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The Blaze Media Feed
The Blaze Media Feed
2 yrs

Frenchman who saw through pollsters' failure and media's skew makes fortune betting on Trump
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Frenchman who saw through pollsters' failure and media's skew makes fortune betting on Trump

A mystery trader identifying himself only as Thèo secured an estimated $48 million in profits betting that the 45th president would be elected the 47th president. The trader, a Frenchman with a financial services background who has been dubbed the "Trump whale," reportedly used four anonymous accounts — Theo4, Fredi9999, PrincessCaro and Michieon — on the crypto-based betting site Polymarket to bet on President Donald Trump to win the popular vote as well as most battleground states. Thèo suspected that establishment pollsters and the mainstream media had overestimated support for Kamala Harris and once again underestimated Trump's support. Thèo told Visegrád 24 prior to Election Day, "The polls are really different from the predictive odds in the predictive markets. It calculates something totally different. One is calculating what are the intentions of the people to vote. The other are bets made by real people with real money about who they believe the winner will be." The Frenchman noted in August, he began to realize that "media outlets are making the same mistakes they made in 2016 and 2020 underestimating the Trump vote. Why? Because, again, it's underestimating the shy Trump vote effect." The Princeton Election Consortium indicated, for example, in November 2016 that Hillary Clinton had a 99% chance of beating Trump, projecting her to take 312 electoral votes. FiveThirtyEight, then Nate Silver's polling outfit, suggested that Clinton's had a 71.4% chance of winning. Polls conducted that year by the Washington Post, ABC News, Google Consumer Surveys, Ipsos, YouGov, Fox News, Selzer & Company, and other outfits were similarly way off the mark, all putting Clinton ahead by several points. Thèo indicated that this time around, the New York Times/Siena College polls and others were making the same mistakes, noting that in one instance, a poll showing Harris ahead by 2 percentage points in North Carolina was actually "un-representative by 9.3 percentage points." 'Don't trust the mainstream media.' Prior to Election Day, Thèo told a reporter at the Wall Street Journal who had taken an interest in the trader's enormous bets that RealClearPolitics polling averages showed Trump outdoing his swing-state polling numbers in the previous presidential election, which was particularly close. Recognizing that the races would again be close in swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and factoring in the "shy Trump voter effect" — which the mainstream polling outfits apparently neglected to account for — the trader realized the Republican had upwards of a 90% chance of winning the day and a 65% chance of winning the popular vote. The Frenchman took the addition step of commissioning a major pollster to conduct surveys to measure the "neighbor effect" stateside. Thèo noted that while the shy voter effect undermined the reliability of normal polls, neighbor polls — where respondents are asked which candidates their neighbors would likely support — would provide a better indication of voter preferences. Thèo told the Journal that the results "were mind blowing to the favor of Trump!" "Public opinion would have been better prepared if the latest polls had measured that neighbor effect," he added. Bloomberg indicated that Polymarket bets on which candidate would become the 47th president produced almost $3.7 billion in volume this cycle. Polymarket released a statement Wednesday morning, noting, "Last night, Polymarket proved the wisdom of markets over the polls, the media, and the pundits. Polymarket consistently and accurately forecasted outcomes well ahead of all three, demonstrating the power of high volume, deeply liquid prediction markets like those pioneered by Polymarket." The company later shared a screenshot of an Oct. 22 Time magazine headline that read, "Don't Trust the Political Prediction Markets," commenting, "Don't trust the mainstream media." Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!
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The Blaze Media Feed
The Blaze Media Feed
2 yrs

Bernie Sanders calls Dems' crushing defeat 'no great surprise' in scathing critique
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www.theblaze.com

Bernie Sanders calls Dems' crushing defeat 'no great surprise' in scathing critique

