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Predicting The Winners Of The 61st ACM Awards
‘Bout that time of the year.
Yesterday, the Academy of Country Music announced its picks for the 2026 ACM Awards. After what seems like well over a decade of head-scratching nominations, snubs and wins, many were wondering if they would finally diverge from the mainstream stranglehold that they’ve so clearly found themselves in despite the growth of the independent and alt. country scene over the past five years.
The nominees are in, and I have to admit, it’s one of the more interesting sets of nominees we’ve seen in quite some time.
Following the trend set last November at the CMA Awards, women absolutely dominate this year’s set of nominees. Riding the highs of her sophomore album, Cloud 9, Megan Moroney leads all artists with a staggering nine nominations. Highlighted by her first-ever Entertainer of the Year nod, she’d also receive nominations for Female Artist, Single (“6 Months Later”), Song (“Am I Okay”) and Artist-Songwriter of the Year.
Ella Langley was shown a lot of love, getting seven nominations. These include her first-ever Female Artist of the Year nod as well as a Single and Song of the Year nomination for her record-breaking hit, “Choosin’ Texas,” and an Artist-Songwriter nod.
Zach Top is also riding the well-deserved buzz gained at both the CMA Awards and Grammys recently, picking up five nominations for Male Artist of the Year (his first), Album of the Year (Ain’t In It For My Health) and Single and Song of the Year (“I Never Lie”).
A familiar cast of characters (for the most part) occupy the Entertainer of the Year nominees, with Luke Combs, Jelly Roll, Cody Johnson, Megan Moroney, Chris Stapleton, Morgan Wallen and Lainey Wilson all receiving nods in the jam-packed category.
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The biggest highlights, at least in the eyes of independent and alt. country fans, had to be the first-time nominations for 49 Winchester (Group of the Year), Stephen Wilson Jr. (Visual Media of the Year – “Cuckoo”) and Carter Faith (Album of the Year – Cherry Valley). Additionally, it was nice to see Flatland Cavalry, The Red Clay Strays and Muscadine Bloodline receive additional nominations this year as well for both Group and Duo of the Year.
Now that you have a brief rundown of the most notable nominations and the context surrounding them, let’s dive into some predictions.
Male Artist of the Year
Luke Combs
Riley Green
Cody Johnson
Chris Stapleton
Zach Top
All things considered, Male Artist of the Year is pretty stacked this year. With all artists having pretty stellar years in 2025, it’s essentially anyone’s game. While Riley Green has been incredibly buzzy lately, I don’t see him taking it home this year. Similarly, I don’t quite see CoJo or Luke Combs winning, given the fact that 2025 wasn’t a big year for the two release-wise, despite their popularity.
Personally, I see this coming down to Stapleton and Top. With Stapleton coming off two straight wins in 2024 and 2025 (and five in the past 10 years), he’s always a safe bet. That being said, I think Top can ride the wave of his first-career Grammy win for Best Traditional Country Album all the way to his first Male Artist of the Year award.
Should Win: Zach Top
Predicted Winner: Zach Top
Female Artist of the Year
Kelsea Ballerini
Miranda Lambert
Ella Langley
Megan Moroney
Lainey Wilson
This is a pretty tough one. Simply put, I don’t see any reality where Kelsea Ballerini or Miranda Lambert receive many votes. With that being said, it’s going to be an interesting race with the years Langley, Wilson and Moroney had. As for Wilson, she had quite a successful 2025 with the continued success of “Somewhere Over Laredo” and her international Whirlwind Tour. It’s also pretty well established that she’s an award show favorite at this point, taking home three straight Female Artist and two straight Entertainer of the Year awards here at the ACMs.
However, I really don’t see the ACMs being able to justify giving the award to anyone other than Langley. Simply put, she’s the hottest country artist on the planet right now, spending her record-breaking fifth week at #1 on the all-genre Billboard Hot 100 with “Choosin’ Texas.” Though Wilson has been a favorite of the Academy for a while, I don’t see how Langley can drop this one given her success the past year.
Should Win: Ella Langley
Predicted Winner: Ella Langley
Group of the Year
49 Winchester
Flatland Cavalry
Old Dominion
Rascal Flatts
The Red Clay Strays
Surprisingly, Group of the Year is arguably the most interesting category this year. Ignoring the fact that Old Dominion and Rascal Flatts (of all the choices) are nominated, the fact that 49 Winchester, The Red Clay Strays AND Flatland Cavalry are all nominated is enough to bring a tear to your eye if you’ve been following the alternative scene for years.
You honestly can’t go wrong with 49, The Strays or Flatland; they’re all that good. If we’re talking about this very moment, I think I’d give the slight edge to 49 Winchester, given the success of 2024’s Leavin’ This Holler and how good their upcoming album, Change Of Plans, sounds. With that being said, I think that The Red Clay Strays are simply too hot right now and will take home their second ACM award.
