Newly minted Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been saying all the right things. His immediate maneuvers on DEI and deportations have set a promising tone. However, his department warrants more tempered optimism than most. For one, his 99-0 Senate confirmation indicates U.S. foreign policy might not have major shakeups in store. More importantly, Rubio’s hawkish track record suggests regime-change adventurism is firmly on the table. The analysis thus far has focused on Latin America, where Secretary Rubio has deep personal and political ties, as well as Iran and China. The new Trump administration is maneuvering to end the war in Eastern Europe though, while unrest is simmering nearby in Serbia and Slovakia. The latter especially presents a policy-defining scenario, as it is an EU and NATO member and a direct neighbor of Ukraine. Setting the Stage Over the last month, protesters have gathered in Slovakian cities, a development that has been commonplace in the 30-plus years since the “Velvet Divorce” delivered full independence on Jan. 1, 1993. Western media have eagerly floated the idea that these events could topple the government of four-time prime minister and recent gunshot survivor Robert Fico. (READ MORE: Robert Fico, Consummate Survivor) The prime minister resumed his role after the September 2023 parliamentary elections, following nearly a year of unelected technocratic rule. (To curb the political momentum of Fico and his allies, the sitting president chose to delay elections after the ruling government collapsed, and the appointed government persisted despite rejection from parliament.) Slovakian society has remained fiercely divided since that time. Liberal Bratislava, the seat of one of the wealthiest regions behind the former Iron Curtain, is effectively a Slavic extension of the Vienna metro area, and it reliably supports pro-EU and leftist parties. Rural Slovakia, which has particularly suffered since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, is more sympathetic to the current government. Recently, one television broadcaster said the quiet part out loud when he dismissively called pro-government voters “rurals.” There is no evidence to suggest the May 2024 assassination attempt on Fico was anything other than the act of a single lunatic. Nonetheless, as in the United States, there is a feeling that this particular politician did not have the institutional protection that others would. Symbolically, prominent graffiti threatening Fico and calling him a Russian asset remained in Bratislava’s central business district long after the shooting. Tensions with Brussels have heightened as well. In September, the EU threatened to withhold billions of euros over “rule of law” concerns. (Similar concerns evaporated for Poland after it elected a liberal government under Donald Tusk, and Brussels has continued to apply these unprecedented measures to sovereigntist Hungary.) Another flashpoint occurred when Ukraine announced it would discontinue the transit of Russian gas to Europe at the end of 2024, a measure especially detrimental to neighboring states like Slovakia. Bratislava and Budapest both threatened to veto the next round of EU sanctions on Russia, and institutional indignation was swift. These are some of the factors that purportedly sparked the latest round of protests in December. The demonstrations have continued sporadically and spiked on Jan. 24. Speakers have held white roses, evocative of previous color revolutions. Government officials warned of a coup attempt, and Fico jockeyed with opposition figures over intelligence reports and calls for a no-confidence vote. Then, due to conflicts over personal ambition, two parliamentarians from the ruling coalition were expelled from their party, shrinking the government’s narrow parliamentary majority and leading observers to speculate about the collapse of the Fico government. Some in the West have smelled regime change in the air. Excuse the recounting of some exceedingly petty details, but it is important to note the performative nature of these protests, which are conducted for Western media consumption. Western Meddling in Slovakia First, corporate media is reporting protesters are enraged that Fico wants to take Slovakia out of the EU and NATO. Neither Fico nor any other significant government figure has advocated this; in fact, Fico has said the opposite. Deutsche Welle quoted one protester who claimed, “I have feared for my safety ever since Fico won the election.” A ludicrous idea in present-day Slovakia, where such behavior would draw intense international pressure. (By contrast, Donald Tusk’s liberal government in Poland has overseen police excesses against protesters and arrests of political opponents.) One leaked email from protest organizers expressed a need for more Slovakian flags, as opposed to the predominant