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U.S. may have to refund half its tariff revenue as high-stakes court battle threatens to wreak havoc on the deficit and bond market

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated Sunday that the federal government would have to return about half the revenue it’s collected from tariffs if the Supreme Court upholds a ruling that reciprocal duties are illegal. While he expressed confidence that the top court would side with the Trump administration, losing that revenue windfall could worsen the deficit outlook significantly.