President Trump wants to bring about regime change in both Cuba and Iran. Either would be good for U.S. national security but neither is likely. Why? Mr. Trump has urged Cuba to make a deal “before it is too late.” He has said there would be no more Venezuelan oil going to Cuba and, also, no more money to the Cuban regime. Cuba’s economy is a shambles. The supposed cutoff of Venezuelan oil to Cuba will make matters far worse. The Cuban economy, as my late great friend Jose Sorzano used to say, is a function of the regime. It is, as Jose said often, “No hay. No te toca” — “There isn’t any. It’s not your turn.” (Jose, more accurately Ambassador Jose Sorzano, was Jeanne Kirkpatrick’s deputy at the UN in the Reagan administration.) Jose was of Cuban heritage and hated the Castro regime. But he was right about the Cuban economy which was chronically short of everyday items including food. But the facts are what they are and we’re all stuck with them. The Cuban regime (which goes back to 1959 when Fidel Castro, after a years-long guerilla war campaign, threw out Fulgencio Batista) is now headed by Miguel Diaz-Canal. The Cuban people have as little to say about who governs them as the people of Arab states, China, or Russia. The problem with regime change in Cuba is that there’s no obvious  successors to the Castro regime. There are a few in government and elsewhere (mostly in the U.S.) who want regime change. But they are without resources to bring it about or likely followers who would fight to overthrow the regime. Which is to say that while regime change in Cuba is desirable, it’s not at all likely. Trump must realize that the time for negotiations with Iran has passed. The choice is between attacking Iran and appeasing it. The truth about Iran is even worse. Iran still threatens to attack Israel and U.S. bases in the Middle East. Last week it sent a drone, probably to attack our carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln. The drone was shot down. Iranian gunboats tried to surround a U.S.-flagged oil tanker and were driven off on the same day. Iran is willing to talk about a new nuclear weapons deal but — contrary to Mr. Trump’s desires — it won’t talk about the Iranian missile program or uranium enrichment. In short, everything Iranian for which we need to negotiate is off limits. President Trump’s emissaries have held talks with the Iranians as recently as Friday. The talks went nowhere as anyone even remotely informed about the ayatollahs’ regime in Iran could have predicted. The Iranian regime is entirely belligerent and doesn’t respect American negotiators or America itself. The ayatollahs may fear another U.S. attack. The June 2025 U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities using B-2 bombers and ground-penetrating weapons certainly created fear for Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but the attack is fading into memory. In at least one respect, the Iranian situation resembles that of Cuba: there is no group of revolutionaries capable of toppling the regime. The followers of the son of the late shah, Reza Pahlavi, have — along with many other Iranians — been demonstrating for freedom. But they have been ruthlessly put down by the ayatollahs. An unknown number — possibly exceeding 15,000 — have been killed. The regime is clearly still in charge. On January 2, President Trump said we were “locked and loaded” and “ready to go” to intervene in Iran. But he hasn’t pulled the trigger on that intervention. He prefers negotiations to war. But he must also think about Iran’s record in negotiations and realize that they won’t do anything to change their behavior. That includes their sponsorship of terrorism around the world. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have both threatened attacks on U.S. bases and on Israel if the U.S. attacks Iran again. They are almost certainly not bluffing. Their missiles can reach Israel and those bases. So what can Mr. Trump do? If we attack Iran the regime will start a wider war that we are unprepared to handle. Nevertheless, Trump should attack Iran. Another B-2 raid, this time on Iran’s missile bases and capabilities, could prevent them from starting a wider war, but that is a risk the president has to take. As this column explained last week, any raid on Iran won’t be enough. It is time to attack the ayatollahs themselves and strengthen Iranian would-be revolutionaries by supplying them with communications equipment and arms sufficient to overthrow the regime. Mr. Trump’s efforts in Ukraine, in Gaza, and in Cuba haven’t accomplished much. Russia’s war on Ukraine is apparently stalemated, Hamas refuses to disarm and the Cuban revolutionaries are almost non-existent. Trump must realize that the time for negotiations with Iran has passed. The choice is between attacking Iran and appeasing it. READ MORE from Jed Babbin: Iran and the New Domino Theory   From Outrage to Agreement: Trump’s Greenland Gambit Trump and Greenland: A NATO Test