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3 w

Trump Must Say No to Tomahawks for Ukraine
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Trump Must Say No to Tomahawks for Ukraine

[View Article at Source]As Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky heads to the White House this Friday, the debate over long-range missiles has become less about battlefield calculus and more about…
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Unpatriotic Realists
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Unpatriotic Realists

[View Article at Source]Is gaining some oil worth losing your country? The post Unpatriotic Realists appeared first on The American Conservative.
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3 w

Could Only Trump Go to Gaza?
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Could Only Trump Go to Gaza?

[View Article at Source]The president’s unique bona fides enabled him to execute the deal. The post Could Only Trump Go to Gaza? appeared first on The American Conservative.
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BREAKING: Feds charge Smartmatic with BRIBERY of election officials in Philippines
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BREAKING: Feds charge Smartmatic with BRIBERY of election officials in Philippines

Smartmatic, the voting tech firm that you all probably remember from the 2020 election, has just been charged with both money laundering and the bribing of election officials in the Philippines. Here’s . . .
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BREAKING: US military fires against a ‘submersible’ drug vessel, leaves survivors…
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BREAKING: US military fires against a ‘submersible’ drug vessel, leaves survivors…

The US military fired a drone against a ‘submersible’ drug smuggling vessel and apparently left two or three survivors. Here’s the news: BREAKING: A U.S. military drone strike in the Caribbean against . . .
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Trending Tech
Trending Tech
3 w

OpenAI pauses Sora video generations of Martin Luther King Jr.
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OpenAI pauses Sora video generations of Martin Luther King Jr.

OpenAI is pausing AI video generations of Martin Luther King at the request of the late civil rights activists' estate.
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3 w

Reddit expands its AI-powered search to five new languages
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Reddit expands its AI-powered search to five new languages

Reddit announced Thursday that it is expanding its AI-powered search experience to five new languages: French, German, Spanish, Italian, and Portuguese. With this expansion, the feature is now available in countries like Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, Mexico, and Italy. Users who have set one of these languages as their default, instead of English, can now […]
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Conservative Voices
Conservative Voices
3 w

Trump Must Say No to Tomahawks for Ukraine
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Trump Must Say No to Tomahawks for Ukraine

