Newly minted Democratic vice presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz (MN) has a major problem on his hands due to his penchant for embellishing his record of service at the Army National Guard. The networks who so warmly welcomed him into the race are now doing their level best to spin this problem away. Watch as ABC’s Selina Wang tries to wave the whole thing away by noting that Vance didn’t engage in any hostilities while in Iraq, echoing the Harris campaign and making up a Walz counterattack that never happened: SELINA WANG: New rivals Vance and Walz, both veterans. Vance, who deployed to Iraq in the Marines and did not see any active fighting, going after Walz's military background, accusing him of leaving his unit before it deployed to Iraq, and lying about his service. Seizing on this moment: TIM WALZ: And we can make sure those weapons of war that I carried in war is the only place where those weapons are at. JD VANCE: He has not spent a day in a combat zone. What bothers me about Tim Walz is the stolen valor garbage. Do not pretend to be something that you're not. WANG: Reporter: Walz served in the Army National Guard for 24 years and has never claimed to have seen active combat, despite those comments that he carried a gun in war. He retired honorably in 2005 to run for congress as the crisis in Iraq was growing. The Harris campaign saying in a statement, the Governor carried, fired, and trained others to use weapons of war innumerable times. Governor Walz would never insult or undermine any American's service to his country. In fact, he thanks Senator Vance for putting his life on the line for our country. It's the American way. Walz hitting right back. WALZ: Donald Trump, he sees the world differently than we see it. He has no understanding of service. “Hitting right back”, says Wang without evidence of Walz directly addressing the claims presented by multiple parties going back to the 2000s. CBS’s Nancy Cordes didn’t do much better, closing out her live hit from the Harris rally with this weak offering: NANCY CORDES: The Vance campaign has also been going after Walz all day for retiring from the Army National Guard a few months before his battalion being called up to Iraq. Onstage today, Walz said he proudly wore the uniform for 24 years and retired in order to run for Congress. Major. There’s a pattern there- the deflection to Walz’s 24 years of service in the Guard. In contrast, NBC’s Gabe Gutierrez simply aired what everyone else said, with no “seasoning” of his own: GABE GUTIERREZ: Vance also slamming Walz for these past comments calling for gun control, saying he carried weapons during war. WALZ: And we can make sure those weapons of war that I carried in war is the only place where those weapons are at. GUTIERREZ: Walz served in the National Guard but never in combat. VANCE: Well, I wonder, Tim Walz, when were you ever in war? When was this -- what was this weapon that you carried into war? GUTIERREZ: Today the Harris campaign said Walz carried, fired and trained others to use weapons of war innumerable times. Governor Walz would never insult or undermine any American service to this country.  The “24 years” stuff is misdirection and “How Dare You” bait that attempts to deflect from the substance of the accusations against Walz, to wit: that he dropped out of Sergeant Major school, completion of which was a condition of his promotion to Command Sergeant Major of his artillery battalion, upon learning that the unit would deploy to Iraq.  This story is rapidly moving, with new and shocking details continuously emerging. As Joe Simonson of The Washington Free Beacon reports, Walz KNEW. Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz knew his National Guard battalion was being eyed for a likely deployment to Iraq when he decided to retire, the Washington Free Beacon has learned. Walz said he had a "responsibility" to "serve if called on," shortly before he dropped out of the Guard, an archived campaign statement shows. That statement eliminates any doubt over whether Walz knew an Iraq deployment was on the table when he decided to leave the service. A source who served in the Minnesota National Guard at the time previously told the Free Beacon that the timing of Walz’s retirement "left a bad taste in a lot of peoples’ mouths." "As Command Sergeant Major, I have a responsibility not only to ready my battalion for Iraq, but also to serve if called on," Walz said in a campaign statement on March 20, 2005. Just three days prior, the National Guard Public Affairs Office announced that at least part of his battalion could be shipped overseas to the Middle East in the next two years. Walz left the National Guard that May. Two months later, his