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Tim Walz Now Polls Below President Trump in His Own State
Tim Walz is finishing his time as governor of Minnesota underwater with his own voters.
The latest Minnesota Poll puts Walz at 39% approval and 53% disapproval, with 8% unsure.
That is the lowest mark of his eight-year tenure, and a 10-point drop from the year before.
In the same survey, President Trump sits at 41% approval in Minnesota. A Democrat governor now polls behind a Republican president in a state Democrats have carried in every presidential election since 1972.
The 39% number is already being used as a campaign weapon in Minnesota.
Tim Walz has a 39% approval rating. Nobody wants his endorsement.
But it’s mostly funny because Hakeem Jeffries has a 28% approval rating and she’s bragging about it. https://t.co/JWOaWWfeHw
— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) June 20, 2026
The Minnesota Star Tribune reported that Walz is now facing the lowest approval rating of his eight-year tenure as he prepares to leave office. The paper tied the collapse to the damage Minnesota’s fraud scandals have done to his political reputation.
The poll found a majority of likely Minnesota voters disapprove of his performance, while his approval has dropped 10 points from last year. That is a steep slide for a two-term governor in a state his party normally expects to defend.
The paper also noted that Walz has lost ground inside his own coalition. That matters because the problem is no longer limited to Republicans who already opposed him.
Last year, 91% of Minnesota voters who backed Kamala Harris approved of Walz. Now that number is 69%, a warning sign for Democrats trying to run away from his record this fall.
That is the kind of erosion a party cannot hide with national talking points.
The poll was conducted June 8-10, 2026, among 800 likely Minnesota voters by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy for the Star Tribune, KARE 11, and the University of Minnesota Hubbard School of Journalism.
The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The sample broke down to 38% Democrat, 31% Republican, and 31% independent or other.
That last detail makes the number harder to explain away. This is a Democrat-leaning sample, and Walz still cratered.
Fox News added the internal split that shows where the damage is coming from. Its report placed the polling in the middle of the fraud backlash that has followed Walz into his final months in office.
Only 1% of Republicans approved of Walz, along with 73% of Democrats and 32% of independents. Losing two-thirds of independents is how a governor ends up below 40% in a friendly state.
Fox News also reported that 45% of voters said they trust Republicans to fix fraud, while 38% chose Democrats and 14% chose neither. That gives Republicans a seven-point edge on the issue driving the scandal.
That is the political danger for Democrats. The party now has to defend a governor’s approval rating and voters’ trust in state government.
The scandal has moved from committee hearings and court cases into voter trust.
The outlet also pointed to another sore spot in Minnesota politics: the state flag backed by Walz. Half of voters said they disapprove of the redesign, while only about a third approve.
Put it together and Fox’s read is simple: Walz is losing on job performance, fraud credibility, and symbols of state identity at the same time.
A separate KSTP/SurveyUSA poll found the public mood on fraud is even sharper. That survey drilled into blame, severity, and whether Minnesota leaders are taking the problem seriously.
When voters were asked who deserves the most blame for Minnesota’s widespread fraud issues, 36% blamed the criminals themselves and 33% blamed Walz. Another 13% blamed the Legislature, while 17% said someone else or were unsure.
The same poll found 73% said Walz needs to do more to stop fraud and 76% said state lawmakers need to do more. KSTP noted that less than 15% believed those branches had done enough.
On severity, 23% called fraud the single biggest problem in Minnesota and 58% called it a major problem. Only 12% called it minor, which means the scandal has broken through as a day-to-day voter issue.
Add those together and roughly four out of five voters see taxpayer fraud as a serious issue in their state.
That moves it past a narrow partisan complaint and into a statewide confidence problem.
The scrutiny extends beyond voter surveys. The House Oversight Committee released a June staff report alleging that senior Minnesota officials, including Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison, knew of widespread fraud in taxpayer-funded social programs and failed to act.
The committee said its report drew from testimony and documents alleging that state leaders had authority to stop payments, ban fraudulent providers, and respond to warnings, but repeatedly failed to do so. The report’s title accused Walz and Ellison of fueling Minnesota’s fraud explosion.
It also alleged that employees who tried to protect taxpayer funds faced retaliation, allowing schemes to grow inside programs meant for vulnerable people. Those allegations put the polling in a sharper frame.
That is why the numbers matter. The report gave Republicans a paper trail; the polls suggest voters are listening.
Those are allegations, not adjudicated findings. Walz and Ellison have called the Republican-led scrutiny politically motivated in earlier coverage.
But voters appear to have made up their minds about who they trust on the problem, and the answer is not the people in charge.
Minnesota Republicans are happy to drive the point home as Walz’s term winds down.
Tim Walz’s legacy: fraud, fires, and failure. https://t.co/AJD04iCc2h
— Tom Emmer (@GOPMajorityWhip) June 20, 2026
Walz spent a national campaign cycle selling himself as the friendly face of Democrat governance. The voters who know him best just told a very different story.
This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport. View the original article here.
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