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Harley Davidson Facing Armageddon
Insane Throttle News | July 9, 2026
In a move that sent ripples through the motorcycle industry, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Harley-Davidson’s long-term credit rating from BBB- (investment grade) to BB+ on July 9, 2026, officially placing the iconic American motorcycle maker in “junk” bond territory. The agency also lowered the rating on the company’s unsecured debt to BB+ and assigned a stable outlook after removing the company from negative credit watch.
While the term “junk status” sounds dramatic, it primarily signals that S&P now views Harley-Davidson as carrying higher credit risk. The company may face slightly higher borrowing costs if it needs to raise capital, though the stable outlook suggests analysts do not expect further immediate deterioration.
Why the Downgrade Happened
The decision centers on Harley’s “Back to the Bricks” strategic plan, unveiled earlier this year under new CEO Artie Starrs. The initiative aims to reverse years of declining U.S. market share by bringing back more accessible, lower-priced motorcycles — including the return of a traditional air-cooled Sportster 883 in 2027 and the introduction of the more affordable Sprint model later in 2026.
S&P projects that adjusted EBITDA margins will stay under pressure, likely landing in the 5% to 6% range by the end of 2026. That’s a sharp contrast to the more than 16% margins the company posted in 2022 and 2023. The rating agency believes it could take several years for margins to recover toward the 10% level as Harley works to attract new riders and stabilize retail sales.
Harley’s U.S. heavyweight motorcycle registration share has already fallen significantly — from 49.1% in 2019 to a projected 34.5% in 2025. The company hopes its new, more affordable lineup and renewed focus on dealer profitability will reverse that trend.
The “Back to the Bricks” Plan in Context
“Back to the Bricks” is more than a catchy name. It references Harley’s Milwaukee headquarters (often called “the bricks”) and signals a return to in-office work and a more focused product strategy. The plan targets doubling average U.S. dealer return on sales by the end of 2026 and doubling it again by 2029. It emphasizes putting “the right model for every rider” in dealers’ showrooms through a mix of carryover models and targeted new additions.
This represents a notable shift from previous strategies and appears closer in spirit to earlier efforts to broaden Harley’s appeal while still protecting the brand’s core identity.
What It Means for the Motorcycle Community
For riders and dealers, the downgrade itself won’t change the bikes in showrooms tomorrow. However, it highlights the real challenges Harley faces in a competitive market where younger and new riders often find traditional heavyweight pricing intimidating.
The push toward more affordable entry points (models priced around or below $10,000) is being watched closely. Success here could bring fresh blood into the sport and support long-term dealer health. Short-term margin compression is the trade-off S&P is flagging.
Harley’s financial services arm and strong brand loyalty remain important buffers. The company still holds a market capitalization of roughly $2.67 billion and continues to generate significant revenue from motorcycles, parts, accessories, and apparel.
Other major rating agencies have not followed S&P’s lead. Moody’s and Fitch currently maintain investment-grade equivalent ratings for Harley (though Fitch carries a negative outlook).
Looking Ahead
Some valuation metrics suggest the stock may currently be trading at a discount to its estimated fair value, offering a potential margin of safety for investors despite the credit concerns.
The real story for the riding community will be execution. Can Harley deliver compelling, accessible new models that bring in new riders without diluting what makes the brand special to longtime enthusiasts? Will dealers see the promised profitability gains materialize?
“Back to the Bricks” is Harley’s clearest attempt yet to address its shrinking market share head-on. The S&P downgrade serves as a public reminder that turning the ship will take time and that profitability remains under pressure in the near term.
For now, the stable outlook from S&P gives Harley some breathing room. The next several quarters of retail sales data, new model launches, and dealer feedback will tell us whether this strategy is working — or whether more adjustments lie ahead.
This article is based on publicly available information from S&P Global Ratings actions and Harley-Davidson’s strategic announcements. Riders and investors should conduct their own due diligence.
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