For something we’re all just toting around without a second thought‚ the human brain has some very impressive capabilities. So impressive‚ in fact‚ that even the most sophisticated computers cannot yet replicate all its functions. But that could be about to change. Scientists at Western Sydney University just unveiled their new supercomputer DeepSouth‚ the first that will be capable of simulating a full-scale human brain.When it’s operational‚ DeepSouth will be capable of performing a staggering 228 trillion synaptic operations per second. This is comparable to the level of activity across all the many interconnected neurons within the brain‚ and it’s all thanks to its innovative neuromorphic design.“Progress in our understanding of how brains compute using neurons is hampered by our inability to simulate brain like networks at scale‚” said Professor André van Schaik‚ director of the International Centre for Neuromorphic Systems (ICNS) at Western Sydney‚ in a statement. “Simulating spiking neural networks on standard computers using Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) and multicore Central Processing Units (CPUs) is just too slow and power intensive. Our system will change that.”The brain is a highly energy-efficient system‚ and scientists have so far struggled to replicate this efficiency in a synthetic computer. Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Frontier supercomputer‚ considered by many to be the fastest computer in the world at present‚ requires 22.7 megawatts to run‚ as Domenico Vicinanza‚ Associate Professor of Intelligent Systems and Data Science at Anglia Ruskin University‚ explained for The Conversation.The human brain‚ by contrast‚ can operate at the same speed – a billion-billion calculations per second‚ also known as an exaflop – with just 20 watts.DeepSouth will therefore allow researchers to explore computing in a less power-hungry way.A concept image of DeepSouth.Image credit: ICNS/Western Sydney UniversityThe neuromorphic design is also fundamentally distinct from that of traditional electronic computers‚ which has remained basically unchanged for many decades. Up to now‚ computers have been characterized by separate processing and memory units – data is stored in one place‚ and manipulated in another.While we may still have much to learn about how memory works in the human brain‚ we’re pretty sure that it doesn’t work quite like this‚ so scientists are looking to the computers inside our heads for inspiration as they design the machines of the future.DeepSouth’s neuromorphic circuitry is based on networks of simple processors that can all work in parallel. It mimics the way different neurons in the brain‚ connected via synapses‚ can fire simultaneously. The system will be scalable and easily reprogrammable from the front end using the popular Python programming language‚ meaning that researchers will be able to make use of the technology without an intimate understanding of the hardware itself.But exactly what kinds of applications could we be talking about?“This platform will progress our understanding of the brain and develop brain-scale computing applications in diverse fields including sensing‚ biomedical‚ robotics‚ space‚ and large-scale AI applications‚” Professor van Schaik explained‚ going on to list advanced smart devices‚ agricultural sensors‚ and more efficient artificial intelligence (AI) platforms as just some of the possibilities.Speaking to New Scientist‚ Ralph Etienne-Cummings of Johns Hopkins University‚ who is not directly involved in the DeepSouth project‚ also suggested how the supercomputer could benefit research like his own – after three decades of research in the fields of mobile robotics and legged locomotion‚ he has latterly made great strides in the world of neuroprostheses and brain-computer interfaces.“If you are trying to understand the brain this will be the hardware to do it on‚” he said.DeepSouth – whose name is a nod to its location in Sydney‚ Australia as well as a homage to two doyens of the supercomputing world‚ IBM’s Deep Blue and TrueNorth – will hopefully go online in April 2024. Until then‚ we’ll have to wait to find out just what science will be able to achieve by packing all the power of a human brain into a supercomputer.

