Prediction markets are flashing a number that should worry Senate Democrats and encourage Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm cycle: the GOP is now favored to hold the upper chamber. As of May 9, 2026, both major prediction market platforms show Republicans ahead in the race for Senate control. The shift is modest in raw percentage points, yet the direction is clear after mid-April numbers had Republicans slipping into the mid-40s on some platforms. Prediction Markets Show GOP Now Favored To Hold Chamber Of Congress. https://t.co/UUvNgQrqye#DiamondandSilk — Diamond and Silk® (@DiamondandSilk) May 9, 2026 Solflare’s election market page showed the Kalshi-linked Senate contract this way: Solflare’s market for “Which party will win the U.S. Senate? In 2026” showed the Republican Party ahead when checked on May 9, 2026. The page listed Republicans at 58%, with Yes contracts priced at 58 cents and No contracts at 43 cents. The same page listed the Democratic Party at 44%, with Yes contracts priced at 44 cents and No contracts at 57 cents. In plain terms, traders were pricing the Republican Senate-control side higher than the Democratic side. The market’s rule language also defines how the contract settles. It says the Republican market resolves Yes if the Republican Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026. Victory is determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027, with the outcome verified through the Library of Congress. The page also lists participation prohibitions covering candidates, campaign staffers, party employees, PAC employees, major polling organization employees, members of Congress, congressional staffers, immediate family members, and source-agency employees. That 58% figure represents a roughly 10-point climb from where Republicans sat in mid-April, when some traders were briefly pricing Democratic control as the more likely outcome.