Should Win: 49 Winchester
Predicted Winner: The Red Clay Strays
Duo of the Year
Brooks & Dunn
Brothers Osborne
Dan + Shay
Muscadine Bloodline
Thelma & James
Quite frankly, Duo of the Year is always the most boring major category at both the ACMs and CMAs. When you take a look around the genre from a broad perspective, none of these selections is pushing the needle the way others in the respective categories are.
Obviously, Muscadine Bloodline is far and away the best duo here, being one of the best in the jam-packed indie scene. Unfortunately for Muscadine, I don’t think the Academy will show them much love despite them being the clear winner. With that being said, I think Brooks & Dunn will be the default pick to win, given the fact that they won last year.
Should Win: Muscadine Bloodline
Predicted Winner: Brooks & Dunn
Single of the Year
“6 Months Later” – Megan Moroney
“Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley
“I Never Lie” – Zach Top
“Somewhere Over Laredo” – Lainey Wilson
“The Fall” – Cody Johnson
If we’re being realistic, there’s simply no reality where “Choosin’ Texas,” which has spent five, soon-to-be six weeks, at #1 on the all-genre Billboard 100. The track is the biggest hit in the genre since Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” and there’s simply no reason not to reward the song for its record-breaking success.
Should Win: “Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley
Predicted Winner: “Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley
Song of the Year
“A Song To Sing” – Miranda Lambert & Chris Stapleton (Chris Stapleton, Miranda Lambert, Jenee Fleenor, Jesse Frasure)
“Am I Okay?” – Megan Moroney (Megan Moroney, Luke Laird, Jessie Jo Dillon)
“Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley (Ella Langley, Luke Dick, Miranda Lambert, Joybeth Taylor)
“I Never Lie” – Zach Top (Zach Top, Carson Chamberlain, Tim Nichols)
“Somewhere Over Laredo – Lainey Wilson (Lainey Wilson, Trannie Anderson, Dallas Wilson, Andy Albert, Harold Arlen & Yip Harburg)
Song of the Year, which focuses on the lyrical composition of the song rather than the production and chart-success like Single of the Year does, leaves the door open for other songs other than Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas.”
Though I can see Wilson’s “Somewhere Over Laredo” potentially snagging another win, given the affinity the Academy has for the Louisiana native, I see this being a race between Top’s “I Never Lie” and “Choosin’ Texas.”
Despite “I Never Lie” having a slight edge in my opinion due to its quality, traditional lyrics that have the perfect tongue-in-cheek nature to it, I don’t see it stopping “Choosin’ Texas'” monster run that it’s primed to have.
Should Win: “I Never Lie” – Zach Top
Predicted Winner: “Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley
New Male Artist of the Year
Gavin Adcock
Vincent Mason
Shaboozey
Hudson Westbrook
Tucker Wetmore
A genuinely head-scratching set of nominees, which includes Shaboozey, Gavin Adcock and Tucker Wetmore all returning in their second year for the award, New Male Artist of the Year is arguably the most boring category this year. Even ignoring the fact that stellar artists like Wyatt Flores, Dylan Gossett, Kashus Culpepper, Braxton Keith and more got snubbed, no one really jumps out here.
Overall, I’d say Hudson Westbrook is the best artist in the group and should take home the award. With that being said, however, I think Tucker Wetmore will ride the success of his #1 hits, “Wind Up Missing You” and “3,2,1,” all the way to a win.
Should Win: Hudson Westbrook
Predicted Winner: Tucker Wetmore
New Female Artist of the Year
Avery Anna
Mackenzie Carpenter
Dasha
Caroline Jones
Emily Ann Roberts
Similar to New Male Artist, the Academy left a lot of quality artists off the nominees list. Seriously, where are Kaitlin Butts, Willow Avalon and Carter Faith (who received an Album of the Year nod)? Though it’s nice to see both Avery Anna and Emily Ann Roberts get nominations, New Female Artist is another disappointing category.
Honestly, I think it’s anybody’s game here. Though Emily Ann Roberts should probably take home the award, I see Avery Anna riding her online buzz and successful collaborations with Sam Barber to a deserved win.
Should Win: Emily Ann Roberts
Predicted Winner: Avery Anna
Visual Media of the Year
“6 Months Later” – Megan Moroney
“A Song To Sing” – Miranda Lambert & Chris Stapleton
“Cuckoo” -Stephen Wilson, Jr.
“Somewhere Over Laredo” – Lainey Wilson
“The Fall” – Cody Johnson
Music videos seem to be a dying art these days, especially when you consider the fact that CMT recently cancelled their long-running Hot 20 Countdown series. Personally, I haven’t heard much buzz surrounding any of the music videos nominated here (or any music video in the year 2025, honestly).
I don’t think there’s really a clear frontrunner for Visual Media. Though I’d love to see Stephen Wilson Jr.’s cinematic video for “Cuckoo” help him take home his first ACM Award, I see Megan Moroney taking home the award for “6 Months Later’s” glitzy, dance-centric visuals.
Should Win: “Cuckoo” – Stephen Wilson Jr.