Foreign policy As Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky heads to the White House this Friday, the debate over long-range missiles has become less about battlefield calculus and more about a high-stakes game of nuclear poker that risks core American security interests for a non-ally. Zelensky aims for President Donald Trump’s agreement to deliver the long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. The topic dominated two consecutive phone calls between Zelensky and Trump over the weekend—an unprecedented frequency that signals the issue’s urgency.Publicly, Zelensky confirmed that Trump has not taken the decision yet. Seeking to assuage concerns over escalation of the war with Russia, Zelensky sought to assure Trump that any provided Tomahawk missiles would strike “only military targets.” Zelensky, however, could well designate objects of energy infrastructure and even the Kremlin itself legitimate “military objects,” as he himself has warned recently. Seemingly aware of the risks, Trump has framed the decision on Tomahawks as a point of leverage. He stated he will first speak with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, demanding an end to the war and implying that a Russian refusal could trigger the missiles’ transfer. He also candidly acknowledged that such a move would be a “new step of aggression” that Russia “does not need,” citing both the risks and limited U.S. weapons stocks. Trump’s approach reveals a transactional logic. The threat of Tomahawks is not primarily a military calculation but a diplomatic cudgel intended to “get a deal.” The back-to-back calls with Zelensky serve as a performance of resolve, a signal to the Kremlin that the administration is serious about altering the conflict’s dynamics. But beneath this surface lies a far more dangerous strategic gambit. The Tomahawk debate is no longer merely about enhancing Ukraine’s strike capability; it has become the central chip in a high-stakes game of coercion between Washington and Moscow, one where the specter of nuclear escalation is being deliberately invoked. On the one hand, Moscow officially “welcomes” Trump’s stated intention to focus on the war in Ukraine following a settlement in Gaza. The Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov praised Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff for his “effectiveness” and expressed hope that “his talents will further contribute to the Ukrainian direction. The Russian side maintains its openness and readiness for a peaceful dialogue”.  On the other, the Russian position contains a stark warning. While officials publicly dismiss the Tomahawks’ ability to change the battlefield, they have consistently framed their potential delivery as a major escalation. The rhetoric from Moscow is deliberately grave: Peskov and Dmitry Medvedev,  the deputy chair of the security council, both indicated that Russia could interpret the launch of Tomahawks against its territory as an attempt to deliver a nuclear strike.  “The issue of Tomahawks is a source of extreme concern for us. President Putin has already spoken about this. This is a special weapon; it can be configured for conventional or nuclear warheads. It has a long range and is a serious weapon…. Now we are at a very dramatic moment, with tensions being escalated from all sides…. Military experts overseas must understand this,” Peskov said. If Moscow does interpret a Tomahawk launch against Russian territory as an attempt of a nuclear strike, this could, theoretically, be framed as a justification for Russia to use nuclear weapons—either against Ukraine, or against Ukraine and the U.S. or other NATO countries.  This logic rests on Moscow’s assertion that the use of Tomahawks would be impossible without the direct involvement and guidance of US military personnel. The Kremlin’s longstanding suspicions now have tangible evidence, with revelations in the Financial Times confirming that American intelligence has been guiding Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Moscow’s message is not subtle. It is a calculated attempt to raise the stakes to a level that would give any U.S. president pause.  In Kiev, a prevailing belief holds that Moscow’s nuclear threats are a bluff, akin to the pre-invasion warnings that were tragically underestimated in 2022. The logic is that the mere threat of Tomahawks is already working, with Zelensky asserting that “we see and hear that Russia is afraid,” and that this pressure can be leveraged for peace talks.But this optimism may be dangerously misplaced. Tomahawks may not necessarily alter the dynamics on the battlefield, where Russia is slowly but steadily advancing. In this context, the deliveries of the Tomahawks may not in itself change Putin’s calculus.  But if Putin in his anticipated call with Trump reiterates—even implicitly—the nuclear warning he has telegraphed through Peskov and Medvedev, the U.S. president will face a historic choice: either to proceed with deliveries or back down. A significant danger is that Trump, buoyed by his success in Gaza, may be encouraged by establishment hawks to view Putin’s obstinacy not merely as a geopolitical problem, but as a personal challenge to his deal-making prowess. This perception—fueled by Putin’s own stubborn refusal to halt strikes on Ukraine—could push him toward a harder line.  That could lead him to call Moscow’s bluff and give Tomahawks to Ukraine—crossing a redline the Biden administration carefully avoided and fully embracing the interventionist logic of the foreign policy blob that has long sought a direct confrontation with Russia. The alternative—folding—would, in this scenario, be framed not just as revealing the limits of American coercion, but as a personal defeat, conceding a failure of his own unique brand of pressure politics. Further complicating the decision is the practical reality. As Trump himself admitted, the U.S. stockpile of Tomahawks is not infinite—Defense Priorities’ Jennifer Kavanagh estimates there are fewer than 4,000 missiles. She doubts the U.S. “would be willing to share the weapon and its sensitive technology with the Ukrainians, especially with the risk that the missile or its remnants might fall into Russian hands”. Furthermore, the proposal is fraught with significant logistical hurdles. Ukraine lacks the naval or ground-based platforms required to launch Tomahawk missiles. Deploying them would necessitate the use of the U.S. Army’s “Typhon” system—a complex platform that may be ill-suited to the demands of the Ukrainian front. While Ukrainian sources speak of a new launcher from a U.S. defense company, its operational readiness and effectiveness remain unproven. Crucially, any Tomahawk system would be wholly dependent on U.S. intelligence, targeting, and technical support. This deep integration would mark a definitive step toward direct U.S.–Russian confrontation, moving beyond the provision of intelligence to the active enablement of deep-strike operations. As Zelensky arrives in Washington, the push for Tomahawks represents the culmination of a failed policy. It is not a path to peace, but the next logical step toward the U.S.–Russia conflict long desired by the hawks. For American interests, the question is not whether Ukraine can hit Moscow, but why the United States should edge toward nuclear war in a conflict that does not threaten its sovereignty. A true America First policy would reject this escalation, prioritize diplomacy, and end the dangerous fantasy that U.S. security is advanced by becoming a direct participant in a devastating European war. The post Trump Must Say No to Tomahawks for Ukraine appeared first on The American Conservative.
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3 w

Unpatriotic Realists
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Unpatriotic Realists