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) unleashed a scathing critique against the Democratic Party following its crushing defeat on Election Day.In his blistering remarks, Sanders declared it was "no great surprise" that the party lost the presidential election and suffered many other congressional defeats.Though Sanders claims he supports working-class Americans, he called President-elect Donald Trump's hopes to end the federal income tax 'insane economics.'Sanders stated, "It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them.""First, it was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well. While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they're right," he wrote."Today, while the very rich are doing phenomenally well, 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck and we have more income and wealth inequality than ever before," Sanders continued. "Unbelievably, real, inflation-accounted-for weekly wages for the average American worker are actually lower now than they were 50 years ago.""Will the big money interests and well-paid consultants who control the Democratic Party learn any real lessons from this disastrous campaign?" he questioned. "Will they understand the pain and political alienation that tens of millions of Americans are experiencing? Do they have any ideas as to how we can take on the increasingly powerful Oligarchy which has so much economic and political power?""Probably not," Sanders concluded.Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a former Democrat, responded to Sanders, writing, "Sadly late."In his critique, Sanders also slammed the Democratic Party for supporting Israel."Today, despite strong opposition from a majority of Americans, we continue to spend billions funding the extremist Netanyahu government's all out war against the Palestinian people which has led to the horrific humanitarian disaster of mass malnutrition and the starvation of thousands of children," Sanders stated.He concluded that "those of us concerned about grassroots democracy and economic justice need to have some very serious political discussions."Though Sanders claims he supports working-class Americans, he called President-elect Donald Trump's hopes to end the federal income tax "insane economics." He argued that such a plan would "hurt desperately poor people and further enrich the very wealthy."Sanders, a sitting senator earning approximately $174,000 annually, is worth roughly $3 million. He won his third re-election campaign on Tuesday, keeping him in the Senate for another six years.Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!
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Twitchy Feed
Twitchy Feed
2 yrs

HUME-ILIATED! Brit Hume NUKES Obama Lackey for Whining that Lefties Don't Have a Joe Rogan or Elon Musk
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twitchy.com

HUME-ILIATED! Brit Hume NUKES Obama Lackey for Whining that Lefties Don't Have a Joe Rogan or Elon Musk

HUME-ILIATED! Brit Hume NUKES Obama Lackey for Whining that Lefties Don't Have a Joe Rogan or Elon Musk
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Twitchy Feed
Twitchy Feed
2 yrs

The Hill Moves Onto the Bargaining Stage of Grief, Warns Voters They'll Regret Electing Trump
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twitchy.com

The Hill Moves Onto the Bargaining Stage of Grief, Warns Voters They'll Regret Electing Trump

The Hill Moves Onto the Bargaining Stage of Grief, Warns Voters They'll Regret Electing Trump
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Twitchy Feed
Twitchy Feed
2 yrs

Brain-Trust Behind EMBARRASSING Iowa Poll Tries Saving Face but Mollie Hemingway Ain't Havin'  None OF It
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twitchy.com

Brain-Trust Behind EMBARRASSING Iowa Poll Tries Saving Face but Mollie Hemingway Ain't Havin' None OF It

Brain-Trust Behind EMBARRASSING Iowa Poll Tries Saving Face but Mollie Hemingway Ain't Havin' None OF It
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Twitchy Feed
Twitchy Feed
2 yrs

'Guilty As Charged': CNN Calls Scott Presler 'Cult-Like Figure' and His Reply Is STRAIGHT FIRE
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twitchy.com

'Guilty As Charged': CNN Calls Scott Presler 'Cult-Like Figure' and His Reply Is STRAIGHT FIRE

'Guilty As Charged': CNN Calls Scott Presler 'Cult-Like Figure' and His Reply Is STRAIGHT FIRE
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RedState Feed
RedState Feed
2 yrs

Hours After Trump Won Election, Biden Made Another Radical Move on the Environment
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redstate.com

Hours After Trump Won Election, Biden Made Another Radical Move on the Environment

Hours After Trump Won Election, Biden Made Another Radical Move on the Environment
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RedState Feed
RedState Feed
2 yrs

Trump Won - but Is the Nation Moving Right for Keeps?
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Trump Won - but Is the Nation Moving Right for Keeps?

Trump Won - but Is the Nation Moving Right for Keeps?
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RedState Feed
RedState Feed
2 yrs

Gavin Newsom Doubles Down on Stupid in Response to Trump Victory
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redstate.com

Gavin Newsom Doubles Down on Stupid in Response to Trump Victory

Gavin Newsom Doubles Down on Stupid in Response to Trump Victory
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RedState Feed
RedState Feed
2 yrs

Joe Scarborough's Shock at Insane Cost of Butter Explains Exactly Why Media Elites Never Saw Trump Coming
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redstate.com

Joe Scarborough's Shock at Insane Cost of Butter Explains Exactly Why Media Elites Never Saw Trump Coming

Joe Scarborough's Shock at Insane Cost of Butter Explains Exactly Why Media Elites Never Saw Trump Coming
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