Digging a hole straight through the Earth is an extremely popular thought experiment. It can teach people about so many properties of our planet as well as some pretty cool physics. However‚ the process of digging such a hole is impossible‚ and not just because the interior of our world goes through molten and liquid layers before meeting the solid inner core. Even on a planet or moon that is solid throughout‚ the pressure experienced by a deeper layer would be impossible to cut through.But we are armed with our sophisticated thought technology‚ and we have dug our hole. Our beautiful hole of roughly 12‚756 kilometers (7‚926 miles) is ready. I am about to cut the ribbon to inaugurate the completion of the work when you run past me and jump in shouting “Cannonball!” A solitary tear runs down my cheek. You have just jumped to your death.Some like it hotOur hole through the Earth is a death trap‚ for many reasons. The first thing that would kill you is the temperature. If you have ever been down a mine‚ you might have noticed that it gets hot. The deepest humans have ever drilled is the Kola Superdeep Borehole‚ which reached just over 12 kilometers (7.5 miles) or about 0.1 percent of the length of our imaginary hole.The reason why they stopped drilling was the temperature. Just 12 kilometers down‚ the bottom of the hole reached a temperature of 180°C (356°F). The scientists working on the project did not expect such a value‚ it was much higher than the models had estimated.If it is any consolation‚ it won’t take long. The journey through a hole across our planet is estimated to take 38 minutes and 11 seconds. You would be roasted much sooner than you get to the other side.Under pressureSaddened by your loss‚ I turned on my time reversal machine (another patented invention in Thought Space) to before you jumped. I explain what happened in that other timeline‚ and ask you to wear a heat protection suit but not to interrupt my ceremony. As I go to cut the ribbon once again‚ you barge in and jump. Despite the protection of the suit‚ I know you are going to die once again.This time‚ the killer is pressure. You will be crushed by the massive increase in pressure. At sea level‚ you are experiencing about a few tens of kilometers of air above you. In the hole‚ you’d get thousands of kilometers. The air will become so pressurized and compressed that it will experience phase transitions‚ likely becoming a superfluid. And you will become part of that concoction.Death rattleOnce again‚ the time reversal is put to work. I explain the situation‚ and you point out that if the pressure gets so high‚ we probably have evacuated all the air from the surface of the planet‚ killing most life forms‚ including all 8 billion of us on the surface. Cross with you for pointing this out‚ I go back in time again to the design phase and make sure the hole is under vacuum.You are now slowly lowering yourself into the airlock. And dive‚ safe from temperature and pressure. And then you die. Ok‚ this one is on me. The design has the hole going from outside your house to the other side of the world‚ and you are bringing with you the rotational acceleration you had when you left‚ due to the spin of the Earth. But as you move inside the Earth‚ this makes you drift into the walls. At high speed. So you will be banging on the walls‚ faster and faster‚ like a ragdoll. That's got to hurt. We had a good runThe solution to that is having the hole through the axis of rotation of the Earth. Having relocated it there‚ you can now jump safely from the North Pole‚ arriving in the South Pole 38 minutes and 11 seconds later. You might still die because no vacuum is perfect‚ so a bit of air might slow you down in the middle and make you lose the momentum you need to attach yourself to the opposite airlock. This could be fixed with a strong push from the beginning.Well‚ that depends on whether I have forgiven you for pointing out the dark‚ apocalyptic nature of my thought experiment. 

You’ve got to love a scientific paper that includes the line‚ “The Sun is formidable and destroying it is generally considered to be a difficult problem.” Rather than a primer for a Bond villain‚ the study in question instead explores the possibility the Sun could be hiding a black hole inside‚ and whether doing so would have destroyed the Sun by now.Now and then‚ scientists acknowledge science fiction writers as the originators of ideas subsequently shown to have scientific merit. Inspiration from music‚ even major hits of the 90s‚ is rarer. Yet it was Soundgarden’s song Black Hole Sun that inspired Dr Earl Bellinger of the Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics to start thinking about whether such things could exist.Stellar black holes are created by the collapse of stars with masses of more than 25 times the Sun in supernova explosions. It would have been easy enough for Bellinger to simply add a word to the title and conclude that “Black hole‚ (former) Sun” was scientifically correct. Instead‚ he enlisted eight colleagues in the quest to discover if it was possible for an apparently ordinary star to have a black hole inside it.Surprisingly‚ they think the answer is yes.Black holes famously have such strong gravity even light cannot escape them‚ so it might seem illogical to think that objects whose most obvious characteristic is that they shine could be overcoming that force to light the universe. However‚ quasars are brighter still‚ and they are powered by supermassive black holes at their cores.Indeed‚ even Stephen Hawking suggested there might be a primordial black hole at the center of the Sun. The idea never took off‚ but Bellinger and colleagues have explored how stars would evolve if it were true.The background to the study is the idea that in the first second after the Big Bang many smallish black holes were formed‚ with masses similar to the Moon or smaller. The smallest black holes would evaporate‚ but those the size of a large asteroid would still be in existence‚ drifting around the universe‚ a thought that is absolutely not