A historian with a perfect record of predicting the results of American presidential elections for 40 years stated that despite the polls‚ President Biden still has a lead over former President Trump — but cautioned he won’t make a prediction until August. American University professor Allan Lichtman‚ who has infallibly predicted every election since 1984‚ created along with Russian mathematical geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok a prediction model of 13 keys which they published in a 1981 paper‚ later expanding the number of keys to 13. Lichtman then published his book “The Keys to the White House‚” later reissued as “Predicting the Next President: The Keys To The White House.” “A lot of things would have to go wrong [for the election keys] to go against Biden‚” Lichtman told Market Watch. “But they could. I am very careful in not making a prediction.” He said that Biden currently leads Trump in five of the keys‚ while Trump leads in three‚ with the rest undecided. The 13 keys include: Midterm gains: After the midterm elections‚ the incumbent party holds more seats in House than after the previous midterm elections. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman said Biden led Trump in key# 2‚ as Biden has not faced a serious challenger in his own party; key #3‚ as he is the incumbent; key #6‚ claiming the long-term economic trend is headed upward; key # 7‚ that Biden has made major changes‚ and #13‚ explaining that a challenger should have broadly bipartisan support or be a national hero in the way former President Dwight Eisenhower was after World war II. Trump leads in keys 1‚ 11‚ and 12‚ Lichtman opined‚ pointing out (#1) that the Democrats do not hold more seats in House than after the previous midterm elections; (#11) Biden has not had a major foreign policy win‚ and (#12) Biden is neither charismatic nor a national hero. Key #9 would depend on the American people feeling that the Biden administration is tainted by a major scandal. Lichtman argued that the Trump campaign has not been able to convince the general public‚ not just Republicans‚ of a major scandal involving the Biden administration. CLICK HERE TO GET THE DAILYWIRE+ APP “Here is the secret to being a successful forecaster‚” Lichtman said. “The most important thing is keeping your own personal views out of it. I’ve called about as many Republican wins and Democratic wins. In 2016 I was virtually alone in predicting a win for Donald Trump.”