Surprise Poll Shows Republican Leading Wide-Open Gubernatorial Field In Deep-Blue State
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Surprise Poll Shows Republican Leading Wide-Open Gubernatorial Field In Deep-Blue State

A surprising new poll in California shows Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, as the front-runner in the state’s gubernatorial election. The poll, conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, had Bianco leading at 13 percent. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), who was the clear favorite over the summer, has watched her support plummet after a meltdown with a television reporter during an October interview. Porter had 11 percent support in the recent poll. The race is wide open, with nearly half of likely voters still undecided. Deranged Candidate For CA Governor FREAKS OUT On Reporter Asking Softball Question The Los Angeles Times provided additional details: Still, nearly half of the registered voters surveyed remain undecided, evidence that few Californians are paying attention to a race that remains wide open and was eclipsed in recent months by the costly and successful congressional redistricting battle that became a referendum on President Trump. Porter remains the most favored Democratic candidate, which is significant in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2006. “She’s the leading Democrat among the various ones that are in there right now,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll. “But it’s because nobody really on the Democratic side has really jumped out of the pack. It’s kind of a political vacuum at the moment.” The governor’s race was frozen in stasis for most of the year, first as Californians waited for former Vice President Kamala Harris to decide whether she was going to jump into the race. It wasn’t until late July that Harris announced, no, she was not running. Then, weeks later, Californians became captivated by a special election to reconfigure the state’s congressional districts — which set off a furious, expensive and high-stakes political battle that could help decide which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives. Now that the special election is over, gubernatorial candidates can “rev up the public to pay attention,” DiCamillo said. “It’s the time for someone to break through,” he said. California Governor top 2 Primary by UC/Berkeley (A) ? Chad Bianco: 13% (+3)? Katie Porter: 11% (-6)? Steve Hilton: 8% (+2)? Xavier Becerra: 8% (-1)? A. Villaraigosa: 5% (+1)? Betty Yee: 3%? Rick Caruso: 3%? Thurmond: 1%? Cloobeck 1%? Calderon: 1%——Katie… pic.twitter.com/d7A8qV7M9s — InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 7, 2025 According to Newsweek, California's system allows candidates from all parties to compete in the same primary. Ultimately, the top two candidates, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election. The Golden State's general election could theoretically be a race between two Democrats, the outlet noted. California "jungle primary" rules: The TOP 2 VOTE-GETTERS of ANY PARTY are the "primary election" winners who then advance to the November runoff. Bianco and Hilton are each leading in two separate polls: 11/7/25 Berkeley IGS poll of 8,141 registered voters: Bianco 13%,… pic.twitter.com/kAyD6s4FHM — SaveCalifornia.com (@savecalifornia) November 7, 2025 Newsweek shared other polling results: The latest public polling was conducted by Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin on behalf of Villaraigosa's campaign. It showed four candidates in close contention, but Bianco, who has been the sheriff for Riverside County since 2019, came out on top with a very slim lead. Bianco, a supporter of President Donald Trump, had the highest level of support in the survey at 20 percent. Villaraigosa came in second at 19 percent, and GOP candidate Hilton, a former Fox News host and current contributor to the network, was third at 18 percent. Porter placed fourth with 15 percent. Notably, the pollster highlighted Porter's recent controversies in its survey questions, asking respondents if they had heard of the recent issues and whether it would affect their vote. Seventy-two percent said they about Porter’s controversies and that it would make them less likely to vote for her. The poll results were released on November 3 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. In October, Emerson College surveyed 900 likely voters in California, showing Hilton in the lead with 16 percent support, followed by Porter at 15 percent. Bianco held third place with 11 percent. Two Democrats—Villaraigosa and former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra—each received 5 percent. Other candidates remained in the single digits. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The survey was notable because Hilton gained four points since Emerson College's previous poll, conducted August 4 to 5, among 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. In that earlier poll, Hilton registered 12 percent and Porter led with 18 percent, indicating a 3-point decline for Porter and a corresponding rise for Hilton.