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Pale Horses, Prophetic Dreams, and Bad Omens: House of the Dragon, Season 3 Episode 7
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House of the Dragon
Pale Horses, Prophetic Dreams, and Bad Omens: House of the Dragon, Season 3 Episode 7
A betrayal is revealed, a future is glimpsed, and a character we thought dead returns… also: DRAGONFIGHT!
By Tyler Dean
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Published on August 3, 2026
Credit: Theo Whiteman/HBO
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Credit: Theo Whiteman/HBO
The penultimate episode of season three is, in some ways, quieter and features more table-setting than some others this season, and it defies the Game of Thrones tradition of having the most spectacular episode come second to last. At the same time, it features the longest and most visceral scene of dragon-on-dragon combat in the entire series and gives us the return of at least one character that most of the audience assumed was dead. Let’s dive in to discuss all its finger-removing, neck-biting, chin-stabbing glory…
The Title
The episode is entitled “The Dragon in Winter.” Obviously, it’s playing on The Lion in Winter, James Goldman’s 1966 play which was adapted into the much lauded, Oscar-winning film of the same name in 1968. The play is about King Henry II and his estranged wife, Eleanor of Aquitaine, spending the holidays plotting political coups, backstabbing family members, and squabbling over which of their disappointing children should inherit the throne during a memorable Christmas in the 12th century. While, to my knowledge, Martin has never cited the play as a direct inspiration for any of his Song of Ice and Fire works, he is both a Medieval history buff and a classic Hollywood/movie buff (he famously owns a theater in Santa Fe called the Jean Cocteau Cinema), and he has cited Eleanor of Aquitaine as an inspiration for Good Queen Alysanne Targaryen (Silverwing’s original rider and Viserys and Daemon’s grandmother)—so this is very much in the series’ overall wheelhouse. In some ways, “The Dragon in Winter” recapitulates the play’s central themes and actions: It puts the rift between Daemon and Rhaenyra front and center and sees Alicent dealing with the ways in which none of her four children are truly fit to rule the Seven Kingdoms.
Of course, “winter” is always a charged and meaningful term in any ASoIaF tale. “Winter is Coming” are the words of House Stark and a warning about the privations of Westeros’ supernaturally long seasons as well as the oft-forgotten threat of the Others (called White Walkers in Game of Thrones) and the endless winter they bring with them. In an episode that revives Rhaenyra’s obsession with prophecy and shows Helaena dreaming of falling snow, signs of an impending winter are all around. Winter is also metaphorically coming in the form of Roderick Dustin and his Winter Wolves, who march in the vanguard of Oscar Tully’s host, threatening to end the Hightower threat.
And, insofar as the title of The Lion in Winter refers to the decline and dotage of a once-mighty monarch, so too does this title reference the aging or perhaps curdling of Rhaenyra’s reign as she descends further into tyranny, as well as the fracturing of her court as she finally consummates her relationship with Mysaria (The Lion in Winter also hinges on a secret queer relationship undermining a political stratagem).
Unraveling the Opening Credits
There are two new panels in the tapestry this episode. The first shows a pair of soldiers dressed in the Blacks’ colors, dead and bleeding out. The camera then moves through the cloth to show the obverse side where the same soldiers now bear the Greens’ colors. It’s a nice little bit of visual storytelling and slightly more surreal than the opening titles have previously been.
The last panel shows the Butcher’s Ball, with Criston Cole dead on his knees with the tines of the Seven-Pointed Star of Faith spreading out around him. Of course, here the star is mostly a stand-in for his actual guiding light, Alicent, reduced here to her faith—somewhat ironically since her affair with Ser Criston is one of the moments in which she broke with the precepts of her religion. Green threads move out from his panel and cross the border in which he is encased, moving through a field of what look to be blood-soaked branches towards the Targaryen sigil. Whether that’s meant to be new growth amidst all the blood or something more metaphorical remains to be seen.
Helaena the Dreamer
Credit: Ollie Upton/HBO
The Helaena of the novel loves her dragon, Dreamfyre and flies with her often—only refusing after she is consumed by grief over the murder of her son Jaehaerys. Here in the show, Helaena says that it is “too much” when she is with Dreamfyre despite her desire to fly. That might be part of her autism-coding and overstimulation but Rhaenyra likens it to her father Viserys (the last rider of Balerion the Black Dread before his death)—they are the ones who believe that faith in dragons is a kind of hubris.
