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Trump’s NATO Dilemma

President Trump has made no secret of his disdain for our NATO allies. In the past month or so, he has called them “cowards” and NATO a “paper tiger.” But, as I have written elsewhere, his notion that we should just get out of NATO is blocked by both the NATO Treaty and by a specific U.S. law that requires either a resolution passed by both houses of Congress or a two-thirds vote of the Senate. Neither is going to happen. Mr. Trump, as commander-in-chief, has constitutional authority to remove troops from the nations that have refused us the use of our bases to attack Iran. The United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, and Germany have all refused use of our bases there or use of their airspace or both. Congress can block Mr. Trump’s plan but it would have to do so by removing authority for him to spend money to move the troops. Anything more — or less — would be constitutionally defective. Let’s hope that other, more friendly NATO nations receive the benefits. Mr. Trump is stuck with the NATO Treaty and must make the best of it. We now know that Mr. Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have ordered a troop reduction of 5,000 from Germany. Mr. Trump has said we will move a lot more troops out of Germany. These troops could be stationed in more friendly nations, perhaps Poland, or they could be brought back to the U.S. But the movement of troops out of Germany may be only the beginning. At present, we have about 35,000 troops in Germany, 12,000 in Italy, 10,000 in the UK and almost 4,000 in Spain. The U.S. is the largest contributor of troops to NATO. Barring congressional interference, any or all of those troops could be relocated at the president’s pleasure. Perhaps they should be. There have been objections to troop pullouts from NATO countries. The most prominent of those has been that it would hamper our ability to project power. But that has already been done by the NATO nations refusing to let us use our bases to attack Iran. Another, more reasonable, objection is that we should fight European wars in Europe, not in our homeland. If Russia attacked Estonia, for example, we would be stuck — under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty — to come to the Estonians’ defense. The Europeans need Ukraine a bit more than the Ukrainians need Europe. Yes, the Europeans have been supplying Ukraine with defensive systems but their contributions — counting the €100 billion that the European Union has loaned Ukraine recently — have been important but insufficient to break the stalemate in that war. The Russian war of conquest began, really, in 2014 when the Russians took the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. The Russian war, as most people see it, began in February 2022 when the Russians began attacking Ukraine with missiles, drones, and aircraft. We cannot and should not move troops to Ukraine while the war is going on. But there are a number of more friendly NATO nations to which they could be moved. For example, if the Russians attacked Estonia, the Estonians have few combat-ready troops composed of two light infantry brigades, artillery, and support battalions, heavily focused on territorial defense and NATO integration. (Some British troops are integrated into the Estonian army.) They would need — urgently — reinforcement from the U.S. If we had troops already stationed there it might have a deterrent effect on Russia. Other nations, which are more supportive of the U.S. effort in Iran, could also be reinforced. Poland has the third-largest forces within NATO comprised of sea, land, air forces, and a special operations group. Our forces, if augmented by troop transfers to Poland, could have both a deterrent effect on Russia and, if a fight broke out, could be the difference between victory and defeat. Polish forces are tough. Their special operations force is, as my pals in that world have told me, are very good at what they do. Their air forces fly some of the latest aircraft, both F-16s and MiG-29s as well as helicopters and support aircraft. If we were to move all of our troops in Germany and other NATO nations to Poland, assuming that the Poles would welcome them, they could be both an enormously effective deterrent and — with our air forces now stationed in Italy and Spain — could mount a hugely effective effort if Russia attacked Poland or any of the other NATO nations. Messrs. Trump and Hegseth haven’t announced where the troops from Germany and, presumably, other less friendly NATO nations will go. They — and our aircraft now in Italy and Spain — should be stationed in other NATO nations where they will do a lot of good whether a Russian attack occurs or not. It’s certain that negotiations are going on now regarding where our troops and aircraft will be redeployed. Let’s hope that other, more friendly NATO nations receive the benefits. Mr. Trump is stuck with the NATO Treaty and must make the best of it. READ MORE from Jed Babbin: A World Still at War Hormuz in the Crosshairs The Limits of the Bombing Pause