terrifying in any way.Potentially these primordial black holes might be abundant enough that they could explain at least some of the missing dark matter in the universe. Most of the holes would be drifting between the stars‚ camouflaged enough we have yet to identify one‚ but if one ventured into the gas cloud in which a star is forming it might end up in the star’s core.The project was to work out what would happen if this were real‚ and if so whether the effects would be something we could detect.Black holes less massive than the asteroid Psyche‚ the study concluded‚ would have no externally noticeable effects. Although they would consume surrounding areas of the star‚ the affected area would be so small that an outside observer could never distinguish stars with and without such black holes‚However‚ at the larger end of the mass range the authors deem credible‚ things would be different. Slowly the black hole would consume the star from the inside like some sort of terrible parasite‚ shutting down the fusion reactions that produce the star’s energy. This would cause the star to dim when counterparts of similar age and mass would be growing (slightly) brighter. If the Sun had a Black Hole whose mass had now reached a millionth of that of the Sun’s (about three times the mass of Mars)‚ it would lose about half its brightness over a period of 100 million years. Then‚ however‚ the star would brighten‚ as black hole accretion replaced nuclear fusion as its main source of energy. The star would puff up to become a red giant prematurely‚ and would show some differences that would reveal its true nature.For one thing‚ it would have more helium at the surface than other red giants‚ and would never get quite as large – in the Sun’s case expanding only to the orbit of Mercury‚ not almost to that of Earth.The class of stars known as red stragglers (brighter than subgiants but with colors also as red as red giants) are candidates for stars of this nature‚ the authors propose. If so‚ they should vibrate differently from stars without an internal secret‚ something future projects could study. Eventually‚ such a star will become consumed‚ ending up as a naked black hole with a mass larger than what it started with‚ but somewhat smaller than those left behind by supernova explosions.The exact details depend on the masses of both the initial black hole and the star around it‚ and the quantity of heavier elements (metals to stellar astronomers) in the star. The paper considers various scenarios‚ but there are far too many possibilities to cover them all.Besides checking stars for the distinguishing features the authors predict‚ we could determine the likelihood of such black hole stars existing by looking for evidence of primordial black holes elsewhere. Four of the black hole mergers we have detected so far involved one component that was low mass enough it might be from the early universe‚ but none are clear clear-cut cases.We’ve also seen many low-mass microlensing events from objects of the appropriate mass‚ but there is currently no way to distinguish most from free-floating planets.The study is published open access in The Astrophysical Journal.[H/T: Science]

At 10:17 pm UTC last night‚ a major eruption shook Iceland. The event has been expected for a while‚ but that makes it no less spectacular. It started with a series of strong quakes‚ and about an hour later lava fountains appeared from cracks in the ground. The fissure is currently about 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) long‚ with the lava flowing at a rate of around 100 to 200 cubic meters per second.Since late October‚ the Reykjanes peninsula of southwest Iceland has experienced intense geological activity. Quakes were the prelude to an eruption and in preparation for it‚ the fishing town of Grindavik was evacuated‚ leaving the 4‚000 inhabitants in temporary accommodation. The nearby Blue Lagoon geothermal spa‚ a well-known attraction‚ was also closed for safety reasons.The fissure is located a few kilometers from both locations but experts do not think there are any risks to either at the moment. The town of Grindavik has experienced damage with streets cracking as the build-up of magma took place under the Reykjanes peninsula.   The Fagradalsfjall system lies parallel to the fractures and it had not seen a volcanic eruption for 6‚000 years before the first one in 2021. Since then‚ there have been three eruptions in the Reykjanes Peninsula. The area is no longer dormant. Based on the volume of magma that has been estimated to lie underneath the region‚ experts are concerned that this eruption will be bigger than the last three combined. They are monitoring the situation closely. A meeting of scientists was scheduled for this morning‚ but the eruption seems to be less intense now.“The intensity of the volcanic eruption‚ which started about four hours ago‚ is decreasing. This is evident from seismic and GPS measurements. The fact that the activity is decreasing already is not an indication of how long the eruption will last‚ but rather that the eruption is reaching a state of equilibrium‚” said the Icelandic Met Office about 3 am local time on December 19. IFLScience is not responsible for content shared from external sites.Currently‚ the area is not accessible to the public unlike the previous three eruptions in the area‚ which quickly became tourist attractions. Still‚ the light of the eruption can be seen at a distance‚ even from the capital of Iceland‚ Reykjavik‚ 42 kilometers (26 miles) north of the eruption.While the eruption is intense‚ it doesn’t appear it will affect air travel like the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull back in 2010. Iceland's foreign minister‚ Bjarni Benediktsson‚ said on Twitter‚ that "there are no disruptions to flights to and from Iceland‚ and international flight corridors remain open."            IFLScience is not responsible for content shared from external sites.You can see the eruption live on many public webcams‚ which are streaming the eruption‚ such as this or this.

