An Emerson College survey indicates that Steve Hilton, the former Fox News personality, is currently ahead in California’s 2026 gubernatorial primary race. Close behind him is former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Meanwhile, the crowded Democratic lineup has sparked discussion about the unusual possibility that no Democrat could appear in the general election. Conducted Feb. 13–14 with 1,000 likely voters, the Emerson poll shows Hilton leading the field with 17% support. Republican Steve Hilton has just taken the lead in California governor’s race. Let’s go!!!! pic.twitter.com/qMZLUyPjMD — Pamela Hensley (@PamelaHensley22) February 18, 2026 Bianco and U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) are tied for second place, each receiving 14%. Former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter placed next at 10%, while Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer earned 9%. A notable share of respondents — 21% — reported that they remain undecided. Compared to Emerson’s December survey, Hilton’s support increased by five percentage points. In that earlier poll, he was not the leading candidate. Originally from the United Kingdom, Hilton once served as director of strategy for former British Prime Minister David Cameron from 2005 through 2012. After moving to California in 2012, he became a Stanford University lecturer and helped establish the political fundraising platform Crowdpac. He later hosted the Fox News show “The Next Revolution” until 2023. Hilton formally entered the governor’s race in April 2025. His campaign has focused largely on affordability concerns, particularly housing costs and homelessness, along with efforts to challenge what he characterizes as California’s longstanding Democratic one-party control. Among Republican voters, Hilton held a narrow lead over Bianco, securing 38% compared with Bianco’s 37%. He also performed best among independent voters, receiving support from 22% of that group. Within the Democratic electorate, however, no clear frontrunner has emerged. Among Democratic respondents, Swalwell led with 24%, followed by Porter at 17% and Steyer at 15%. Spencer Kimball, who serves as executive director of Emerson College Polling, observed that the split Republican vote combined with a large number of undecided independents could play a major role in shaping the outcome of the general election, particularly because of California’s primary system. California operates under a nonpartisan blanket primary — commonly called a “jungle primary” — created through Proposition 14 in 2010. All candidates, regardless of party affiliation, appear together on one ballot. The primary election will take place June 2, 2026. The two candidates receiving the most votes will move on to the November general election, irrespective of party. Because of this structure, a general election featuring two candidates from the same party can occur if voters from one party unite behind a single contender while the other party’s support is spread across multiple candidates. The Democratic side of the race remains especially crowded. Declared candidates include Swalwell, Porter, Steyer, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Each of these figures received under 5% in Emerson’s latest poll. With more than a dozen Democratic candidates competing, no individual has recently exceeded 21% support in polling. This division has enabled both Hilton and Bianco to make gains, even though Democrats maintain a substantial voter registration advantage across California. We have the world’s #1 ag industry but it’s under constant assault by Gavin Newsom and his urban elitist regime. I went to World Ag Expo in Tulare to tell our farmers: When I’m governor you’ll get the water – and everything else – you need. I will be your greatest champion! pic.twitter.com/aW89vnmrDn — Steve Hilton (@SteveHiltonx) February 15, 2026 Prices for household necessities are going up. Why? Because Democrats are raising the sales tax—AGAIN. When I’m governor, I’ll CUT taxes instead of raising them. pic.twitter.com/sp2Z0V0FSr — Steve Hilton (@SteveHiltonx) February 17, 2026