Foreign Affairs The May 17 Agreement’s Failure Is a Warning About Lebanon The current peace process could well fall into the traps of 1983. (Photo by Fadel Itani/NurPhoto via Getty Images) “War is the continuation of politics by other means” is Clausewitz’s most famous dictum.  Lebanon has suffered far too much from the serial failures of diplomacy and the shortcomings of politics, necessitating the use of “other means.” Now yet again, diplomats and statesmen are trying to induce the country and its powerful antagonists to reach a political accommodation that checks the worst instincts of warring factions more powerful than the state itself.  Last week in Washington, Israeli and Lebanese diplomats met under American auspices during an American-engineered ceasefire. Efforts are under way to establish direct talks between Israel and the government of Lebanon. Yet the sorry record of diplomacy to resolve Lebanon’s travails is a cautionary tale for those who today are trying yet again to establish rules of the game compelling enough to convince all contesting parties that war is the least favorable option. For aspiring peacemakers, there is no better cautionary example than the abortive May 17 Agreement—the U.S.-brokered accord signed on May 17, 1983 between Israel and Lebanon in the aftermath of the 1982 Lebanon War.  The agreement’s central provision was that Israel would withdraw its forces from Lebanon contingent upon the withdrawal of Syrian forces (which had been in Lebanon since 1976) and the reestablishment of Lebanon’s sovereign authority in the South, where Palestinian guerilla forces had effectively ruled since the Cairo Agreement (1969). This conditionality created a built-in dependency: Israel’s retreat was tied to (1) Syrian compliance, which only materialized in 2005, and (2) the (abortive) consolidation of state authority in the South, a task that remains unrealized. The 1983 agreement effectively justified the continued Israeli military presence in the South, all but guaranteeing its failure. The most consequential—and controversial—terms of the agreement concerned postwar security in the South: A security zone in southern Lebanon was implicitly authorized.  Israel was permitted to maintain security coordination mechanisms inside Lebanese territory.  These arrangements included cooperation with local militias, especially the South Lebanon Army, a proxy force established and funded by Israel after 1976.  Although the agreement avoided explicitly calling for permanent Israeli occupation, it institutionalized a framework that recognized Israel’s right to retain influence and operational freedom in the South even after formal withdrawal (realized only in 2000, when Israel withdrew unilaterally). While not a peace treaty, the agreement included: Commitments to end the state of war  Restrictions on hostile activities across the border  Movement toward normalization under U.S. auspices  These terms were then and remain today politically explosive in Lebanon, where normalization with Israel, while no longer taboo, remains widely opposed. Syrian-backed factions in particular argued that the May 17 Agreement limited Lebanon’s freedom to host foreign forces (implicitly targeting Syria and Palestinian groups). Like today’s efforts, the agreement allowed Israeli security demands to shape Lebanese internal arrangements.  As a consequence, Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon was tied not only to narrow, if significant security conditions, but also to a wide-ranging restructuring of Lebanon’s sovereignty in ways favorable to Israel. The assassination of Bachir Gemayel in September 1982 had a profound—arguably decisive—impact on the fate of the May 17 Agreement. Even though it was signed months later, his death removed the one Lebanese leader who was most capable (and willing) to implement it. Gemayel, as president-elect and leader of the Lebanese Forces, was central to the strategy behind the agreement. He had close ties with Israel dating back to the civil war, and was expected to negotiate and legitimize a postwar order that recognized and accommodated extraterritorial Israeli security demands in southern Lebanon. More than any other personality, he commanded the coercive capacity to impose compliance upon Lebanon’s powerful and influential politico-military factions. Gemayel’s assassination didn’t just delay the May 17 Agreement—it undermined its entire domestic political foundation. His death transformed the agreement from a potentially enforceable (if controversial) political settlement into a fatally compromised paper framework with no viable path to implementation. Without Gemayel, the Agreement lacked a domestic champion committed to its enforcement. It became instead dependent on fragile external diplomacy, which ultimately collapsed under internal opposition, Syrian resistance, and continuing Israeli occupation. Syria refused to withdraw, and the domestic Lebanese opposition (both militias and political factions) rejected normalization in the aftermath of Gemayel’s assassination. Without him, the Lebanese central government lacked the capacity to enforce the deal. The agreement was never implemented and was formally abrogated by Lebanon in 1984. When the framework collapsed, Israel concluded that no reliable Lebanese or regional partner could deliver. In 1985, it implemented a partial, unilateral withdrawal from most of Lebanon, establishing a security zone along the border. The line is the basis for Israel’s current deployment.  Today’s diplomats be advised: Rather than ending Israel’s military role in Lebanon, the May 17 Agreement attempted to transform it from overt occupation to consensually regulated, semi-permanent security control—a shift that proved untenable for Lebanon’s political class. After Bachir’s death, his brother Amin became president. Amin lacked Bachir’s authority over militias, and also his decisiveness. He pursued a more cautious, balancing approach between Israel, Syria, and Lebanon’s contesting and fragmented internal factions. As a result, the May 17 Agreement, when eventually signed by Amin, reflected more an imposed, externally driven (especially by the U.S.) agreement that compromised Lebanese sovereignty and less one internally anchored in a tenuous Lebanese political consensus. Today’s aspiring peacemakers beware: This critical weakness at the heart of the diplomatic process made the agreement’s central mechanism—conditional Israeli withdrawal—effectively unworkable. Without a Lebanese champion with the power and intent to implement its controversial provisions, the agreement’s framework for a managed Israeli withdrawal with guarantees was stillborn. Instead, Israel shifted toward a more unilateral approach, eventually establishing its security zone in southern Lebanon (from 1985–2000) without a functioning bilateral agreement. As the latest generation of Lebanon’s peace (and war)makers confront Lebanon’s predicament, the May 17 Agreement stands as an object lesson in the fraught nature of diplomatic efforts to empower a sovereign Lebanese government capable and committed both to keeping domestic peace and to containing the interests of erstwhile foreign friends and enemies. The May 17 Agreement established both the parameters of potential agreement and a cautionary reminder of the agreement’s inherent limitations. Its failure stands as a warning for those who seek to reaffirm the value of diplomacy in an era all too often plagued by war. The post The May 17 Agreement’s Failure Is a Warning About Lebanon appeared first on The American Conservative.