battalion was put on notice that they would be deploying to Iraq. This is in addition to emerging photographic and video evidence of Walz’s embellishments and false claims of being a veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, which would’ve entailed deployment to Afghanistan. At a bare minimum, the press should put as much effort into this story as it did into unearthing Senator JD Vance’s past statements after his selection as Trump’s running mate. There is a lot that Walz must answer for in the coming days. Unfortunately, the press seems more interested in making this all go away than in getting answers and drilling down. Click “expand” to view the full transcripts of the aforementioned reports as aired on their respective network newscasts on Wednesday, August 7th, 2024: ABC WORLD NEWS TONIGHT ABC WORLD NEWS TONIGHT 8/7/24 6:36 PM  LINDSEY DAVIS: We move on now to the race for The White House. The newly formed Democratic ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz, barnstorming the Upper Midwest in this their first full day of campaigning together. One day after debuting the ticket in Philadelphia, Vice President Harris and Governor Walz spoke to crowds in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, and just outside Detroit. Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance is shadowing their moves. Vance also in Eau Claire trying to cross paths with Harris and Walz on the tarmac. The Democratic running mates continue their blitz through the battlegrounds in the coming days, with Vance not far behind. ABC's Selina Wang checks in from Michigan. SELINA WANG: Tonight, the race for The White House is in full swing, with both campaigns battling to win the Midwest. Air force Two and JD Vance's campaign plane meeting on the tarmac. JD VANCE: I just wanted to check out my future plane. WANG: Holding dueling rallies in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. VANCE: How great it is to be here in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS: Good afternoon, Wisconsin. WANG: Vice President Kamala Harris and her new running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz on the trail for their first full day of campaigning, drawing another huge crowd. HARRIS: So, in the next 90 days, we need you to use your power. We need you to knock on doors. We need you to register folks to vote. We need you to energize, and organize, and mobilize and make your voices heard. WANG: The campaign saying they've raised $36 million in the 24 hours since Walz has been on the ticket. A new poll out today shows Harris and Donald Trump effectively tied among likely Wisconsin voters. Harris hoping Walz, from bordering Minnesota, will help them take the state. New rivals Vance and Walz, both veterans. Vance, who deployed to Iraq in the Marines and did not see any active fighting, going after Walz's military background, accusing him of leaving his unit before it deployed to Iraq, and lying about his service. Seizing on this moment: WALZ: And we can make sure those weapons of war that I carried in war is the only place where those weapons are at. VANCE: He has not spent a day in a combat zone. What bothers me about Tim Walz is the stolen valor garbage. Do not pretend to be something that you're not. WANG: Reporter: Walz served in the Army National Guard for 24 years and has never claimed to have seen active combat, despite those comments that he carried a gun in war. He retired honorably in 2005 to run for congress as the crisis in Iraq was growing. The Harris campaign saying in a statement, the Governor carried, fired, and trained others to use weapons of war innumerable times. Governor Walz would never insult or undermine any American's service to his country. In fact, he thanks Senator Vance for putting his life on the line for our country. It's the American way. Walz hitting right back. WALZ: Donald Trump, he sees the world differently than we see it. He has no understanding of service, because he's too busy servicing himself again and again and again. Again and again and again. This guy weakens our country to strengthen his hand. DAVIS: Let's get right to Selina Wang, live outside Detroit. And Selina, both campaigns in Michigan tonight. There is a keen awareness of just how important both these battleground states are. WANG: That's right, Linsey. Harris and Walz, they are racing to win over voters in these critical battleground states, well aware that this election is only 90 days away. And they've had massive crowds at their rallies, and they've been energized and fired up including here in Michigan. JD Vance, on the other hand, he’s been following Harris in every state that she's been visiting, but opting to hold smaller campaign events instead