Cautionary Tales: What Can November 2025 Teach the GOP About November 2026?
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Cautionary Tales: What Can November 2025 Teach the GOP About November 2026?

“Well, that went badly,” my friend Tony told me in response to this month’s elections. Based in greater New York, he is a crackerjack biochemist. And as an amateur political scientist, he perfectly distilled the results into just four words. The off-year vote also recalls a line from Rocky Horror Picture Show: “It’s just a jump to the left.” Republicans expected at least a mixed picture among assorted races. Instead, a fortnight after the polls closed, the GOP still aches from an election night that was both rocky and a horror show. America’s most populous metropolis … soon will be governed by a self-styled democratic socialist who sounds more like a Soviet commissar than a Scandinavian central banker. The most menacing development was Zohran Kwame Mamdani’s 50.4 percent majority victory as the next mayor of New York City. America’s most populous metropolis and Earth’s financial, media, and fashion capital soon will be governed by a self-styled democratic socialist who sounds more like a Soviet commissar than a Scandinavian central banker. (RELATED: Comrade With a Condo: The Mamdani Myth Exposed) Mamdani speaks warmly about “seizing the means of production” and “abolition of private property.” If he can promise a freebie, he will. From no-cost childcare to complimentary bus rides to city-owned grocery stores, Mamdani wants average New Yorkers to leave their wallets untouched. Instead, “the top 1 percent” will pay “their fair share” in higher taxes and, thus, finance a perpetual avalanche of gratis goodies. (RELATED: Electing the Image: Mamdani and the Mimetic Turn in Democracy) Yay! Uh-oh: “The Mamdani Effect” confirms that plenty of wealthy New Yorkers want none of this. Like a Billy Joel character named Anthony, they’re movin’ out. A New York Post headline illustrated how Mamdani already is exporting pain beyond Gotham: “Florida locals rush to buy homes over fears New Yorkers fleeing Mamdani will flood the market.” (RELATED: The Faulty Idealism of the Anti-Wealth Brigade) Precisely as I predicted on Fox Business Network’s The Bottom Line, Mamdani’s win would not yield the limited cautionary tale that conservatives like George F. Will idiotically demanded, to remind young people what socialism looks like. (Such folly is coupled with sadism, specifically the disgusting practice of wishing collectivist doom upon fellow Americans.) (RELATED: Mamdani: The Miracle Hair-Growth Salesman Who Claims to Have Found the Master Formula) Rather than drown in his own failures, a triumphant Mamdani soars as his Mini-Mes metastasize across America. Seattle just elected Katie Wilson as mayor. She is a female Mamdani who, if anything, seems more hectoring than the smiling Stalinist bound for Gracie Mansion. Moscow on the Hudson is not just a 1984 film but, God help us, New York City’s near-term destiny. And now, the Politburo on Puget Sound waits in the wings. (RELATED: Mamdani Is NOT a New Phenomenon: He’s the Center of the Democrat Party) “Times Square, with Red Square on the horizon,” image by Deroy Murdock, Chat GPT, Nov. 5, 2025. Things were no better across the Hudson. Late polls showed the energetic, upbeat Republican Jack Ciattarelli in a dead heat for New Jersey governor against Democrat Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill. But the actual ballots gave Ciattarelli just 42.8 percent versus Sherrill’s 56.6 percent — a 13.8 percent Democrat drubbing, 10.6 points worse than his 2021 near-win against incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy. Dems made Ciattarelli’s defeat even more excruciating when they regained their General Assembly supermajority. In Virginia’s gubernatorial face-off, GOP Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears had begun to wane in opinion surveys. But what might have been a 5 percent loss became a 42.4 percent to 57.4 percent, 15-point rout favoring former Democrat Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger. (RELATED: Five Quick Things: The Mamdani Matriarchy Sets Up Shop In NYC) Most astonishingly, incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R-VA) was comfortably ahead in the polls against Democrat Jay “Bang Bang” Jones. As National Review first revealed, the former state delegate notoriously fantasized via text message about plugging “two bullets to the head” of Virginia’s then GOP House Speaker Todd Gilbert. Jones called Todd and Jennifer Gilbert’s two young children “little fascists” and glowingly imagined them dying in their mother’s arms. Jones also looked forward to attending his GOP colleagues’ funerals, so he could “piss on their graves.” Jones was self-burned toast. And then he scorched Miyares 52.9 percent to 46.7 percent — a comfy 6.2 percent win. Democrats also converted 13 state House seats, leaving Republicans at half their strength in 2017. “So what?” some Republicans whistle as they traverse the tombstones. “New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia are Democrat strongholds. Who