Intriguingly, Helaena’s desire to fly without a dragon feels like it’s a reference to Bran Stark, who also wishes to fly and is told by the Three-Eyed Raven (Helaena’s great grandnephew, Brynden Rivers) that Bran’s warg abilities will allow him to fly. Much like her brother Aemond—whom she says “burns without fire”—she flies without a dragon. Throughout Game of Thrones, it was implied that Danaerys is supernaturally special by virtue of her immunity to fire and having three dragons hatch on her husband’s funeral pyre. But here we see a more complex notion that what makes the Targaryens truly exceptional is not their connection to dragons but their prophetic dreams. After all, there were roughly forty families in Old Valyria who controlled and rode dragons. And if we believe the rumors of the creation of dragons, those ties through blood were forged by dark magic and human sacrifice. What Daenys the Dreamer, and Aegon the Conqueror, and Helaena, and Dany’s elder brother Rhaegar all had in common was a prophetic power that appeared, so far as we know, only in the Targaryen line.
So what does Helaena’s vision—the first one we’ve actually seen on the show (if one doesn’t count the shared vision that she and Daemon had at the end of last season)—portend? Let’s break it down:
At the beginning of the episode she stands next to a gray mare in the courtyard of the Red Keep. There is a bright yellow light illuminating her from beyond the gates. We do not see the source of the light, but it looks an awful lot like dragonfire to me.
Later, during the longer version of her dream, she is first in the birthing bed, presumably giving birth to her current child (who I will refer to as Maelor even though the show has not confirmed a gender or a name).
Next, she is in her riding leathers atop Dreamfyre in an empty Dragonpit while a horde or armed man rush at her. She bellows “dracarys” and burns them. Oddly, it looks like an inverted shot of Rhaenys atop Maelys at Aegon’s coronation.
Finally, she and the gray mare sit in a field near a farmstead, feeding the chickens she said she might like to keep back in the second episode of the season. With her are older versions of Maelor and Jaehaera (this finally answers our questions about the puzzling casting call looking for a teenaged Jaehaera, which fans couldn’t quite figure out). The sun behind them is hidden by an eclipse and snow begins to fall. We see the winds of winter blowing towards Helaena and there is a sound of screeching that is reminiscent of the noises the White Walkers made in the original Game of Thrones series
What looks to be Helaena for a second awakes from sleep, but it is actually Rhaenyra. This might be clever cross-cutting or it might be the half-sisters sharing the same dream, just as Helaena did with Daemon last season.
As to what the dream means, it’s clearly some kind of vision of what Helaena’s future might look like. I think it might be implying that, in order to secure that future, there will be a terrible cost (represented literally here by her having to burn hundreds of people in order to escape King’s Landing). Additionally, I think the invocation of the White Walkers and winter at the end of the vision might serve as a sort of warning that if Helaena’s own ideal future comes to pass, it will somehow destroy the timeline that lets the people of Westeros triumph against the second Long Night (which we saw play out in episode 3 of Game of Thrones’ final season). Needless to say, I don’t love Helaena’s chances of making it out of this season alive, and I think they are trying to reframe her tragic death as a noble sacrifice for the future of her own children. That said, we are far enough off-book with her storyline that I genuinely have no idea what the writers have in store for her.
Common Mistakes
Credit: Ollie Upton/HBO
After the death of Criston Cole last week, following his final doomed crusade to face his death on his own terms, outside of anyone’s service, this episode shows us numerous other consequences of both failing to heed the common folk and the perils of trusting in noble patronage.
Sylvie tells Mysaria that her time as Rhaenyra’s Mistress of Whispers has made her unable to truly help the smallfolk of Westeros. She reminds her that “within the walls of the highborn, a whore will always and ever remain a whore.” While Lady Misery seems to be entangling herself ever deeper with Rhaenyra (now supplanting Daemon as her lover), we are reminded that Ser Criston learned only at very end that the lowborn will never be thought of as an equal by their noble compatriots. Even Gwayne, who seems to have truly considered him a friend, could only offer him more servitude in Oldtown. I won’t spoil things here, but I am almost positive that Sylvie is going to be used as a stand-in for another sex worker that will feature heavily in season four. If I’m right, it’ll be fascinating to see how her former association with Mysaria factors into that plot.
