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Milky Way vs. Andromeda: New Study Suggests Collision May Be Avoided
For many years, astronomers have predicted that the Andromeda Galaxy, the closest large galaxy to us, is approaching the Milky Way. It is widely believed that this will result in an inevitable collision and merger between the two galaxies in about 4.5 billion years.
The outcome of this event is expected to be the formation of a new, massive elliptical galaxy. However, in this scenario, the Milky Way would cease to exist in its current form, and the Solar System, along with its planets, would occupy a completely different position in the new galaxy, potentially leading to unpredictable changes in its structure.
However, a new study published on the arXiv preprint server suggests that the collision between the Milky Way and the Andromeda Galaxy might not be inevitable, and a cosmic catastrophe could be avoided.
The Milky Way is a barred spiral galaxy around 13.6 billion years old with large pivoting arms stretching out across the cosmos. Our home galaxy’s disk is about 100,000 light-years in diameter and just 1000 light-years thick, according to Las Cumbres Observatory.
For over 100 years, astronomers have observed the Andromeda Galaxy, located 2.5 million light-years away. For decades, predictions have suggested that this large galaxy is gradually moving towards the Milky Way, likely resulting in a head-on collision.
Such collisions are not uncommon in the Universe and often lead to the formation of new galaxies. It is believed that the merger of the two galaxies will produce a gigantic elliptical galaxy.
Several years ago, scientists using data from the Hubble Space Telescope determined that the Andromeda Galaxy is moving towards the Milky Way at a speed of approximately 400,000 km/h.
This led to the conclusion that a cosmic collision could occur in about 4.5 billion years. After the collision, as modeling suggests, the two galaxies would continue to merge over the next 2 billion years.
In the new study, researchers analyzed the movements of the largest galaxies in the Local Group using data from the Gaia and Hubble space telescopes.
These galaxies include the Andromeda Galaxy, with roughly 1 trillion stars; the Milky Way, with about 100-200 billion stars; the Triangulum Galaxy, with around 40 billion stars; and the Large Magellanic Cloud, with approximately 20 billion stars.
These galaxies have different masses, and thus, different gravitational influences. Scientists believe that the gravitational interactions between these galaxies could alter their trajectories over the next 10 billion years, as simulation data suggests.
Astronomers now estimate that there is only a 50% chance that the Andromeda Galaxy and the Milky Way will collide and merge during this period. In other words, the scenario of an inevitable collision, as suggested by past studies, is not certain. The study’s authors propose that the Milky Way could avoid such a fate and continue to exist as a separate galaxy.
Nevertheless, there remains significant uncertainty in these calculations, and astronomers will continue to observe nearby galaxies to refine their understanding.
Even if the collision between the Andromeda Galaxy and the Milky Way does occur in 4.5 billion years, by that time, the Sun may have already reached the end of its life cycle, transforming into a red giant and potentially destroying the Earth.
By then, humanity may have already left our planet and settled other worlds—perhaps not even within the Solar System, as its structure may be disrupted by the merging galaxies.
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