of rallies. Linsey? DAVIS: Selina for us, thanks so much. CBS EVENING NEWS CBS EVENING NEWS 8/7/24 6:34 PM MAJOR GARRETT: Meanwhile, Kamala Harris and her new running mate Tim Walz held a rally in battleground Wisconsin today, at the same time, in the same city as  Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance. This split screen moment comes as we’re learning tonight that a 2020 phone call from Donald Trump may undercut his own campaign's attack line against Walz. Here is CBS's Nancy Cordes. NANCY CORDES: It's the first full day of their partnership, and the second day that the lines to see Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz stretched out of sight. TIM WALZ: You had to walk 2 miles. I had nothing to do with that, by the way.  Nothing. CORDES: It happened here in Detroit, and in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, population 70,000. WALZ: Donald Trump is not for you or your family. And Trump's running mate shares those same dangerous and backward beliefs. CORDES: It is here in the Midwest where the campaign is hoping Walz will do the most to attract new voters. VOTER: We could relate to him. He was real. Um- and we need that. We- we need someone that is real. CORDES: The Republican VP nominee, Ohio Senator JD Vance, has been counterprogramming, holding events nearby. Today, he even walked from his plane over to Vice President Harris' plane on the tarmac in Wisconsin. VANCE: I just wanted to check out my future plane, but I also wanted to go say hello to the Vice President and ask her why Kamala Harris refuses -- why does she refuse to answer questions from the media? CORDES: Vance and Trump have been going after Governor Walz for his handling of the unrest in Minneapolis after George Floyd was killed by police in 2020. VANCE: I think Governor Walz has to answer when it comes to his record. This is a guy who says that he stands for public safety, but actively encouraged the rioters who burned down Minneapolis. CORDES: But at the time, Trump was full of praise for Walz, according to this audio recording of a phone call with governors. DONALD TRUMP: Tim is on the phone now. Tim Walz. Again, I was very happy with the last couple of days, Tim. You called up big numbers and the big numbers knocked them out so fast it was like bowling pins.  CORDES: The Vance campaign has also been going after Walz all day for retiring from the Army National Guard a few months before his battalion being called up to Iraq. Onstage today, Walz said he proudly wore the uniform for 24 years and retired in order to run for Congress. Major. GARRETT: Competing with the campaign noise in Detroit and doing so admirably. Nancy Cordes, thank you. NBC NIGHTLY NEWS NBC NIGHTLY NEWS 8/7/24 LESTER HOLT: Now to the race for The White House  with Vice President Harris and her new running mate, Tim Walz, hitting key Midwestern states today and the Trump campaign sending JD Vance to those same battlegrounds. Here's Gabe Gutierrez. GABE GUTIERREZ: Tonight, a battleground blitz. Vice President Kamala Harris and her new running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz sweeping through Midwestern swing states.  KAMALA HARRIS: As we work to move our nation forward, Donald Trump intends to take our nation backward. GUTIERREZ: The ticket riding a wave of Democratic enthusiasm and cash. The campaign saying it's raised $36 million since yesterday's announcement. Walz today going after former President Trump while talking about the experience he and his wife had with IVF. TIM WALZ: When Vice President Harris and I- everyone here talks about freedom, we mean the freedom to make your own health care decisions.  GUTIERREZ: Harris did not previously know Walz well, but multiple sources tell NBC News she chose him because they clicked during an in-person interview on Sunday and that it came down to trusting her gut. HARRIS: We are running a campaign on behalf of all Americans. And when elected, we will govern on behalf of all Americans.  GUTIERREZ: Late today, President Biden was asked if there will be a peaceful transfer of power. JOE BIDEN: If Trump loses I'm not confident at all. He means what he says. We don't take him seriously. GUTIERREZ: Democrats highlighting Walz’s working class rural background and two decades in the Army National Guard. Former President Trump arguing Walz is too far left to win. DONALD TRUMP: He’s a very, very liberal man and he's a shocking pick and I'm thrilled -- I could not be more thrilled. GUTIERREZ: Meanwhile, his running mate JD Vance's plane landing at the same tarmac as Air Force Two, holding events near the Democrats. JD VANCE: And if what Kamala Harris has done at the southern border and if what Kamala Harris has done to raise the price