agreement is all about. They don’t know how to deal with it any other way.”
Recalling the EU’s origins and its increasingly authoritarian bent, he added, “For many decades, the common agricultural policy has been the foundation of European policy, and suddenly we are destroying it. We are undermining the whole logic. If we apply such high sanitary and climate requirements and suddenly ruin everything just because Germany is struggling, everyone can see it. This is a giant step towards the collapse of the EU as such.”
Though von der Leyen and company were temporarily frustrated, they aren’t finished yet. Italy is the likeliest weak link of the “blocking minority.” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reportedly supports the deal in principle but seeks to shore up support from Italian agricultural interests, and von der Leyen has said she plans to return to Brazil this month. Italy has recently signaled it will agree to the deal after obtaining certain promises from Brussels. Tusk might very well have his wish and be absolved of casting a decisive vote.
“My interlocutors weren’t fighting for their interests,” realizes Houellebecq’s narrator, “or even for the interests that they were supposed to defend, and it would have been a mistake to believe as much: they were fighting for ideas; for years, I had been confronted with people who were ready to die for free trade.”
READ MORE from Michael O’Shea:
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Ireland Is a Democratic Late Starter
It’s Past High Noon for Poland’s Liberals
Michael O’Shea is an American-Polish writer and translator. He is a Danube Institute visiting international fellow.