cares?” First, President Donald J. Trump improved his standing in these three places in November 2024 compared to November 2020. Gotham had back-to-back GOP mayors not so long ago. New Jersey has elected Republican governors within memory. And Glenn Youngkin is Virginia’s Republican governor, right now! If not even a token victory among these locales, Republicans could have lost narrowly. Instead, Democrats kicked their asses. Even worse, Republicans stumbled in increasingly GOP-friendly areas and several solidly conservative bastions. Even worse, Republicans stumbled in increasingly GOP-friendly areas and several solidly conservative bastions. “In Georgia, Democrats flipped two public service commission seats — their first statewide wins since 2006 — and won them by 24 points,” Blaze Media’s Daniel Horowitz lamented. “They broke the GOP supermajority in the Mississippi Senate, flipped a state House seat, and took local races across Pennsylvania.” Mississippi? Are you kidding me? “Democrats have outperformed their 2024 presidential baseline by an average of 15 points in special elections this year, according to Ballotpedia — more than double the overperformance seen during Trump’s first term,” Horowitz ominously continued. “In 45 of 46 key contests, Democrats either held or improved their position.” “It was an electoral blowout,” said Senator Ted Cruz (R – Texas). Amid this conservative carnage, he warned Fox News’ Sean Hannity, “The Left showed up in big numbers last night, and common-sense conservatives did not. If that happens a year from now, we face disaster in the midterms.” In the 50 weeks before Decision 2026, what should GOP candidates, strategists, and activists learn from this mayhem? Republicans mock Democrats for having no message beyond full-blown Trump Derangement Syndrome. That’s not much of a message. But it’s sufficient to drive turnout among Trump-loathing Democrats and Left-leaning independents. Trump has united Republicans, among whom he enjoyed 91 percent approval in a Gallup survey released October 22, exactly where he stood among GOP respondents in January. But, as Fox News’ Dana Perino astutely observed, Trump also has united Democrats. They differ on plenty but share a hatred of Trump white-hot enough to weld steel. According to Gallup, Trump’s approval among Democrats was a mere 6 percent in October, precisely where that figure was in January, when Trump returned to the White House. Hopped up on the outrage of the October 18 No Kings protests, Democrats decided to “Get Trump” by making life miserable for the “little fascists” on the November 4 ballot. Statistically, Democrats hate Trump 3 percent more than Republicans love him. (Ninety-four percent Democrat disapproval of Trump minus 91 percent GOP approval.) That alone gives Democrats an edge. And that edge swells into a wedge, since hate often motivates more than love. In fact, Republicans seemed so pleased with Trump that too many reckoned he had everything under control and didn’t need their help. These Republicans were so busy savoring the Golden Age that they didn’t bother to vote. For shame! GOP leaders need to rally rank-and-file Republicans to turn out en masse for every election and vote their entire ballots, top to bottom, not just quadrennially to pick a president. Republicans have zero excuse for not turning out universally in every general election, especially given the profusion of mass mail-in ballots, drop boxes, ballot harvesting, early voting, late-arriving ballots, and every other corrupt “temporary” scheme that Democrats imposed during 2020’s COVID-era campaign. Until America gloriously reembraces in-person voting on Election Day, GOP voters may employ all of these balloting techniques. Republican officials, campaign professionals, and sympathetic pundits need to ride GOP voters like jockeys and whip them to the polls, like thoroughbreds toward finish lines. (RELATED: SCOTUS Must Stop Mail-In Voting Madness) YouTube commentator Steve Turley wisely identified another deficiency that hobbled GOP prospects. Right-leaning independents stayed home. It is vital to motivate these citizens, too. According to Gallup, they will need serious prodding. While Trump’s numbers were eerily consistent with Republicans (sky high) and Democrats (dismal), they shifted significantly among independents — and not favorably. Trump’s 46 percent approval among independents in January slid to just 33 percent last month — 28 percent less applause near Halloween than on MLK Day. While some independents leaned Left, others tilted Right. If the latter were ho-hum about voting, they needed to hear compelling reasons to do so. The issues that frosted voters toward Republicans include the still-high cost of living. Year-on-year inflation has stayed perfectly steady under Trump, from 3.0 percent in January to 3.0 percent in September. This is down from 9.1 percent in June 2022, under Biden, but neither lower in eight months nor at the Federal Reserve Board’s 2 percent annual target. Increasing energy supplies should lower manufacturing, transit, and HVAC costs and drag others down with them. Oil remains stuck at roughly $60 per barrel. Drill, baby, drill