Something peculiar is going on a long way beneath our feet. The rotation of the Earth's inner core is not aligned with the rotation of the mantle‚ creating a wobble that affects the motion of the poles and even the length of the days that our planet experiences.The variations are small – so they are not to blame for how quickly the weekend goes away – but they create measurable effects. Effects that would be hard to explain without some misalignment and motion of the inner core.The inner core is the very center of our planet‚ a ball of mostly iron and nickel 2‚440 kilometers (1‚520 miles) across. Around it‚ there is the outer core made of molten liquid metal‚ 2‚260 kilometers (1‚400 miles) thick. The outer core is the main source of the planet’s magnetic field and sits beneath the thick mantle. The new work suggests that the rotation axis of the inner core is 0.17 degrees off compared to the rotation of the mantle. The team states that the value is much smaller than the previous assumption of 10 degrees used in some geodynamical models. Interestingly the tilt is currently pointing west‚ suggesting that the northwestern hemisphere of the inner core might be slightly more dense than the rest. The tilt between the mantle and the core is static; it is not changing over time. The polar motion and the length-of-day fluctuations were the key data that set the researchers on the hunt for the weird behavior between the core and the mantle. A day is roughly 24 hours‚ but there are small variations here and there depending on a variety of factors. The atmosphere‚ the tides‚ the motion of the continents‚ and the melting of glaciers are some of the effects that can generate variations. Since the late 1980s‚ researchers have suspected that a coupling between the inner core and the mantle could be responsible for a periodic variation on the order of 10 years. This study puts the wobble at 8.5 years‚ plus or minus 75 days. It was the discovery of a signal in the polar motion back in 2018‚ combined with the day-length fluctuations‚ that led the researchers to conclude that they were being caused by the same process‚ a small misalignment. The wobble and the misalignment also imply that the outer core and inner core do not just differ in state‚ one solid and one liquid; there is also a difference in density between the two. The study is published in Nature Communications. 

In a heartwarming tale of unexpected companionship‚ a Colorado football player’s routine hike transforms into a life-changing adventure. The story unfolds as the athlete named Jaylen stumbles upon two stray animals‚ setting the stage for an emotional journey that intertwines the lives of a man‚ a dog‚ and a kitten. The video begins with Jaylen... The post College football player goes for hike and finds abandoned dog and kitten begging for help appeared first on Animal Channel.

The ocean‚ vast and awe-inspiring‚ holds a sense of exhilaration and a tinge of fear‚ especially when you’re out there on a boat‚ surrounded by endless waves. It’s the fear of the unknown that grips you‚ as you ponder over the mysteries lurking beneath the surface. In the past‚ to quench the curiosity about these... The post Boat captain flies drone over ocean and soon spots thousands of animals in ‘rare event’ appeared first on Animal Channel.

