A recent poll conducted by Change Research showed Democrat David Jolly leading Republican Byron Donalds in a hypothetical Florida gubernatorial general election. “David Jolly leads Byron Donalds 46% to 42% with registered voters who say they will likely vote. Jolly is consolidating Democrats and leads the all-important Florida NPA by 18 points (46% to 28%) with apparent room to grow. Byron Donalds lags Donald Trump’s performance with Hispanics by 10 points, with only 30% of Puerto Ricans and 50% of Cubans currently supporting him,” Change Research wrote. A 1,600-person poll by Change Research shows Democrat David Jolly leading Republican Byron Donalds by four points in projections for Florida’s gubernatorial election. Donalds has few achievements to his credit; instead, Donalds record is marked by his passionate defense of… pic.twitter.com/PUbH0V9yFY — AF Post (@AFpost) May 20, 2026 “70% of Floridians say they are falling behind the cost of living. 65% do not think Florida is affordable for them or their family,” Change Research wrote. “Democrats’ vote motivation is 13 points higher than Republicans (88% to 75%), which explains the recent special election wins for Democrats, as well as a Democrat being elected Mayor of Miami by 19 points, the first in 30 years,” it added. Newsweek shared further: A survey commissioned by Freedom Project USA and conducted online by Change Research, a Democratic-aligned polling firm, shows Democratic former Representative David Jolly narrowly leading Republican Representative Byron Donalds in a potential general election matchup for governor, offering an early signal that the race may be tighter than Florida’s recent Republican dominance might imply. It also shows Democratic retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vindman narrowly leading Republican Senator Ashley Moody with likely voters in a key race as Democrats try to take control of the Senate, while Democrat José Javier Rodríguez leads in the state attorney general’s race against incumbent James Uthmeier. A spokesperson for Donalds’ campaign directed Newsweek to a post on X from chief strategist Ryan Smith, who dismissed the survey as unreliable, pointing to its Democratic links and writing: “The fact is Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds will be Florida’s next governor.” Smith called the poll “pure bulls***.” He said the poll had the following red flags: No demos Pollster who had Kamala winning in 24 Pollster for Dems No demos +Pollster who had Kamala winning in 24 + Pollster for Dems = % pure bullshit. The fact is Trump-endorsed @ByronDonalds will be Florida’s next governor. Have a nice day. https://t.co/SgN0yUWB9k — Ryan Smith (@RyanSmithFL) May 18, 2026 “Floridians are fed up with Ashley Moody’s failed leadership that is driving up the cost of gas, groceries, insurance, rent and other essentials,” Albert Fujii, a spokesman for the Vindman campaign, told Newsweek. “We are going to win in November because Alex’s Florida First Agenda to cut costs and fight corruption is resonating with not just Democrats, but Republicans and Independents as well. We are all gas, no brakes,” he added. FLORIDA POLL Governor David Jolly: 46% Byron Donalds: 42%—Senate Alex Vindman: 47% Ashley Moody: 45%@ChangePolls | 5/13-16 | 1,593 LVhttps://t.co/cwU3WssTB2 pic.twitter.com/BqX9x9U0if — InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 18, 2026 In contrast, a poll conducted by Cherry Communications showed Donalds leading Jolly by eight points. NEW POLL: Republicans will easily win the race to succeed Ron DeSantis as Florida governor. Florida – 2026 GovernorByron Donalds 47% (+8)David Jolly 39% This is in stark contrast to 2018, when DeSantis won his first term as governor by just 0.39%. Cherry Communications… pic.twitter.com/PJLt5s1hRS — Election Time (@ElectionTime_) May 16, 2026 Donalds will face investor James Fishback, Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, and several other candidates in the GOP primary. Florida Governor GOP Primary Byron Donalds: 46% James Fishback: 35% Not sure: 19%——• Age 17-25: Fishback +40• Age 26-35: Donalds +6• Age 46-55: Donalds +21• Age 56-65: Fishback +2• Age 76+: Donalds +23@TPSIOfficial | 5/13-14 | 750 LV… pic.twitter.com/SXGVj06WhT — InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 18, 2026 Mediaite has more: In the GOP primary for governor, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) scored the Trump endorsement and has consistently polled well above the rest of the field, with Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former Speaker of the Florida House Paul Renner, and James Fishback all struggling at least 25 points behind Donalds over the past few months. On the Democratic side, David Jolly, who previously represented a Pinellas County congressional district as a Republican before switching parties in 2018, is the frontrunner over Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, although by a narrower margin. Senate candidates include Lt. Col. (ret.) Alex Vindman, who testified against Trump during his first impeachment, and State Rep. Angie Nixon. For attorney general, former state legislator and assistant secretary of labor for the Biden administration José Javier Rodriguez is all but certain to be the primary winner; one other candidate has raised only $6,600 (mostly from a $5,000 personal loan from the candidate) compared to Rodriguez raising over half a million dollars as of the end of March. A new poll by Change Research showing optimistic numbers for Jolly, Vindman, and Rodriguez over the Republican competition got buzz on social media Monday, and the head-to-head numbers don’t tell the whole story, but they do highlight critical weaknesses for the GOP and possible pathways to victory for the Democrats. The poll, which was commissioned by Freedom Project USA, surveyed 2,070 registered voters in Florida from May 13 to 16 via the online platform SurveyMonkey. Of this sample, 1,583 identified as likely to vote in the November 2026 election. The margin of error is 2.3%. Change Research’s methodology memo says that the respondents were recruited through “targeted advertisements on Facebook and Instagram, as well as across the web via Facebook’s ad platform” and “text messages sent, via the Switchboard platform, to cell phone numbers listed on the voter file for individuals who qualified for the survey’s sample universe, based on their voter file data.” The memo added that “[p]ost-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, 2024 presidential vote, and region,” with the “weighting parameters…based on the demographic composition of registered voters in Florida, based on voter file data” from the Florida Secretary of State. When respondents were asked how they were registered to vote, 34% said Democrat, 46% said Republican, 19% said Independent, and 2% said some other party.