Foreign Affairs Unpatriotic Realists Is gaining some oil worth losing your country? Juan Pablo Villasmil argued here yesterday that there is much expedient in the administration’s bellicose approach to Venezuela. The U.S. has a strong interest in Venezuela—in terms of geography, in terms of natural resources, in terms of denying America’s adversaries a toehold in this hemisphere. So far, so good. He makes the case that the administration’s Venezuela policy, rather than being a mess improvised amid palace factionalism, is actually coherent and may prove effective at securing a better American position in the Bolivarian Republic—specifically that the use of force could well nudge Venezuela towards an agreeable change of management, although just getting some deals would be an acceptable outcome, too. I will give him a point for introducing me to a new euphemism for regime change. “A deal is better than paralysis, and a power transition is better than a deal. The two approaches are, at least practically, not contradictory but complementary… A managed transition, however difficult, is still preferable to the stagnation of indefinite, adversarial autocracy… If and only if a transition proves unattainable or needlessly dangerous, which it may, a transactional détente that expands American access remains a worthy fallback.” Villasmil supports regime change, that is to say, “transition,” so long as it remains expedient—so long as we get the goodies we want at an acceptable material cost: “A limited, calibrated form of pressure can continue to catalyze internal fracture without putting Americans in harm’s way.” How far out the line for “acceptable material cost” is drawn is not entirely clear, but “coercion” and “force projection” are explicitly within it.  In the usual reasonable tone self-christened “realists” use when they’re about to carve up your brain to eat it, Villasmil sniffs at opposition to the administration’s course: “What makes this realist framework distinctive is that it neither romanticizes democracy promotion nor demonizes coercion. It sees both as tools in a hierarchy of needs. In this hierarchy, U.S. national interests—migration control, resource security, regional stability—take precedence over moral theatrics.” Well, all right. Lay aside whether “regional stability” is really fostered by regime change, or “resource security” is a particularly good reason to let slip the dogs of war. (“Blood for oil” wasn’t a prescriptive slogan when I was growing up.) How about the fact that the administration is lying all the time about what we’re doing here? The White House has gone to extravagant lengths to avoid making its case to the public or even to Congress, or even just describing what it’s actually up to; it has put out patent nonsense about drug control and “determining” that we are at war while it ratchets up force posture in the Caribbean. For Villasmil, the only concern here is that the administration might get high on its own propaganda supply: “Yet, as one source familiar with these matters in the State Department privately disclosed, they know the numbers well. Drug talk is a vehicle, not the sole foundation. One must hope that this view is widely shared throughout the administration.” Oh. OK.  One might be forgiven for thinking that this seems a little beside the point. Under what legal authority is the president doing any of this? What even does the president think he’s doing? (We touch lightly on the fact that Villasmil’s piece is in fact analysis, that is, speculation, and not reporting, that is, fact. To Villasmil’s credit, his own case for the Venezuela policy is far more explicit and cogent than anything emanating from Washington.) Why are the president’s men lying to us about it, and is that actually all right? Reasonable people of goodwill might set aside such niceties during a true national crisis, but in fact Venezuela is a nuisance rather than a threat; even the dubious Wilson-era adventurism in the Western Hemisphere rose to a more serious standard for action. It’s not histrionic to think this all seems somewhat irregular, and “irregular” in a constitutional system is another word for “bad.”  These practical matters inevitably lead to questions about what is the distinct goodness—one might almost say greatness—of America. Perhaps naively, I had thought it had something to do with self-government and freedom, and the concomitant responsibilities. My contention is not just that the administration’s policy is stupid, although it may well be, but that the way it’s going about it compromises what is actually good and distinctive about America. Do you want to live in a country where the government lies to you—deliberately and flagrantly—in order to justify using your tax dollars to pursue its own private ideas of how best to use American power? Does it make you feel better if they know they’re lying? Do you like that the powermen are improvising novel theories of international conflict on the fly so they do not have to come to you to make the case for whatever it is they’re doing down there?  I am not an anti-imperialist as such; I merely have noticed that the special qualities of America, which are intimately bound up in its political traditions and structures, sit ill with imperialism. There are countries without our political traditions where imperial foreign policies have been successfully pursued without internal political contradiction—Russia, the United Kingdom (up to a point, and with some fancy legal footwork), Belgium. But, in America, imperial adventurism has always resulted in the distortions and degradations of the body politic. The problem with the War on Terror wasn’t just that we did it poorly, although that is true; the problem was that it vitiated the American legal system and introduced sweeping, unchecked powers to the executive. Whatever is going on with Venezuela is kicking up the same clouds of political dysfunction that have attended every such adventure since the Spanish–American War: public lies, legal improvisation, camarilla politics. The fear is less about what a quasi-war would do to Venezuela and its neighborhood, and more about what it will do to us. Realism is a fine interpretive framework for international relations so far as it goes. But, by assuming the shared subjectivity of the nation as its basic unit, realism concedes that there are in fact distinctions among nations that are not rooted in the mere quanta of power. Those differences condition particular national interests, and those particular national interests in fact constrain and differentiate how power is pursued and used. An American national interest is, I think, the preservation of our political and legal traditions; otherwise, what’s the point of this country? If we conduct a “successful” war on the basis of unlimited executive war powers and a total disregard for what the American people actually want, well, haven’t we lost something more fundamental and important? These are not “moral theatrics.” These are questions about what America is, and what its core interests are. Are a few puddles of oil or a gravel patch with some nickel worth selling off the remaining tatters of constitutional government? Isn’t this way of doing business a little, well, un-American? If Villasmil wants unaccountable politicians with unlimited powers for doing violence, policy and law made by decree and padded by propaganda, and a fundamentally passive, subject population, he might be better off taking a flight to China—or Venezuela. The post Unpatriotic Realists appeared first on The American Conservative.
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3 w