This theme also comes up in the final reveal of Ulf having already betrayed Rhaenyra. As we have discussed in previous articles, Archmaester Gyldayn (the in-fiction author of Fire & Blood) doesn’t particularly care about the poor and also believes Rhaenyra to be completely unfit to rule. Thus, Ulf betraying her is seen as both a matter of his common breeding and her own poor judgement. Gyldayn suggests that Ulf was always a craven and turned his coat because he was afraid of the power of the Hightower host and did not want to die. This feels much closer to a psychologically consistent truth. Ulf is, indeed, being kept in a weird twilight where his old freedoms have been taken away but he has not been rewarded in any meaningful way that he can see. Like Ser Criston and Mysaria, he is falling into the same old trap of believing that he will be respected once he has been granted the trappings of nobility. Ormund may be the least trustworthy mouthpiece for the virtues of the smallfolk of all time, but Ulf is also the most credulous of social climbers with burgeoning class consciousness.
DragonWatch: Battle Edition
Credit: Theo Whiteman/HBO
The centerpiece of tonight’s episode is clearly the four-dragon battle between Caraxes, Syrax, Seasmoke, and Sheepstealer. It’s one of the best dragon fights we’ve had in the entire series, which should help address complaints about House of the Dragon being “slow-paced” from the series’ detractors. Among the best details of the fight is a reminder that dragon blood smokes when exposed to open air. It’s an easily overlooked detail from Martin’s books (alongside their black, iron-rich bones) but one that reminds us that dragons are not natural creatures in Westeros—they are things made of fire and free from natural law (even fantastic natural law).
Obviously there’s no scene like this in the original book. Sheepstealer, as Nettles’ mount, though a wild dragon, is always loyal to Rhaenyra and it is only when Rhaenyra suspects Nettles of betraying her (both as her husband’s supposed mistress and in the wake of Ulf’s betrayal) that she and Sheepstealer are driven off. I’m surprised that the show had Sheepstealer live at the end of it—given that they are now returning Rhaena to some version of her arc in the novel, Sheepstealer doesn’t really have a place in the narrative. It remains to be seen if he will return or if this was just a kinder end to the arc than having him killed by three trained dragons.
Interestingly, Sheepstealer’s arc on the show is being used as an inversion of his arc in the novel, albeit one that proves the same point. As a wild dragon, the Targaryens believe that Sheepstealer is impossible to ride, but Nettles takes control of him despite having a dubious at best claim to any Targaryen lineage (she is a resident of Dragonstone, like the book versions of Ulf and Hugh but, unlike them, doesn’t look particularly Targaryen and has a less traceable pedigree). Nettles’ ability to tame and ride Sheepstealer is a point of evidence in favor of the idea that one does not need Targaryen blood to ride a dragon—that maybe anyone can do it. The show, in showing that Rhaena never truly tamed Sheepstealer—being unable to stop him from attacking her family and their dragons—creates a similar doubt: the Targaryens can only ride the dragons they have specifically domesticated, and aren’t truly masters of dragonkind in general.
Poor underbite-y, ungroomed, very angry guy.
We also get our first detailed look at Dreamfyre, who we only saw briefly in season 1, shrouded in darkness. She is the second-oldest living dragon after Vhagar (though Vhagar is one hundred and eighty-two years old and Dreamfyre is only ninety-eight and, at least in the novel, Sheepstealer is rumored to be at least the same age as Dreamfyre, and possibly much older). First ridden by the tragic Queen in the West, Princess Rhaena Targaryen, she is described in Fire & Blood as being slender with blue scales and a silvery crest. The show has given her a series of upturned horns along the back of her skull and down her neck, making her look like some sort of nightmare elk. Additionally, she has a hooded crest around the eyes that make her look a bit like a cobra from certain angles. It’s one of the bolder and weirder designs on the show and I’m glad we’re getting to see it in full. The show never disappoints with its dragon physiology.
