For much of Vladimir Putin’s genocidal war, the conventional wisdom was that Ukraine couldn’t possibly defeat mighty Russia. That wisdom is changing. Volodymyr Zelensky, once accused of having no cards to play, is quickly proving otherwise. Indeed, it may not be premature to consider what a Russian defeat would mean for Europe and the world. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s expanding drone campaign is imposing real costs on Russia. Long-range strikes are hitting oil infrastructure deep inside Russian territory, eroding a key pillar of Moscow’s wartime economy. Sen. Ruben Gallego recently stated, “Ukraine is winning right now.” Ukraine’s commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, has said these strikes have caused roughly $25 billion in direct and indirect losses. The striking part is not only the damage, but the efficiency: Ukrainian drone units are forcing Russia to spend heavily to defend assets that can be threatened by comparatively cheap systems. Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, a Ukrainian drone commander, has said his units spend about $40 million a month on drones while inflicting roughly $4 billion in damage on Russian forces. Even allowing for the fog of war, the claim captures the central imbalance Ukraine is trying to exploit: Russia can still fight at scale, but it is being forced to defend that scale at enormous cost. The reach of these attacks is growing. Russian officials now describe regions far from the front as part of the war zone. Leningrad Oblast — home to key Baltic ports like Ust-Luga — has been labeled a “front-line region” by its governor after repeated Ukrainian strikes. These sites sit roughly 600 miles from Ukraine’s border but are critical to Russia’s oil exports. Rybar, one of Russia’s most popular military bloggers, warned that Ukrainian long-range drone strikes are difficult to stop because Russia lacks enough air defenses, writing that “the attacker is systematically depleting air defenses.” Russian authorities were forced to scale back Victory Day celebrations amid fears of drone attacks. Even the Moscow parade was stripped down, with one Russian politician explaining the absence of heavy armor by saying, “Our tanks are busy right now.” A war long presented to Russians as distant and controlled is becoming harder to contain. In a pointed jab at the Kremlin, Zelensky temporarily excluded Red Square from Ukraine’s target list during the parade for “humanitarian purposes” following talks with the United States. Steven Moore, founder of the Ukraine Freedom Project, said the optics undercut Putin’s image of strength. “Putin just went to Trump and asked him to ask Zelensky for a ceasefire for his military parade,” Moore said. “Putin is showing himself to be a loser, and he is doing this while half a dozen Russian cities are on fire.” Oleg Tsarev, a pro-war Russian blogger, said that “the situation on the front line is, to put it mildly, not very good,” adding that Ukrainian drones are reaching “farther and farther.” Gennady Zyuganov, Russia’s Communist Party leader, has warned that without urgent measures the country could face a crisis reminiscent of 1917. As Iranian drones previously began hitting targets across the Middle East, countries like Saudi Arabia turned to Ukraine for solutions. U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth also recently said American military personnel had been deployed to Ukraine to study modern drone warfare and the evolving tactics emerging from the battlefield. “It is not enough just to have the tools — you also need real experience using them and the same speed of adaptation as the threat itself,” said Zelensky. He has framed Ukraine not just as a battlefield innovator but as a provider of integrated defense systems. That pitch is gaining traction. European and Ukrainian companies signed more than 20 defense agreements in 2025, nearly double the number two years earlier. The demand is already becoming concrete. A Ukrainian firm has received a request to help protect a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, offering anti-drone expertise. It is a small example, but a telling one: Ukraine is beginning to fill gaps where others hesitate. “Our path is to export finished products with high added value, develop machine-building and the military-tech sector. Ukraine must claim a worthy place on the global arms market,” said Kyrylo Budanov, head of the President’s Office and former chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence service. This is part of a broader shift. Ukraine is no longer operating solely as a recipient of Western support. It is positioning itself as a contributor to global security. Kyiv is restoring ties with countries once firmly in Russia’s orbit, including Syria, exploring trade and potential security cooperation. Europe is also recalibrating. The defeat of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán removes one of the most consistent obstacles to unified EU support for Ukraine. Leaders once seen as ambivalent, or even pro-Russian, are adjusting their positions, while Kyiv pushes forward on its bid for EU membership. None of this means the war will end soon. Russia retains significant advantages in manpower and resources, and Putin seems committed to waging war regardless of how many Russians are killed and the damage that is being done to Russia’s economy and society. But momentum is shifting toward Ukraine and a Russian defeat looks more and more possible, even likely. The implications of such a scenario would be huge. For starters, the shock of defeat could lead to regime collapse in Russia or even state fragmentation. Were that to happen, China could move to reclaim territories Russia seized in the 19th century, while the Russian Federation’s non-Russian nations could demand autonomy or independence. Russia would be transformed from a superpower into a mid-range state with nukes. Its global influence would collapse. Ukraine could emerge from the war as one of Europe’s most powerful states. That assessment is no longer coming only from Kyiv. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently called Ukraine’s armed forces the “strongest, most powerful” military in Europe, arguing that the war has forced Ukraine to develop new tactics, equipment and technology for “hybrid asymmetrical warfare.” Europe, forced to beef up its security by Donald Trump, would become a more influential international player. If Ukraine defeats Russia, the world will be a very different place — all thanks to the foolhardiness of Putin and the inventiveness of Ukraine.