of groceries and housing, if that doesn't bother you, then I think you don't have a pulse. GUTIERREZ: Vance also slamming Walz for these past comments calling for gun control, saying he carried weapons during war. WALZ: And we can make sure those weapons of war that I carried in war is the only place where those weapons are at. GUTIERREZ: Walz served in the National Guard but never in combat. VANCE: Well, I wonder, Tim Walz, when were you ever in war? When was this -- what was this weapon that you carried into war? GUTIERREZ: Today the Harris campaign said Walz carried, fired and trained others to use weapons of war innumerable times. Governor Walz would never insult or undermine any American service to this country.  While back here in Michigan, Harris and Walz trying to shore up union support. AFT MEMBER: I’ve had so many people that have come forward and said they're so excited for this energy that she has brought. It's electrifying. I don't know if Joe Biden could have done that for us. GUTIERREZ: But some Arab-American voters are still skeptical. We first met Lori Kamleh Ajlouny in February, back then she wouldn't vote for President Biden because of his response to civilian deaths in Gaza. Harris now leading the ticket makes her more hopeful but -- LORI KAMLEH ALJOUNY: I'm still very leery, nervous, that it may be more of the same. GUTIERREZ: At this point, do you plan to vote for Kamala Harris? ALJOUNY: Not unless I hear a permanent unconditional cease-fire. HOLT: And, Gabe, with 90 days to go the race in these battlegrounds is showing signs of heating up. GUTIERREZ: Yes, Lester, Harris and Walz are set to meet with union members here in Michigan tomorrow before heading out West to key battlegrounds Ariona and Nevada. Trump is set to campaign in Montana on Friday. Lester. HOLT: Gabe Gutierrez. Thank you.  

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Is there intelligent life in the Universe? And if so, just how common is it? Or perhaps the question should be, what are the odds that those engaged in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) will encounter it someday? For decades, scientists have hotly debated this topic, and no shortage of ink has been spilled on the subject. From the many papers and studies that have been written on the subject, two main camps have emerged: those who believe life is common in our galaxy (aka. SETI Optimists) and those who maintain that extraterrestrial intelligence is either rare or non-existent (SETI Pessimists). In a recent paper, David Kipping (Prof. “Cool Worlds” himself) and Geraint Lewis examined this debate more closely and offered a fresh take based on a form of probability analysis known as Jayne’s Experiment. By applying this method to astrobiology and the Drake Equation, they concluded that the existence of intelligent life in our galaxy may be an “all or nothing” proposition. To quote the late and great scientist and science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke: “Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the Universe, or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.” David Kipping is an Associate Professor of Astronomy at Columbia University and a Carl Sagan Fellow at the Harvard College Observatory. He is also the Principle Investigator of the Cool Worlds Lab at Columbia, which is dedicated to studying and characterizing exoplanet systems. Geraint Lewis is a Professor of Astrophysics at the Sydney Institute for Astronomy, part of the University of Sydney’s School of Physics. Their paper, “Do SETI Optimists Have a Fine-Tuning Problem?” recently appeared online and is being reviewed for publication in the International Journal of Astrobiology. The Drake Equation In 1961, famed astronomer Frank Drake hosted the first SETI meeting ever at the Greenbank Observatory in West Virginia. In preparation for the event, he created an equation summarizing the challenges SETI researchers faced. This came to be known as the Drake Equation and is expressed mathematically as: N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L Where: N is the number of currently active, communicative civilizations in our galaxy. R* is the rate at which stars form in our galaxy. fp is the fraction of stars with planets. ne is the number of planets that can potentially host life, per star that has planets. fl is the fraction of the above that actually do develop life of any kind. fi is the fraction of the above that develop intelligent life. fc is the fraction of the above that develop the capacity for interstellar communication. L is the length of time that such communicative civilizations are active. The Drake Equation was not intended to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilizations (ETCs) in our galaxy but to stimulate dialogue about SETI. Since Drake first formulated it, the equation has been subject to criticism, additions, and revisions and has often been misrepresented in the process. As Prof. Kipping explained to Universe Today via email, part of the problem is how values are often arbitrarily applied to the parameters: “Since we don’t know most of the parameters, this is just pure speculation, and it should be labeled as such. Another point often missed is that it represents the mean number of civilizations and, thus, an expectation value of some underlying distribution. These days, it’s become a bit of a sport to critique the Drake equation. Certainly, anyone using it as a calculator should be fairly criticized, but the basic idea is not wrong. There must be some number of civilizations out there, and we could, in principle, collect relevant parameters to calculate it. The issues arise in the exact formulation, which parameters to include, what they really mean, and how to deal with nuances like time variability.” Jayne’s Experiment Edwin Jaynes (1922-1998) was the Wayman Crow Distinguished Professor of Physics at Washington University in St. Louis. In 1968, he imagined an experiment where a person in a lab is presented with a jar containing an unknown and unlabelled compound (chemical X). Along a laboratory bench, there are a large number of beakers filled with water, and the experiment is to test how often chemical X will dissolve within them. Jaynes argued that one should expect the compound to either dissolve in nearly every instance or almost never. The function of the Haldane prior (F –1(1 – F ) –1) that captures this behavior. Credit: D. Kipping & G. Lewis (2024). When plotted on a graph, the probability distribution would be bowl-shaped, with values peeking at 0 and 1. As Kipping explained in more detail: “Jaynes imagined a series of what we call Bernoulli experiments – that is, experiments that return yes/no answers. These could be anything really, but as an example, he imagined dissolving an unknown chemical into a series of beakers containing water and then asking – what fraction of them will dissolve? Another scientist, the legendary John Haldane, had already suggested that an answer of ~50% was unlikely a-priori. One should expect that either nearly all of them will dissolve or hardly any. “Jaynes rigorously proved that and pioneered many of the tools of objective Bayesian inference. We can equally replace the Bernoulli experiment under consideration to other questions, like what fraction of stars will become a black hole? Before obtaining any observations, an answer of ~50% would be surprising, implying that the distribution of stellar masses is finely balanced such that half are above the critical mass threshold and half below. In reality the answer is one-in-a-thousand, which falls in line with Jayne’s position.” Because of his immense contributions to the field of statistics, Jaynes is credited with being one of the founders of “Objective Bayesianism.” While his experiment was not intended as such, Kipping and Lewis saw its potential application in astrobiology. All or Nothing? In his seminal 1983 paper, “The Great Silence – the Controversy Concerning Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life,” David Brin addressed the ongoing debate regarding the existence of extraterrestrial life. From this, he discerned the presence of two camps when it came to the debate: “Contact Optimists” and “Contact Pessimists” – or as Kipping and Lewis refer to them in their paper, “SETI Optimists” and “SETI Pessimists” – those who believe that there are civilizations in our galaxy humanity can make contact with and those who believe it is fruitless since humanity is alone in the Universe. When Jaynes’ Experiment is applied to the question of intelligent life in our galaxy, we should expect that it would either be very common or very rare. In the middle, where the probability distribution is weakest (i.e., extraterrestrial life is semi-common), is where the “fine-tuning problem” emerges. In the context of cosmology and astrobiology, fine-tuning refers to the proposition that the conditions for life can occur only when certain universal constants lie within a very narrow range of values. If any of these fundamental constants were slightly different, the Universe would not be conducive to the development of matter, large-scale structures, or life as we know it. As Kipping explained, this presents a problem for SETI Optimists: “Unlike the black hole example I gave you earlier, there’s no lower bounds on this problem. With black holes, we know the smallest and biggest allowed star mass from astrophysics and it’s only a few orders of magnitude. The