Slightly less novel, but equally stunning in this episode is Sunfyre’s resurrection and his destruction of Lord Mooton’s army. Sunfyre resurrected is described by Gyldayn as the “a broken thing, he who had been the most magnificent dragon ever to fly the skies of Westeros […] huge wounds were visible along his neck, where another dragon had torn chunks from his flesh […] and where his right eye should have been was only an empty hole, crusted with black blood.” The resuscitated Sunfyre is a nightmare thing, as broken and scarred as his rider and the show captures that monstrosity, shooting his return with low lighting worthy of a horror movie as he looms out of the shadows. It’s a perfect reveal after two and half years of having to keep his survival a secret from my friends who haven’t read Fire & Blood.
Odds & Ends
Credit: Theo Whiteman/HBO
Given her obsession with prophecy, of course Rhaenyra would seek to use Helaena to win the war. The only thing worse than being a disbelieved Cassandra is being a prophet on whom the attentions of the powerful are focused.
Helaena says that the thing she last dreamed of was a “gray mare.” In A Dance with Dragons, Danaerys dreams that the Asshai’i shadowbinder, Quaithe, warns her of a pale mare coming to the city of Mereen. This turns out to be a warning about a dying Astapori refugee (who rides a pale mare) coming to the city and unwittingly spreading an epidemic of dysentery. Just a fun and not at all portentous fact…
Aemond’s incestuous desires continue in his dreams. Last season, Alys’ influence led Daemon to have similar sex dreams about his mother, Alyssa Targaryen. We know that Aemond harbors either unnatural or perfectly-normal-by-Targaryen-standards desires for Alicent, but it seems that Alys is particularly interested in stirring up mother-son incest fantasies in the men she attempts to seduce. Wild stuff.
As a side note, it is kind of fascinating how much the show successfully plays the Aemond-Alicent stuff for horror and disgust while having Alyn-and-Baela and Daemon-and-Rhaenyra (both uncles paired with their nieces) played as sexy and romantic. It’s fascinating that the show has managed to make us accept the Targaryens’ incestuous relationships as somehow acceptable while at the same time reminding us that our incest taboos are pretty darn universal—Targaryen propaganda at its best.
As Oscar Tully’s army and the Winter Wolves march South, we see the army has banners for Houses Tully and Stark but also for House Blackwood (a white weirwood tree and black ravens on a red field) and their rivals, House Bracken (a red horse on a yellow field). Alysanne Blackwood, who killed Ser Criston last episode, is a member of the House, which is one of the few that still worships the Old Gods south of the Neck. The Brackens showed up last season as well, being burned by Caraxes after Willem Blackwood used Daemon’s presence as an excuse to carry out old house rivalries.
There are also banners for House Mallister and House Vance. The Mallisters have a white eagle on purple and are located in Seagard, Defending against the Greyjoys. House Vance of Wayfarer’s Rest sports a banner displaying a black and white, checkered field with alternating black dragons and golden eyes in a gold ring. Those are men serving lord Tristan Vance (unseen on the show) who march against their brother house: Vance of Atranta. Both houses and their sigils are references to fantasy author Jack Vance. This sigil, in particular, alludes to Vance’s novella The Dragon Masters and his short story “Liane the Wayfarer.”
Jeyne Arryn is one of the many queer women in this era of Westerosi history and I’m glad the show has finally confirmed it by showing us her longtime lover, Lady Jessamyn Redfort. Fun fact: Jessamyn is a relative (likely a cousin) of Adrian Redfort, the up-until-this-episode commander of Rhaenyra’s Queensguard whom Aemond kills at Harrenhal.
Lady Jeyne says “living amongst nettles and sheep” as a nod to the fact that Rhaena’s plot has partially taken the place of the character Nettles, who was cut from the show.
Lady Jeyne tells Daemon that Vhagar was sighted near Fairmarket and suggests Rhaena may be there. Fairmarket is a decently sized market town located on the Blue Fork of the Trident in the Riverlands, halfway between Oldstones and where the river joins with the Green Fork. Jeyne is pretty up to date on her dragon-sighting rumors.
There’s a gigantic pile of dragon droppings (presumably Vhagar’s) in the abandoned farmstead that Baela and Addam investigate. Not since the late Sam Neill and company investigated that sick Triceratops have we seen such a detailed, ignominious prop.
The Addam-Alyn-Baela love triangle is an invention of the show but a welcome one, as it gives Addam another point of contention with his brother now that both of them have accepted their Velaryon heritage, and the book version of Addam is fairly absent from major events during this portion of the Dance.
