Whether you’re a fan of Donald Trump or a detractor, one thing is inarguable: the president’s first year of his second term has been consequential. As in extremely consequential; he and his administration are having an effect on virtually every walk of life, from social issues to the economy to immigration (both legal and illegal) to, well, everything.

Including crime. And on that front, the news is good, as least when it comes to killings:

The U.S. appears headed for the largest one-year drop in murders in history, according to a well-known crime analyst.

That's the conclusion of crime statistics expert Jeff Asher, who says new national data show killings plunging at a pace not seen in modern recordkeeping.

According to Asher's Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), the United States is on track for the biggest single-year decline in murders ever recorded — a striking reversal after the COVID-era crime surge.

In the above quote, Newsmax uses the term the “COVID-era” crime surge; however, I would term it the “lawless Biden-era” crime surge. In any case, the Department of Homeland Security is pleased:

Here at DHS we’ve been operating by this radical idea that removing murderers from our country would bring down the murder rate.

Who could have guessed it would work? https://t.co/SRbnLhSiQm

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) December 24, 2025

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The administration had indicated previously that murder rates were improving, and new numbers bolster their claim.

Last month, FBI Director Kash Patel said the 2025 homicide rate will be the lowest in "modern history," crediting a bureau-wide shift toward fighting violent crime.

Independent analysts such as Asher say the data strongly point in that direction…

RTCI [Real-Time Crime Index] data currently available through October show murders down nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024.

Although former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino has decided to move on from his position, presumably to return to his role as a successful conservative radio host, he nevertheless likes what he sees:

This is what happens when you mix a President with a vision of safer streets, with a team dedicated to implementing the vision.
Talk is cheap, results matter. pic.twitter.com/3i6G9CQzoB

— Dan Bongino (@dbongino) December 24, 2025

Our nation’s metropolitan areas are where we’re seeing the biggest declines, and it’s not due to woke, George Soros-backed prosecutors, criminal-friendly “reformative justice,” or Dem-appointed judges who run a revolving door legal system in places like New York City and Los Angeles.

Cities harmed by gun violence have begun to see a steady decline in murders. Albuquerque, N.M., which ranks in the Top 10 nationally for per-capita murder rate, experienced a 32.3 percent decrease in fatalities, according to Asher.

Baltimore, another city on the list, saw a 30.9 percent drop in murders from 2024 to 2025. 

Atlanta saw a 26.2 percent decrease in murder, while Birmingham, Ala., recorded the highest drop at 49 percent, Asher reported.

In contrast to leftists' ever-growing tolerance for crime, Trump has taken the opposite tack, and the FBI under his watch has returned to fighting criminals instead of school board members. He’s also sent the National Guard into places like D.C. and New Orleans to clamp down on violence.

His efforts are clearly showing results.

Editor’s Note: The Trump administration is focused on locking up violent criminals and restoring order. 

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