BY THE OPTIMIST DAILY EDITORIAL TEAM For years, headlines have warned that Earth is entering a sixth mass extinction. But new research suggests that this dire picture may be more nuanced, and even somewhat hopeful. A study by Kristen Saban and John Wiens of the University of Arizona‘s Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology reveals that extinction rates for plants, arthropods, and land vertebrates have actually declined over the past 100 years. Their paper, published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, is the first to analyze extinction patterns and causes across such a wide range of species. Using data from nearly two million species, the researchers tracked 912 that went extinct over the last five centuries. They discovered that extinction rates peaked roughly a century ago and have since slowed across many major groups. “We show that extinction rates are not getting faster towards the present, as many people claim, but instead peaked many decades ago,” said Wiens. “For some groups, such as arthropods, plants, and land vertebrates, extinction rates have actually declined since the early 1900s.” Why past assumptions don’t match the present So why have previous studies painted a more catastrophic picture? According to Saban and Wiens, much of the past research extrapolated modern trends from historic data, assuming that if species disappeared at a certain rate in the past, they would continue to do so in the future. But this approach ignores the fact that the causes of extinctions have changed dramatically over time. “We discovered that the causes of those recent extinctions were very different from the threats species are currently facing,” Wiens explained. Historically, invasive species on islands caused many losses. Today, the main culprits are habitat destruction and, increasingly, climate change. The study found that most extinctions occurred among mollusks, snails, and vertebrates restricted to islands such as Hawaii. On continents, most losses happened in freshwater ecosystems, where habitat destruction played the biggest role. Interestingly, the researchers found no evidence that climate change has yet driven higher extinction rates in the past 200 years, though Wiens cautioned that this does not mean climate change isn’t an urgent threat. “It just means that past extinctions do not reflect current and future threats,” he clarified. Conservation is making a difference Another factor that may explain the recent decline in extinction rates: the global push for conservation. From habitat protection to captive breeding, countless efforts over the past century have helped stabilize species once on the brink. “Many people are working hard to keep species from going extinct,” said Wiens. “And we have evidence from other studies that investing money in conservation actually works.” The researchers also analyzed threat levels for 163,000 species using data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Their findings showed that while many extinct species were island-dwelling mollusks or vertebrates, today’s most threatened species are primarily mainland species facing habitat loss. “The current threat level provides probably our best hint of what is currently happening and might happen in the near future,” Wiens said. A call for rigorous, realistic hope Lead author Kristen Saban, now a doctoral student at Harvard University, emphasized that the findings are not a reason for complacency. “Biodiversity loss is a huge problem right now, and I think we have not yet seen the kinds of effects that it might have,” she said. “But it’s important that we talk about it with accuracy—that our science is rigorous in how we’re able to detail these losses and prevent future ones.” Rather than leaning into doomsday rhetoric, Saban and Wiens hope their work inspires data-driven optimism. By understanding what has and hasn’t worked in the past, conservationists can focus resources where they matter most. “If we’re saying that what is happening right now is like an asteroid hitting Earth, then the problem becomes insurmountable,” Saban explained. “By looking at the data in this way, we hope our study helps inform better ways to address biodiversity loss.” Source study: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences— Unpacking the extinction crisis: rates, patterns and causes of recent extinctions in plants and animalsThe post Extinction rates are slowing—and conservation efforts may be paying off first appeared on The Optimist Daily: Making Solutions the News.