Time magazine barely matters any more‚ but on Monday they did notice something other liberal outlets are aggressively ignoring: "What to Know About Washington’s Scandal Over Sex in a Senate Hearing Room." Singapore-based reporter Chad DeGuzman sent a not-so-subtle signal to readers (and the rest of the liberal media) that any curiosity about this film clip of a former aide to Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) naked in the Hart Senate Office Building should be dismissed as a sordid tale being promoted by "right-wing media." If you raise questions about Senate staffer Aidan Maese-Czeropski or who else was involved‚  you can be written off as some sort of right-wing kook. It only took until the second sentence of the Time story to catch the drift:  Capitol Hill was rocked over the weekend by the circulation of an explicit video of two men apparently having sex in a congressional hearing room. The eight-second pornographic clip‚ first posted Friday evening by right-wing media website the Daily Caller‚ was reportedly leaked from a private group chat for gay men in politics. The report‚ which did not name the participants and blurred a face that appeared in the video‚ claimed it was a congressional staffer in the sex tape and identified the setting as Room 216 in the Hart Senate Office Building. Just to make sure that you understand it is the political right that is reporting this story‚ the top of the paragraph immediately below reinforces that shtick. The Spectator‚ a conservative British magazine‚ reported hours earlier that an unnamed staffer for Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) had publicly shared a series of indecent photos and videos of himself engaging in sex acts in the “so-called hallowed Halls of Congress.” The description of one photo in particular bore resemblance to the video shared later by the Daily Caller. And in case you are still too clueless to understand Time's by now completely unsubtle message‚ well third time could be the charm in the paragraph immediately following. The news immediately gained traction in conservative media. While details remain scant‚ outlets including the New York Post and Washington Examiner identified the staffer as Aidan Maese-Czeropski‚ a legislative aide for Cardin. The magazine account noted Capitol Police are investigating‚ and that "Fox News analyst" Jonathan Turley  "speculated on his personal blog that potential criminal charges could include trespass‚ indecent exposure‚ or misuse of public property. In the meantime‚ the incident has elicited a range of mockery and outrage‚ especially among conservatives on social media." The Biden Justice Department has prosecuted grandmas who "entered a restricted building" and were "parading" in the Capitol on January 6. Time didn't wonder: Will these Democrats be treated more like fire-alarm stunt man Rep. Jamaal Bowman? Noting that this was filmed where Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) usually sits‚ DeGuzman added some Republican tweets‚ from just-removed George Santos and from Mike Collins:  Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) posted a photo of cleaning wipes at a grocery store‚ with the caption “Christmas shopping for Senator Klobuchar.” Message sent: Only Republicans think any of this is newsworthy.

Former Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall apparently does not like it when white people comment on football games. Mendenhall tried to play the victim on Monday after he received strong criticism for the following post on X: "I’m sick of average white guys commenting on football. Y’all not even good at football. Can we please replace the Pro Bowl with an All-Black vs. All-White bowl so these cats can stop trying to teach me who’s good at football. I’m better than ur goat." — (@) In response to the criticism of his first post‚ Mendenhall followed it up with a second post‚ writing: "Simply tired of being berated by people who arent experts in de game. We jus pretend like I’m the only athlete tired of fans talking trash? You dis upset over a single tweet. What about us? Like me or not‚ I’m a GREAT in football. This proves my point‚ u can’t speak on ball alone." — (@) Mendenhall's social media posts came with a flurry of criticism‚ with NFL fans jabbing at the former running back for fumbling the ball during the 2010 Super Bowl against the Green Bay Packers‚ which ultimately led to a Packers touchdown. Mendenhall was on the 2008 Steelers team that went on to win the Super Bowl‚ and his season was cut short due to injury‚ according to Fox News Digital.Despite all the backlash he received from his social media posts‚ Mendenhall decided to specifically target white people. Former Houston Texans star J.J. Watt joked that if there were an All-Black vs. All-White bowl‚ "we'd get cooked at corner‚ not gonna lie‚" adding that "nobody on our squad is covering Tyreek [Hill]."Mendenhall's comments about "average white guys" followed a previous post to X in which he mentioned Steelers coach Mike Tomlin's playoff record‚ which is less than stellar. Mendenhall wrote: "I don’t understand how you can talk about Tomlin’s playoff record‚ without acknowledging that Kenny Pickett has only played one year. Who was the QB for all those playoff loses?!! Literally all of them. Make up your minds. How you arbitrarily separate Mike &; Ben in de W/L column?"Mendenhall appears to have been referring to Ben Roethlisberger‚ who was the quarterback for the Steelers for 18 seasons. Mendenhall played for the Steelers from 2008 to 2012‚ then spent his final year with the Arizona Cardinals.Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors‚ sign up for our newsletters‚ and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

Ron DeSantis‚ arguably the closest thing to a consensus GOP candidate for president‚ seems to have hit his stride recently. A remarkably effective governor‚ DeSantis had never run a national campaign‚ so it’s perhaps not overly surprising that there was a bit of a learning curve at the beginning — especially since DeSantis focuses more on actually governing effectively than on simply talking about governing. But the Floridian has recently had a strong month-plus of campaigning‚ and he might be quietly positioning himself to make this a genuine two-horse race.You won’t hear this from mainstream reporters‚ who think that Donald Trump would be easier to beat and know that Nikki Haley would be more to their liking. Nor will you hear it from establishment Republicans‚ who see in Haley one of their own. And you won’t hear it from fervent Trump supporters‚ who know that DeSantis is the former president’s only real competition within his own party. Indeed‚ DeSantis has been targeted by all three of these groups throughout the campaign‚ but he now appears — for the first time — to have broken into the open field.Key endorsements and a lively debateIf this were a football game‚ the first block that helped spring DeSantis might have come on November 6. That day‚ Iowa’s popular governor‚ Kim Reynolds‚ who many thought would not endorse anyone in the Republican race‚ announced her support for DeSantis. “Ron is the most effective leader I have seen in a long‚ long time‚” Reynolds said. “He’ll be the best president we’ve seen in decades.” Former President Donald Trump‚ expressing his obvious frustration at failing to secure Reynolds’ endorsement for himself‚ responded‚ “It will be the end of her political career…. Two extremely disloyal people getting together… they can now remain loyal to each other because nobody else wants them!!!”Two days later‚ on November 8‚ DeSantis did well in the third Republican presidential debate‚ a debate in which Haley also had a strong showing. Following that‚ on November 21‚ DeSantis received the endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats‚ a key Iowa evangelical leader who‚ in the past three competitive Republican races in Iowa‚ has supported the eventual winner‚ each of whom was an underdog at some stage in the race. Trump somewhat mysteriously responded‚ “Vander Plaats‚ the former High School Accountant from Iowa‚ will do anything to win‚ something which he hasn’t done in many years.”Then‚ on November 30‚ DeSantis and California Governor Gavin Newsom engaged in a spirted debate that contrasted DeSantis’ Main Street-focused‚ “we’re open for business” approach to governance with Newsom’s fondness for authoritarian lockdowns and mandates. That debate helped highlight for voters that there are other options aside from a rematch between Trump and Joe Biden‚ who‚ as of December 13‚ have matching 40% approval ratings and 56% disapproval ratings in the RealClearPolitics average of recent polling. No wonder the Wall Street Journal’s Holman Jenkins writes that “Mr. Biden’s re-election strategy … requires Mr. Trump to be the GOP nominee.”Charges with meritTwo days later‚ on December 2‚ DeSantis completed his tour of all 99 Iowa counties. Then‚ on December 6 — exactly one month after he received the Reynolds endorsement — the Florida governor had what was widely perceived to be his best performance in a Republican debate thus far‚ as he landed blows against both Trump and Haley. DeSantis — a former college baseball player who says that Trump has “lost the zip on his fastball” — reminded Republican voters that even when Trump wasn’t approaching 80 and was still bringing the heat‚ “He didn’t … fire Dr. Fauci. He didn’t fire Christopher Wray. He didn’t clean up the swamp. … He said he was going to build the wall and have Mexico pay for it. We don’t have the wall.” DeSantis hit Haley‚ too‚ saying she’s someone who “caves any time the left comes after her‚ any time the media comes after her‚” who’s “not going to fight for the people back home.”At an Iowa town hall last week‚ DeSantis opened up a new line of attack‚ blaming Trump in part for the runaway inflation that is voters’ number-one concern‚ saying it isn’t just Biden who’s culpable: “Printing trillions and trillions of dollars was a huge mistake. That set the foundation for the inflation that we see.” The charge has merit. During 2020‚ Trump’s last full year as president‚ the federal government obliterated the all-time deficit record of $1.4 trillion‚ setting a new record of $3.1 trillion. For every $10 that came in‚ $19 went out.