Karl Rove is warning Republicans that even Texas—long treated like safe ground—could slip in 2026 if Latino support keeps sliding. Rove’s Texas Warning Puts the Senate Map Back in Play Karl Rove used a recent appearance on Fox News’ Journal Editorial Report to argue the 2026 midterms could turn on a basic problem: Republicans cannot assume Texas will hold if key voters drift away. Rove framed the state as central to keeping GOP control of the House and Senate, describing Texas as a “real mess” if current trends persist and Democratic incumbents remain difficult to dislodge. Rove’s message is not that Republicans suddenly become the minority in Texas overnight. His warning is narrower and more tactical: small shifts in turnout and persuasion in competitive districts can break a majority. When the Senate margin is tight, a single seat can decide the chamber, and Texas is no longer immune from the national push-and-pull of voter moods, issue salience, and candidate quality. Latino Support Softens in Districts Trump Barely Carried Rove highlighted South Texas districts where Trump’s 2024 margins were thin, including a corridor running from Corpus Christi to Brownsville that Trump reportedly carried by about a point. He also cited Rep. Henry Cuellar’s district, where Trump’s 2024 performance was described as a mid-single-digit win. Those numbers matter because a modest swing—driven by economic dissatisfaction, immigration messaging, or local dynamics—can flip a House seat even without a major statewide shift. The same coverage cites post-2024 polling that paints a rougher picture for Republicans with Hispanic voters. An Economist/YouGov snapshot put Trump’s approval among Hispanic respondents at 36%, with roughly 70% disapproval. Another poll discussion referenced public unease over immigration enforcement, underscoring how quickly the political ground can move when headlines focus on enforcement actions and controversies. The research does not provide a full poll crosstab, but the toplines align with Rove’s caution. Gerrymandering Isn’t a Substitute for Durable Coalitions Rove’s argument also doubles as a critique of overreliance on mapmaking. Texas Republicans benefited from redistricting advantages after the 2021 redraws, and the research notes the GOP’s long history of pushing aggressive redistricting strategies. Rove’s point, as summarized in the reporting, is that even favorable lines have limits when a party’s support in a target community declines. A shrinking coalition eventually overwhelms structural advantages, especially in fast-changing regions. For conservative voters frustrated by years of Washington overspending, inflation pressure, and the political gamesmanship that often replaces governance, the Texas conversation offers a practical takeaway: elections are won with persuasion and turnout, not just clever district boundaries. If voters believe the economy is not improving fast enough, or that the immigration debate is chaotic, they can punish incumbents regardless of which party drew the lines. The Cuellar Pardon Created New Complications in a Must-Win Area The reporting also centers on a political subplot Republicans expected to help them: President Trump’s December 2025 pardon of Rep. Henry Cuellar and his wife on bribery-related charges. According to the research summary, the pardon was followed by expectations—at least among some Republicans—that Cuellar might switch parties. Cuellar did not. That refusal matters because it kept an entrenched Democrat in place in a district Republicans viewed as increasingly reachable. Trump then moved to back Cuellar’s Republican opponent, signaling that the GOP still wants the seat. Rove’s caution, however, is that “unlikely” races remain unlikely if voter sentiment shifts the wrong way, and if incumbency advantages hold. The research does not provide fresh district polling, so the strongest available support for the warning comes from the broader Hispanic approval numbers and Rove’s on-air assessment of softness in precisely the areas Republicans need to improve. A Special Election Shock Signals Vulnerability—But Not Destiny Adding to the concern, the research cites a recent Texas state senate special election in which Democrat Taylor Rehmet won by 14 points in a district described as Trump +17. That result does not automatically translate to a general midterm environment, but it does reinforce Rove’s warning that local races can break expectations when one side is better organized, better messaged, or simply more motivated. Trump publicly downplayed the contest as a local matter. Karl Rove Warns GOP It Has to Worry About Losing the Senate in Midterms — And 'Real Mess' in Texas https://t.co/8yhg0OpvKy — Mediaite (@Mediaite) February 9, 2026 The broader midterm lesson is straightforward: Republicans cannot bank Senate control on yesterday’s coalition, and Democrats cannot bank it on Republican complacency. Rove’s warning is rooted in measurable indicators—narrow 2024 margins in South Texas districts and polling that shows steep Hispanic disapproval. If GOP leaders respond by tightening local outreach and focusing on kitchen-table concerns, Texas remains winnable; if not, the “real mess” becomes a national problem. Sources: Karl Rove Warns GOP It Has to Worry About Losing the Senate in Midterms — And ‘Real Mess’ in Texas Republican Guru Karl Rove Warns Biggest Red State Is Turning on Trump The Midterms Are Democrats’ to Lose