Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords? President Trump has indicated that Saudi Arabia may join the Accords “very shortly,” and Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Sultan (MBS) is scheduled to meet the president at the White House on November 18. In fact, the president stated that “it’s more than a meeting, we are honoring Saudi Arabia,” signaling that something significant may be imminent. This follows President Trump’s phone call with MBS in October, in which, following the Gaza ceasefire, the president stated that he wanted Saudi Arabia to join the Accords. MBS was reportedly amenable to that idea. The two major issues that will be strong indicators of whether Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords are whether the U.S. will allow the Saudis to purchase the F-35 joint strike fighter from the U.S. and if the Saudis are pleased that enough has been accomplished on the pathway to a Palestinian state. (RELATED: Trump Should Expand the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan) On the issue of the F-35s, President Trump has acknowledged that Saudi Arabia wants to buy “a lot” of them, with the United States reportedly considering selling 48 F-35 jets to the kingdom. The sale of the F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia now rests with the secretary of war, who is expected to approve the deal. Following such approval, the deal would head to an interagency review. (RELATED: Kazakhstan Joins the Abraham Accords. Will Others in Central Asia Follow?) A Pentagon assessment leaked to the New York Times shows reservations within the Department of War (formerly, the Department of Defense) that the F-35 technology could end up in Chinese hands through either Chinese espionage or existing strong Saudi-China defense ties. According to news coverage of the leaked report, Pentagon officials are working on ways to decrease the possibility of that happening, though no specifics are mentioned. Concerns about China are notable, given that U.S. concerns about UAE–China relations caused the UAE to back out of its own F-35 negotiations in 2021. According to two Israeli intelligence officials, Israel is seeking to condition the sale of the F-35s to Saudi Arabia, joining the Abraham Accords. “Unlike the supply of F-35s to Turkey that we strongly oppose, we are less concerned about such a weapons system in Saudi Arabia if it’s part of a regional security cooperation as part of the Abraham Accords, like we have with the United Arab Emirates,” one of these officials told Axios. Opposition leader Yair Lapid publicly opposed the prospect of a sale of the F-35s to Saudi Arabia, stating that it was never part of normalization discussions. But given that he is not in the government, his views are not Israeli policy. Currently, as part of the U.S.–Israeli objective to maintain Israel’s qualitative edge in the region, Israel owns all of the F-35s in the Middle East, with 45 of these jets and another 30 ordered. Abraham Accord signatory Morocco is currently reportedly in talks with the U.S. for purchasing its own F-35s. Saudi officials have recently re-stated that their ascension into the Abraham Accords would be conditioned on progress towards a Palestinian state. A potential poison pill for the prospect of Saudi–Israeli normalization would be how much such a deal would push the idea of a Palestinian state. Saudi officials have recently re-stated that their ascension into the Abraham Accords would be conditioned on progress towards a Palestinian state. However, there are indications that Trump’s peace plan in Gaza may have checked that box for the Saudis. For example, in a recent joint statement on the U.N. Security Council’s resolution on Gaza, Saudi Arabia and the United States (in addition to Qatar, Egypt, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Jordan, and Turkey) all supported the U.S.’s Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict as “offer[ing] a pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood. We emphasize that this is a sincere effort, and the Plan provides a viable path towards peace and stability, not only between the Israelis and the Palestinians, but for the entire region.” And the specific language of the plan also states that “[w]hile Gaza re-development advances and when the PA reform program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.” (RELATED: The Trump Peace Plan: Promise, Pause, or Illusion) While the plan does recognize the aspiration of the Palestinian people to a state, it may have sufficient conditions that if those conditions are enforced (i.e., end of terrorism, disarming of Hamas, returning of all the hostages, barring of Hamas from future government, and reform of the Palestinian Authority), it may enable Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin (“Bibi”) Netanyahu to come on board. However, Bibi will have to navigate increasing calls from those to the right of him in his coalition, who are looking for the prime minister to “make it clear to the entire world” that “a Palestinian state will never be established.” So far, Netanyahu has been in power when the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan joined the Accords, and the Palestinian leadership has done plenty of incitement of violence and support of the October 7 attacks to ensure that a Palestinian state is not established, so Bibi might again be spared with an open confrontation on this issue domestically. Will President Trump be able to capitalize on the recent Gaza ceasefire and the ascension of Kazakhstan to the Abraham Accords to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords as well? An F-35 sale, and some diplomatic concessions to a Palestinian state, might be the price. READ MORE from Steve Postal: Kazakhstan Joins the Abraham Accords. Will Others in Central Asia Follow? 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