until that price slides. $50 oil is 16.7 percent cheaper. Yes, please! Trump wisely scrapped tariffs on bananas, coffee, and cocoa, among other grocery products. Good news, but why on Earth did he ever slap tariffs on these goods? It’s one thing to protect a domestic industry, for better or worse. But bananas, of which America grows 8,000 metric tons and imports 9.7 billion metric tons? Infinitesimal Hawaiian output aside, America imports 99.99875 percent of its coffee, according to USAFacts.org. America’s 2023 cocoa bean exports totaled $2.57 million. Imports were 309 times higher: $793 million. Especially given consumers’ price concerns, tariffs should not be self-mutilating. Thinning wallets require lower costs and higher incomes, so consumers have smaller bills and more cash to pay them. The One Big Beautiful Tax Cut should help, as would broader pro-growth policies. Since eight Senate Democrats joined Republicans to end the 43-day Schumer Shutdown, the GOP Congress should clog the Resolute Desk with low-tax, market-friendly legislation for Trump to sign. Additional reconciliation bills would facilitate this effort, as would retiring the filibuster. As Mark Twain said of Richard Wagner’s music, this latter idea “is better than it sounds.” (RELATED: Trump’s Right: Nuke the Filibuster) Republicans swiftly must get dead serious about election integrity. Insisting that citizens show ID to vote is fine. However, this is nearly meaningless while the GOP lets crooked Democrats obliterate the secret ballot via mass-mail voting. Until Americans reinvigorate the centuries-old democratic norm of in-person voting on Election Day, Republicans must disinfect filthy mass-mail-in ballots. “New Jersey and Virginia GOP officials never thought it might make sense to cut the cards — just once — and compare voter rolls with property tax rolls and stop mail-in ballots going to ineligible addresses — like Walmarts or gas stations,” clean-election watchdog and Omega4America founder Jay Valentine wrote via Substack. “Neither state GOP did a thing about the scores of NGOs — funded by international Leftists — working street-level affiliates to harvest ineligible ballots and vote them,” Valentine complained. “The Lefties believed the polls in both states and thought the election was closer than it was. So, they grossly over voted their ineligible ballots — delivering 10–12-point spreads where 2 percent would display better manners.” Republicans need to scrub voter rolls of the ineligible (for starters: disqualified felons and foreign citizens), the relocated, and the deceased. They should require government-issued photo ID of those who vote in person and furnish free ID cards to legitimate voters who lack them. But this is vital: Republicans must compare voter rolls with property rolls and challenge ballots addressed to “voters” registered at bogus locations, including (as the Public Interest Legal Foundation discovered in Nevada) an abandoned yoga studio, the Harry Reid International Airport, casinos, strip clubs, and gravel-filled empty lots in Las Vegas and Reno. Finally, regarding demographics, Republicans need to plant their butts on hard chairs and do this: a) Figure out why the Hispanics who flocked to Trump in the Garden State flew away, as if heading south for the winter. “The three most Latino counties in New Jersey — Passaic, Cumberland, and Hudson — offer key insight,” explained Punchbowl News’ Ally Mutnick. “Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) won Passaic County, which is 43 percent Latino, by a whopping 15 points. In 2024, Trump won it by three points.” “Sherrill won Cumberland County by four points, a seven-point shift from Trump’s three-point win there in 2024,” Mutnick continued. “And in Hudson County, Sherrill pulled a 50-point win, nearly doubling former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 28-point margin.” No bueno. b) Learn how to avoid getting their heads gobbled clean off by praying-mantis-like young-female voters. CNN’s exit polls indicated that women aged 18 through 29 swung Left hard enough to snap GOP candidates’ necks and hand Democrats margins worthy of Warsaw Pact plebiscites. These ladies went 81 percent for Sherrill, 81 percent for Spanberger, 83 percent for California Governor Gavin Newsom’s gerrymandering ploy, and 84 percent for Mamdani. Converting those massive GOP losses into outright victories would require 32 percent to 35 percent Rightward shifts. Unlikely. Curbing this non-enthusiasm to, say, 65 percent pro-Democrat would help. A 55 percent loss among this cohort would merit Prosecco and confetti. How to achieve this? Don’t ask me. I am a 61-year-old man. Republican women under 30 might know how to bring their sisters in from the cold. GOP candidates, strategists, and pollsters should hire them — today! — so they can prevent Republicans from losing their heads on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. READ MORE from Deroy Murdock: Jack Ciattarelli Wraps Run With Raritan Rally Mamdani’s Agenda: Stalinism and Sloth ‘Prosecutor’ Ramin Fatehi: The Chesa Boudin of Chesapeake Bay Deroy Murdock is a Manhattan-based Fox News Contributor.