EU, Ukrainian, and American varieties; yet corporate media stories reliably depict the Slovakian flags. English-language reports have generally cited a figure of 60,000 protesters in Bratislava’s Jan. 24 protests, a high-end estimate and likely an exaggeration. “Peace for Ukraine,” one NGO at the center of these protests, materialized recently, and it has demonstrated impressive choreography and media reach. Pro- and anti-government figures have bickered over how many of the protesters are Ukrainians and other foreigners, and the government has vowed to deport those without a legal right to stay. Notably, Fico resigned from a previous premiership in 2018, after a round of street protests following the mafia killing of a journalist couple. Fico has vowed this time is different. “We are too seasoned and experienced for some NGOs and some Ukrainian and Georgian guards [historical term for an armed volunteer force] to subvert our state,” he proclaimed. Last week, Slovakia barred entry to a Georgian military volunteer and nine others, claiming they had a role in opposition plots. Speculation of U.S. and EU involvement abounds. The NGO network in Slovakia is well-developed and frequently draws the ire of Fico’s government. USAID, long a vehicle for color revolutions, has been among the agencies receiving scrutiny from conservatives in recent weeks. Analysis of Biden-era U.S. federal grants has already uncovered several Slovakian NGO recipients promoting ideological projects: “to help promote and protect the human rights of LGBTQI+ people in Slovakia;” “to create a supportive environment for Slovakia’s LGBTQI+ minority;” and “to support diversity, acceptance, and solidarity towards LGBTQ+ people and their families in eastern Slovakia.” Furthermore, the protests began as the Biden administration was leaving its final marks on global affairs. It would be a shocking development if this current round of demonstrations had no links to the Biden foreign-policy universe, which surely felt compelled to “midwife this thing,” in the words of the recently departed Victoria Nuland. This author recalls a conference call of journalists, economists, and policy figures before the 2023 Slovakian parliamentary elections, when it was clear voters would reject the economic privations and military adventurism of the previous governments. “It will be difficult, but [Slovakian voters] can be led there,” asserted one of the think-tank organizers. “They need to see why their views are incorrect.” It’s all so very tiresome. U.S. Involvement Going Forward Contrary to prevailing narratives, labels are difficult in Slovakia. Governments have formed and fractured often, and ruling coalitions rarely invite neat ideological descriptions. Fico himself defies easy categorization. Western media usually label him with terms like “left-wing,” “left-nationalist,” or even the ubiquitous “far-right,” but these are sloppy characterizations. Fico is a populist, and he is emblematic of the modern reality in which the left-right dichotomy has declined in importance. Instead, critical battles are waged between sovereigntists and advocates of transnational governance. Fico, like Trump, is firmly in the former camp. Back across the Atlantic, then, it is easy to imagine neoconservative Republicans taking a hard line against the Fico government. Slovakia, like its southern neighbor Hungary, has dared to object to the West’s efforts at prolonged war and state-building in neighboring Ukraine. English-language media have crafted the narrative of a kleptocratic and un-Western backwater. Hawkish Republican senators might predictably consign Slovakia to the ranks of “socialist” troublemakers, à la Venezuela. Don’t let them off easy. Slovakia is the sort of ally America should be cultivating in the second Trump administration. For one, its government is pragmatic, unblinded by ideology — in Trumpian terms, they’re people who will make a deal. Next, it is an outspoken critic of liberal European overreach, a concept that demands American military expenditure while simultaneously harassing President Trump and his local European allies. Finally, Slovakia possesses a coherent society — industrious, predominantly Catholic, proud of its hard-earned independence, and unreceptive to transnational mandates on migration or sexual politics. It is a healthy and responsive democracy, one wary of unrestrained liberalism. Figures in the Trump State Department ought not to preach these values at home while selling out an ally like the one in Bratislava. READ MORE from Michael O’Shea: Lessons for Trump from Orbán, Hungary’s ‘Comeback’ Prime Minister Gains for Irish Conservatives May Be Too Little, Too Late Germans Say They’re Fed Up, Nazi Accusations Be Damned The post Are the Protests in Slovakia Due to NGO and USAID Interference? appeared first on The American Spectator | USA News and Politics.