A Republican appears set to make the November ballot for the first time in years, but California’s Democrat supermajority isn’t going anywhere. Experts predict a Democrat will ultimately win the governor’s race and keep the state under one-party control. “It’s a Democratic state. … I think Steve Hilton will put up a noble effort and will probably help some down-ballot Republicans, but unless [Xavier] Becerra has a massive scandal or something really unusual happens, [he will] beat Hilton,” Christian Grose, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, told the Daily Signal. With 84% of ballots counted as of Tuesday evening, Becerra leads with an estimated 27.7% of the vote, while Hilton trails close behind at 25.1%. Decision Desk HQ on Monday night predicted the current leaders will advance to the top-two primary. The Associated Press has yet to call the second-place challenger. California’s gubernatorial primary election produced few surprises. Last Thursday, Hilton led the race. But over the weekend, Becerra, the expected front-runner, regained the lead and secured his spot in the general election. Billionaire Tom Steyer remains in third place, with 22.4% of the vote. Klink Campaigns President Matt Klink told the Daily Signal before Election Day that if Becerra and Hilton faced off, the Democrat would win. However, he warned that Becerra’s campaign could face issues. “If it’s Becerra versus Hilton, the Becerra campaign would probably be a shell of a campaign and people would go to work for the California Democratic Party to try to pull up other Democrats throughout the state. There’s no way Steve Hilton can win,” he said. Other elections experts agree that, while a Hilton candidacy is exciting for California Republicans, any early celebrations could prove premature. “At some point you’ve got to put on your big boy pants and realize this is a very deep blue state; Republicans aren’t competitive statewide in California,” political strategist Jon Fleischman told the Daily Signal. “The only way that Steve Hilton becomes the governor of California is if there’s an implosion of Swalwell proportions that takes out the Democratic nominee.” In April, former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell, considered to be the Democrat front-runner in the race for governor, abruptly dropped out amid multiple sexual assault allegations. Unless a similar meltdown occurs within the Becerra camp, experts say, Hilton’s chances at victory remain slim. Fleischman further predicted that Hilton’s ties to Trump would become a major talking point for Democrats and make the GOP’s race “very tough.” “Hilton’s got to do everything right,” he said. “Imagine you’re running a track race, and he’s the turtle and Becerra is the hare. The rabbit has got to trip so that the turtle who keeps plodding along can just kind of go past him and win the race. But if the rabbit never trips, the rabbit wins the race,” Fleischman added.  Early on in the campaign, Republican voters were split between Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Despite President Donald Trump’s support for Hilton, the Republican Party failed to endorse a candidate during its April convention. Before Election Day, Hilton urgently called for Bianco to drop out, warning that the split could lead to a double-Democrat ticket. But Bianco stayed in the race, garnering 10.2% of the vote as of Tuesday. Democrats also struggled to rally behind a single candidate. More than 10 party members ran for California’s top office, and Swalwell’s departure caused temporary confusion among the party faithful. And while Becerra emerged as the top Democratic contender, Steyer poured hundreds of millions into his own campaign and kept the race close. California has lived under a Democratic supermajority in the state Legislature for more than a decade, giving one party veto-proof control over the budget and most major policy. The state’s registered voters stand at roughly 45% Democrat, 25% Republican, 23% no party preference, and 7% minor parties or other designations, according to a May 18 report from the California Secretary of State’s office. Notably, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s approval ratings have hovered near or below 50% in recent polling, with many voters expressing frustration over the state’s direction on key issues. For this election cycle, Californians consistently rank the economy, cost of living, and housing affordability as their top concerns. While Fleischman says Hilton is unlikely to win in November, having a Republican at the top of the ticket still matters for down-ballot races. “A vibrant Hilton at the top of the ticket matters for passing voter ID. It matters for passing the Prop 13 ballot measure. It matters … for winning [outgoing state Rep. Darrell] Issa’s seat, and the [Rep. David] Valadao seat,” he said. “[If] you don’t have a Republican on the top of the ticket, you’re going to see a fall-off in Republican turnout.”