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India’s Modi Wins a Third Term — But No Majority
The Indian electorate of nearly 970 million registered voters has spoken. Turnout has been estimated at over 66 percent in a seven-phase election that started on April 19.
Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi has been elected to a third five-year term. Not since Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister after independence in 1947 and Congress Party leader, has that country had such a popular and consequential political figure. Indeed, there was a time during that era of decolonization and socialism when the country was “Nehru’s India.”
However, for the last 10 years, that appellation has belonged to Modi, who has been unchallenged — earning an absolute majority of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the lower house of Parliament, known as the Lok Sabha. The BJP, which is referred to as the “the saffron party” in the Indian press, has had no need to govern through awkward coalitions for which the Congress Party was well known.
The BJP victory is far from the landslide predicted by pundits and exit polls. The Election Commission of India confirms that the BJP has won 240 of 543 parliamentary seats, with Congress Party in second place, showing an improved performance at 99, up from 52 in 2019, the last general election. (In 2019, the BJP polled 303 seats). This means that to achieve a majority of 272, the BJP must now govern with coalition partners from regional parties in states such as Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka. Historically, the BJP has led the Democratic National Alliance, although it did so in its own right without need of others.
What is most surprising is the shockingly weak showing by the BJP in the 10 states that comprise the Hindi belt, the traditional BJP fortress in the north. In 2019, the BJP won nearly 80 percent of the 225 seats of this region — yet now the BJP has won only 56 percent of those. In particular, the BJP won only 40 percent of the 80 seats of Hindi-speaking Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous state, with over 240 million people. Further, the Congress Party has made a strong showing in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Telangana — in 2019 it had barely any traction in those states. Also in West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress has strengthened its position versus the BJP, winning 40 percent more seats than in 2019.
Indian governance has now become more complicated, and the BJP no longer has absolute control. A linear approach with an absolute majority must now yield to a more lateral and collaborative one. Given the increased importance of regional parties that must align with the BJP, defection of roughly 20 seats could bring on a political crisis for the BJP-led coalition.
So why did this setback for the BJP happen?
The factors of inflation and unemployment have been cited. Inflation is running near 5 percent, and last month, the unemployment rate rose to 8.1 percent, up from 7.4 percent in March. Although GDP growth is running at an impressive rate of over 8 percent, food inflation rate above 8 percent during the last six months has hurt the poor and rural populations. Further, job creation has not met the expectations of the “Make in India” program announced in 2014: Manufacturing and IT now account for only 20 percent of the workforce.
Other contributing factors are more nuanced. The Indian Constitution effective in 1950, declares the country to be secular — and its 200 million Muslims are the largest religious minority. Critics of the BJP say that the party’s rhetoric has been divisive with respect to Muslims and other minorities. Further, the enormous Ayodhya temple recently inaugurated by the BJP was a flashpoint. It is a dramatic edifice constructed on the site of what was a mosque and believed to the birthplace of Lord Ram (also written “Rama”). Rama is the archer and the seventh incarnation of Lord Vishnu of the Hindu trinity — he is celebrated in the ancient epic about chivalry, the Ramayana. Ironically, the BJP lost in the Ayodhya constituency.
Further, the recent yatras (foot march and road trip) of Rahul Gandhi, leader of the Congress Party and great-grandson of Nehru, seem to have invigorated the Congress Party, whose fortunes had declined in recent years. Covering more than 6,000 miles across India on foot, Gandhi’s march was dedicated to social justice.
Although the opposition forces have dealt the BJP an electoral setback, the accomplishments of Modi and his party since 2014 have been remarkable. India now ranks as the world’s fifth-largest economy (nominal GDP), having surpassed the United Kingdom and France. The U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley believes that India may be positioned to be the world’s third-largest economy within three years — with the third-largest stock exchange by 2030. As I have written in The American Spectator, examples of other major accomplishments include the lunar landing last August of spacecraft Chandrayaan-3; advancement of the “Aadhaar” national biometric identification program to direct subsidies and eliminate fraud, among other things; increased rural electrification in India’s over 650,000 villages, with over 28 million getting electricity between 2019 and 2021 alone; and a public sanitation program sponsored by Modi and cited by UNICEF as increasing sanitation access to 450 million people between 2015 and 2019.
Going forward in domestic politics, Modi and BJP will have to pitch to some regional constituencies and try to limit the increasing influence of the Congress Party. Mandating ideas and programs will not be as easy, although Modi is well known for his execution skills.
India should be expected to continue its balancing act among the West, Russia, and the Global South. Arms imports from Russia, now having decreased to 36 percent of India’s total of arms imports, will also be a key component of India’s military, also in part preventing full systems integration with the West. India’s sourcing of Russian oil at discounts should also be expected to continue, as Rahul Gandhi has endorsed maintaining good relations with Russia. (For most of fiscal 2023, such purchases saved the country nearly $8 billion). In Western capitals, there has been criticism of these purchases, which fuel the Russian war machine against Ukraine. However, in a remarkably preposterous statement, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Geoffrey Pyatt has stated that there is no conflict with India’s status as a U.S. partner and its reliance on Russian oil.
Over the years, the U.S. relationship with India has been fundamentally transactional, and frustrating from time to time. Our foreign policy establishment has tended to romanticize shared values such as democracy, the English language, Western law, and free markets. While these are nonetheless common ties, India will pursue its national interest — wherever that leads. If the West could solve India’s energy requirements and need for weaponry, given its 4,000-mile borders with Pakistan and China, the U.S. relationship with India could morph into something more strategically satisfying. The U.S. and India both need each other — due to fear of China, vulnerability to Islamist jihad, and opportunities for trade and investment.
We must wish Prime Minister Modi well, as he governs on a new political landscape.
Frank Schell is a business strategy consultant and former senior vice president of the First National Bank of Chicago. He was a lecturer at the Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, and is a contributor of opinion pieces to various journals.
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