Predicted Winner: “6 Months Later” – Megan Moroney
Music Event of the Year
“A Song To Sing” – Miranda Lambert & Chris Stapleton
“Amen” – Shaboozey & Jelly Roll
“Don’t Mind If I Do” – Riley Green feat. Ella Langley
“Trailblazer” – Reba McEntire, Miranda Lambert, Lainey Wilson
“You Had To Be There” – Megan Moroney & Kenny Chesney
Overall, Musical Event of the Year is a bit of a boring collection of songs compared to years past. Similar to Visual Media, I don’t think there’s a clear-cut frontrunner here. Realistically, I think it’ll boil down to “Song To Sing,” “Trailblazer” and “Don’t Mind If I Do.”
Personally, I think “Don’t Mind If I Do” is the best track here, being one of Riley Green’s best songs to date. However, I think the Academy will go with “Trailblazer” due to the female starpower of Reba, Lambert and Wilson.
Should Win: “Don’t Mind If I Do” – Riley Green feat. Ella Langley
Predicted Winner: “Trailblazer” – Reba McEntire, Miranda Lambert, Lainey Wilson
Songwriter of the Year
Jessie Jo Dillon
Ashley Gorley
Charlie Handsome
Chase McGill
Blake Pendergrass
Songwriter of the Year will most likely be decided on who had the most hits with Morgan Wallen. While I’m half-joking, quite literally all five of these writers scored major cuts on Wallen’s I’m The Problem. Don’t believe me? Take a look:
Jo Dillon – “Lies Lies Lies,” “If You Were Mine”
Gorley – “Love Somebody”
Handsome – “What I Want,” “Love Somebody,” “I Got Better,” “Superman,” “Miami”
McGill – “20 Cigarettes,” “I Got Better,” “Skoal, Chevy, and Browning,” “Miami,” “Missing”
Pendergrass – “20 Cigarettes,” “I Got Better,” “Just In Case,” “Superman,” “TN,” “Don’t We,” “Miami,” “Number 3 and Number 7” and more
It’s truly hard to ignore Pendergrass’ influence on Wallen’s massive, record-breaking album. With that being said, I see the award going to Jo Dillon, given she also co-wrote Megan Moroney’s “Am I Okay?,” “Cloud 9” and more.
Should Win: Blake Pendergrass
Predicted Winner: Jessie Jo Dillon
Artist-Songwriter of the Year
Luke Combs
Riley Green
Ella Langley
Megan Moroney
Morgan Wallen
As the ACM’s newest award, Artist-Songwriter is undoubtedly one of the most interesting and important categories. As it implies, it rewards the biggest stars who actually pen their own songs — something that’s not always guaranteed in Nashville. Though I think all five artists have an argument here, I see it coming down to Riley Green and Ella Langley, ironically enough.
Given the fact that Green has solo-penned multiple hits like “Don’t Mind If I Do,” Jesus Saves” and “Worst Way,” I think he has the leg up here. With that being said, however, with Langley co-writing massive hits like “Choosin’ Texas,” “Be Her” and “weren’t for the wind,” I see her taking home another award in what’s primed to be a big night for her.
Should Win: Riley Green
Predicted Winner: Ella Langley
Album of the Year
Ain’t In It For My Health – Zach Top
Cherry Valley – Carter Faith
Don’t Mind If I Do (Deluxe) – Riley Green
I’m The Problem – Morgan Wallen
Parker McCollum – Parker McCollum
The second biggest award of the night, Album of the Year, should be quite an interesting one. From a mainstream perspective, it’s quite a good selection. Even ignoring the egregious snub of Eric Church’s Evangeline vs. The Machine, it was a welcome surprise to see Carter Faith score her first-ever ACM nom for her brilliant Cherry Valley and Parker McCollum to receive some love for his underrated self-titled record.
With that being said, I don’t see any of the records topping Zach Top’s killer sophomore record, Ain’t In It For My Health. Simply put, it’s too good not to lose.
Should Win: Ain’t In It For My Health – Zach Top
Predicted Winner: Ain’t In It For My Health – Zach Top
Entertainer of the Year
Luke Combs
Jelly Roll
Cody Johnson
Megan Moroney
Chris Stapleton
Morgan Wallen
Lainey Wilson
This one shouldn’t be controversial at all…
Let’s face it, there’s no artist in country music right now that can even come close to what Morgan Wallen is doing on a global scale. Between the sold-out stadium shows, record-breaking chart success and popularity with country fans and non-country fans alike, none can compare to the “Last Night” singer today.
With that being said, however, we’ve already seen just how opposed he is to seemingly any and all award shows, barely recognizing his Entertainer of the Year win at 2024’s CMA Awards and famously not submitting nominations for the upcoming Grammys in February. It’s no secret that organizations such as the ACMs take note of this. And with that, I think that Wallen, despite being the clear-cut winner by any numerical metric, will drop the award once again.
Given that Lainey has won two years in a row, I think the Academy might finally break Luke Combs’ loss streak to shake things up a bit.
Should Win: Morgan Wallen
Predicted Winner: Luke CombsThe post Predicting The Winners Of The 61st ACM Awards first appeared on Whiskey Riff.