“He’s a different Donald Trump than in ’15 and ’16‚” DeSantis added. “Back then he was colorful‚ but it was really America first [and] about the policies. Now‚ a lot of it’s about him.”In short‚ it’s been a good month-plus for Trump’s principal challenger. Big swings still possibleThe polling hasn’t yet registered this — but polling can be a lagging indicator‚ and it has previously been off by wide margins at this stage of the contest (even when there wasn’t a former president in the race with sky-high name recognition). For example‚ on December 13‚ 2011‚ Newt Gingrich was beating Mitt Romney by 13 points in the RCP average of recent polling. Romney‚ of course‚ ultimately won. On that same day in 2007‚ Rudy Giuliani was beating John McCain by 10 points. Just 50 days later‚ Giuliani was out of the race‚ which McCain eventually won.Past Iowa contests have seen similar dramatic movement. On December 13‚ 2011‚ Rick Santorum — another strong pro-life candidate endorsed by Vander Plaats — was trailing Gingrich by 23 points and had barely a fifth as much support as the former House speaker in RCP’s average of Iowa polling (29% to 6%). Santorum eventually won Iowa and beat Gingrich by 11 points in the process — a swing of 34 percentage points in just three weeks.It seems clear that Republican voters will eventually choose either Trump or DeSantis — for while the GOP establishment doesn’t want to face it‚ voters are clearly not in an establishment mood. Haley — who in the last debate revealed just how out of touch she is by calling the libertarian organization Americans for Prosperity “the most conservative grassroots group in the country” — is essentially an establishment candidate‚ which means that she has no realistic hope of prevailing in this cycle.Polling bears this out. Shortly after the first GOP debate‚ the American Main Street Initiative — which I founded and run — commissioned Echelon Insights to ask this poll question: “Which person are you hoping will not win your party’s nomination for president?” The poll also asked the conventional question about which candidate each respondent supports.Among those with more than 1% support‚ only three Republican candidates had a higher percentage of GOP-leaning respondents rooting for them than were rooting against them: Trump‚ DeSantis‚ and Vivek Ramaswamy. Moreover‚ those three each enjoyed at least twice as much support as opposition (55% supported and 27% opposed Trump; 16% supported and 8% opposed DeSantis; and 13% supported and 4% opposed Ramaswamy). Meanwhile‚ the anti-Trump or establishment wings of the party got clobbered. Former Vice President Mike Pence (who has since left the race) had just 6% of respondents supporting him and 20% opposing him‚ while Chris Christie had just 4% supporting him and a whopping 35% opposing him. Haley represented the middle ground‚ with 4% support and 4% opposition. DeSantis is well positionedHaley’s support has risen since then‚ but so has the level of opposition to her. In the Des Moines Register’s polling‚ for example‚ Haley’s favorability rating is now up six percentage points since August‚ while her unfavorability rating is up five points.Here’s further evidence that Haley’s realistic best-case scenario is a second-place finish: The Des Moines Register’s October polling found that DeSantis supporters’ second choice is Trump‚ not Haley. But neither Trump’s nor Haley’s supporters like each other’s candidate second-best. They both prefer DeSantis‚ by wide margins. Under the old convention system‚ which was designed to reflect consensus by requiring that a candidate get majority support — and not just after everyone else had dropped out‚ like now — DeSantis likely would have prevailed. (Jay Cost and I have proposed a new system designed to promote such consensus and empower the GOP’s grassroots.)Today’s system doesn’t so easily produce a consensus candidate. Still‚ the popular Florida governor has been on a roll of late and may be poised for a rise in the polls — or for a huge upset win in Iowa. Such a win could potentially spark Republicans to coalesce around a candidate whom almost the whole party could get behind‚ thereby better positioning the GOP to beat the Democratic nominee. Only time will tell‚ obviously‚ but Ron DeSantis has quietly been positioning himself to make a real move in a race that could be more up for grabs than most people think.