black hole threshold must be in that fairly narrow range somewhere. When it comes to aliens, the probability of intelligence could be 1% or 0.000….00001% (add as many zero’s as you like). “With a such a vast range of possibilities, SETI optimists have to believe the rather contrived view that the % value is not so high that we wouldn’t see anyone yet, but certainly far higher than the deep abyss of low probabilities that are plausible. Thus they have a fine-tuning problem essentially, needing the percentage to live in a fairly narrow corridor.” If our galaxy were filled with extraterrestrial civilizations, surely there would be undeniable signs that we would have noticed—i.e., radio signals, megastructures, Clarke Bands, and other “technosignatures.” If this is starting to sound familiar, it’s because this argument is the very core of the Fermi Paradox (which we have written an entire series about!) As such, one could construe Kipping and Lewis’ argument as an example of SETI Pessimism. Luckily, the story does not end there. A New Formalism Faced with this result, Kipping and Lewis attempted to devise a new formalism for the Drake Equation that considers just two processes: the birth rate and the death rate of civilizations. When this is done, all of the parameters in the equation (except for L, the lifespan of civilizations) collapse into a single parameter: the birth and death rate of civilizations (rc). Or as it would appear mathematically: NC = rc x LC. Said Kipping: “In the standard Drake equation, we often get caught up arguing about which parameters to include (should there be a fraction for the probability of life developing into multicellular life, for example). But it’s completely undeniable that every civilisations must have a beginning and an end, in fact we can even set the death rate to zero which corresponds to infinite lifetimes if we so desire in this framework. In an ecological system, like a petri dish, for example, there is a well-defined maximum possible population that we call the carrying capacity. So, we updated the birth-death version of the Drake equation to account for this nuance.” Kipping and Lewis’s revised formalism for the Drake Equation, based on the theoretical birth and death rates of civilizations. Credit: Kipping, D. & Lewis, G. (2024) In this case, the distribution of probabilities became S-shaped (see image above), but the end result was still the same: either the galaxy is crowded or empty. One way around this is the idea that humanity could be alive during a period in which ETCs have emerged and are beginning to expand throughout the galaxy and thus have not been noticed by our instruments yet. However, as Kipping and Lewis showed, this also suffers from the fine-tuning problem, as biology indicates that population growth is an accelerating phenomenon. “You see, galactic expansion phases should be relatively quick on a cosmic timescale; in fact, really like the blink of an eye,” said Kipping. “So it’s unlikely you’d live during such a phase; you’re more likely to live when the galaxy is essentially empty before this happens or after it’s happened (which, in fact, is arguably impossible since your planet is colonized). Once again, Fermi’s Paradox rears its head, where the strongest likelihood is that humanity is either alone, early to the party, or one of a few civilizations currently existing in the Milky Way. Hope for SETI? But before you go thinking it’s all bad news, Kipping and Lewis emphasize that SETI is an important and vital experiment that deserves dedicated resources. “While the odds of success appear small, such a success would arguably represent the most impactful scientific discovery in human history,” they conclude. They also suggest several reasons to remain hopeful, which include Hanson’s “Grabby Aliens” hypothesis, which states that humanity is at the midpoint in the S-shaped curve and that we will encounter an ETI in a few hundred million years. In the meantime, Kipping also suggests that SETI could benefit from casting a wider net. If, as their study suggests, advanced civilizations are very rare (or non-existent) in our galaxy, then we should look to extra-galactic sources. “I think my favorite way out is that our galaxy is just unusually quiet, most are busy and filled, but we are the first in the Milky Way,” he added. “This seems improbable, but perhaps being born in a busy galaxy is impossible since the habitable real estate has already been gobbled up. This suggests we should put more emphasis on extra-galactic SETI as our best shot.” Further Reading: arXiv The post New Study Suggests that Our Galaxy is Crowded or Empty. Both are Equally Terrifying! appeared first on Universe Today.

Positively too beautiful to eat.