In the novel, Adrian Redfort dies significantly later in the story during events I won’t spoil here. That said, the show has played pretty fast and loose with members of the Kingsguard and Queensguard. And both Ser Lorent Marbrand and Ser Adrian Redfort have been given far more to do this season than they ever had in Fire & Blood, even if neither survived as long as their book counterparts.
Of course Ormund Hightower is a keto/paleo bro with his disgust for fat and his wildly undercooked goose. Just embrace veganism already.
Maidenpool, the town where Larys, Aegon, and Tyland are headed, is the seat of House Mooton, located on the southern shore of the Bay of Crabs which separates the Crownlands from the Vale of Arryn. It is named for a pond in which the legendary maiden, Jonquil, is spied while bathing by her future lover, Florian—a fool who proves as brave as any knight. In the original Game of Thrones, Sansa Stark likens her alliance with disgraced knight-turned-fool, Dontos Hollard, to the story of Florian and Jonquil. In A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, Tanselle Too-Tall recounts the tale of Florian and Jonquil in the first puppet show Dunk and Egg see her perform.
The entirety of Alicent’s plot at Harrenhal is invented for the show. As is most of Alicent’s plot this season. In the novel, she spends most of what comprises season three imprisoned in the Red Keep without so much as a word. Still, much as with her secret meetings with Rhaenyra last season, this gives her more time with the people she’s closest to—a chance to deepen her character. Still, every shot of her in this episode is the absolute least comfortable we’ve ever seen her.
Daemon offering to hunt down Vhagar alongside Rhaena is one final nod to giving her Nettles’ arc. Daemon and Nettles do, indeed, scour the countryside looking for Vhagar around this time and, if one believes the story told by the court fool, Mushroom, have their affair.
Daemon did not, indeed, have a dragon for at least the first eleven years of his life. During that time, Caraxes was ridden by Aemon Targaryen, Rhaenys’ father and Daemon and Viserys’ uncle.
One minor quibble with Rhaenyra flying to the confrontation with Sheepstealer is that it slightly bursts the claustrophobic bubble of her being totally confined to the Red Keep this season. It doesn’t matter immensely, but the series is beginning to betray a little bit of the teleporting Littlefinger impulse where dragonriders can cross hundreds of miles in a day.
Excellent to see that Baela and Rhaena are okay with one another at the end of the day. Their relationship as loving sisters was one of the biggest sacrifices of Rhaena’s plot arc this season and I’m glad they found a way to repair it.
Alys’ new sultry corset is great but it can’t compare to Gayle Rankin’s press junket outfits, including one that might be inspired by Catherine O’Hara’s The Crows Have Eyes ensemble for Schitt’s Creek.
Lord Walys Mooton and his army, who meet their death by Sunfyre at the end of the episode, do indeed die in that manner in the book. Though in Fire & Blood, no one ever believes that Sunfyre is dead and the Mootons die trying to put the severely injured dragon down.
I love that Ormund sets up incense burners around his fireside encampment to ward off the smell of Ulf.
Honeyholt is the seat of House Beesbury. Ormund and his army put down their rebellion sometime last season and while it will return to future generations of Beesburys, it is currently without a lord.
I feel like the show has done a great job of giving us every step of Ulf’s journey, eliding only the exact moment he betrayed Rhaenyra. His betrayal probably felt inevitable to non-book readers but, in making that betrayal a thing that already happened while continuing to show him bumbling his way through service to Rhaenyra, they land the surprise that otherwise might have whiffed.
In Conclusion…
Credit: Ollie Upton/HBO
Another great episode of simmering tension before the storm inevitably breaks. The show has done an excellent job of turning Rhaenyra into a crueler, less likable version of herself without ever betraying her core character. And this episode shows all the chickens of her increasingly desperate decision-making coming home to roost: Daemon’s betrayal revealed, Ulf’s turncloak moment, Corlys captured, another Queensguard knight sacrificed, and a potential dragonrider ally made dragon-less. But what do you think? Are you excited for the finale next week? Are you as worried about Helaena as I am? Was seeing Criston Cole’s head on a pike enough for you jackals?! Let me know in the comments, and join me for the season finale next week![end-mark]
The post Pale Horses, Prophetic Dreams, and Bad Omens: <i>House of the Dragon</i>, Season 3 Episode 7 appeared first on Reactor.