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How the Ukraine Minerals Deal Supports US Strategy and Ukrainian Security
China currently has a significant advantage over the United States in terms of critical minerals.
These minerals are “critical” for the production of green energy technology, the semiconductors used in consumer electronics, and military hardware—including missiles, aircraft, and ammunition.
The PRC controls over 90 percent of the world’s production of gallium, over 80 percent of the production of magnesium, tungsten, and bismuth, and over 70 percent of the production of graphite. China also controls between 40 and 50 percent of the world’s supply of refined rare earth elements. Domestic production of critical minerals is comparatively weak, and the construction of new mines was repeatedly blocked by the Department of the Interior and the Environmental Protection Agency under President Joe Biden.
If we are to successfully counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific, it is imperative that we secure new sources of critical minerals and grow our ability to refine them.
In light of these challenges, President Donald Trump has indicated his intent to promote the production of critical minerals both at home and abroad.
The Ukraine minerals deal, which will set up a “reconstruction investment fund” with the revenues from Ukrainian government-owned natural resources, is a significant step in the right direction.
The deal accomplishes several important goals.
First, it provides capital for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s devastated infrastructure and is designed to attract additional private sector investment, giving Ukraine a path toward financial recovery from the war.
Second, it compensates the U.S. for billions of dollars’ worth of military and financial assistance provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion.
Third, it will create Western buy-in for the region’s stability that could deter future Russian aggression in lieu of a formal security guarantee.
Finally, and most importantly, it will give the U.S. a new source of the critical minerals and rare earth elements needed to expand semiconductor production and rebuild and modernize the military.
Ukraine is of particular importance because it is one of the most resource-rich countries in Europe. The Ukrainian government estimates that the country contains 5% of the world’s critical minerals, with large deposits of graphite, titanium, lithium, beryllium, uranium, and rare earth elements. Moreover, because of a lack of capital and sophisticated mining technology, only 15% of deposits were being exploited when the invasion began in 2022.
According to the director of a Ukrainian graphite factory, 70% of Ukraine’s critical minerals have not been mined. Up to $350 billion worth of these minerals are found in areas under Russian occupation, but the remainder are still accessible to foreign and domestic mining interests.
The deal is good for both Ukraine and for the United States, and ought to move forward.
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