Could Only Trump Go to Gaza?
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Could Only Trump Go to Gaza?

Foreign Affairs Could Only Trump Go to Gaza? The president’s unique bona fides enabled him to execute the deal. President Donald Trump may have had his “only Nixon could go to China” moment. There is no telling how long Trump’s diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza will last or whether it will truly inaugurate an era of peace in the Middle East.  Nor is it a foregone conclusion that Trump can continue to soar above the clouds as a unique hawk-dove hybrid before the risks of Middle Eastern quagmires send his aspirations crashing down to earth.  But at least some of the reasons Trump has so far succeeded where the former President Joe Biden failed—and make no mistake, the release of the still-living Israeli hostages held in captivity by Hamas for over two years and a ceasefire in Gaza are successes—are reminiscent of Richard Nixon’s opening to China. Nixon’s anticommunist credentials were unassailable. Even a considerable part of his outreach to Communist China was a product of his desire to gain an upper hand in the Cold War. Nixon wanted to drive a wedge between Beijing and the Soviet Union, exacerbating a growing split within international communism.  Similarly, Trump’s sympathy for Israel’s plight—and antipathy toward the Jewish state’s enemies—is well documented. He moved the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in his first term. That was also when his team negotiated the Abraham Accords, seeking peaceful relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors. He gave Israel what it wanted in terms of fighting Hamas and the space to challenge Iranian proxies on other fronts. He did not join the rush of other Western leaders to embrace a Palestinian state during the depths of the Gaza war. Trump even directly intervened, however briefly, directly with strikes against the Iranian nuclear sites.  Like the current burst of Gaza diplomacy, the true success of that last operation cannot really be measured in the space of a few cable news cycles, however much the punditocracy wishes it were so. But all of the above combined to give Trump credibility with most Israelis and a majority of Israel’s strongest supporters in the United States. At the same time, Trump acknowledges more daylight between U.S. and Israeli interests than other pro-Israel voices. He has applied more pressure on, and expressed more public criticism of, the Israeli government than any Republican president since George H.W. Bush. He has simultaneously tried to help Israel win wars while nudging the Israelis to quit while they are ahead.  In some ways, the two are connected. Former Biden aides and allies grouse that his administration pursued deals with similar terms, occasionally implying some kind of corrupt bargain between Trump and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was the only impediment to peace.  But the fact was that Biden needed blunter instruments, like the cessation of arms shipments to Israel, to try to influence Netanyahu’s behavior. Trump’s source of leverage came from his leadership of the more pro-Israel political party in the United States and the fact that his continued support was indispensable to Netanyahu. Both Trump and his political coalition had demonstrated more of a recent commitment to Israel’s security than the Democratic Party over which Biden was losing his grip. Now Trump clearly wants to will his way to phase two, with a permanent end of the war. Some of that will entail things, like disarming and defanging Hamas, that Netanyahu might like if it can actually be done. But it is not clear his and Trump’s endgame here are entirely the same, and Trump has made commitments to Arab states as well. As has been the case with Russia and Ukraine, Trump will probably exert maximum pressure on whichever side he feels is the biggest obstacle to his goals. That has not always brought success, as when trying to end the war in Ukraine. It may soon reach its limits in the Middle East as well. When Nixon went to China, both the conservative journalist M. Stanton Evans and the right-wing congressman John Schmitz made some version of the joke that they objected only to his return trip.  Some erstwhile Trump allies in either the pro-Israel community or more restraint-oriented parts of the America First movement may say the same about his Middle East jet-setting. Or, future generations may instead say “only Trump could go to Gaza.” The post Could Only Trump Go to Gaza? appeared first on The American Conservative.
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