Since 2011, my graduate Red Team class at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs has had a final exercise in which the students play an Iranian reaction to what actually just happened with Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear program. In the game, the students play the main Iranian government factions. They are deciding how to react to a Blue (American) proposal designed to contain the crisis before it becomes a major regional conflict. In the game the students play against Blue but also against each other to influence the Supreme Leader’s final decision regarding how to react to the American proposal. The only constant  in all games through 14 years is that no Iranian team ever seriously considered giving up the quest for nuclear weapons. Over the years, the final outcome has largely been determined by the relations between Tehran and whatever administration was in power in Washington. Every year, I have anticipated a need for a new scenario expecting that Israel would strike. This year, it finally happened. The student groups play the three power factions in Iran. These include the Guardian Council, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Executive Branch (which includes the office of the President and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs). A Supreme leader is selected from the class and tasked with making the final decision. This is what is called a Complex (multi-sided) Seminar War Game (or simulation). During the course of the semester the students study the motivations of their group in preparation for the game. Not surprisingly, the Guardian Council group is primarily interested in staying in power and protecting the hereditary land ownership that makes them the primary landlords and agricultural power in Iran. The IRGC has two primary interests. First, as they guys with the guns, they control the population and quell unrest. Second, this is a “for profit” organization which owns the nuclear program. They will resist any attempt to seriously control or curtail their attempt to get nuclear weapons. Finally, the Administration Team represents what passes as adult supervision in Iran. They are primarily interested in seeing that the crisis not escalate into a full borne regional war, but they are also the weakest faction. In the game, Iran has three primary political-military options: (1) Launch a major conventional missile/drone strike on Israel (2) close the Straits of Hormuz to U.S. and Western shipping (3) use surrogates to retaliate and punish Israel. In all cases, the American relief package contained the caveat that unlimited no-notice inspections would be part of the deal. Wargames — particularly academic ones — are not meant to be predictive, nor are they meant to validate any plan or concept. They do tend to identify issues that planners should be aware of. During the Obama and Biden years, the Iranian response tended to be more restrained. They understood that closing the straits would be a “go to war issue” with the Americans and generally sought to respond to Israel through surrogates such as the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas. They would usually agree to some form of IAEA inspections, but always vowed to subvert them. The only constant  in all games through 14 years is that no Iranian team ever seriously considered giving up the quest for nuclear weapons. That is a significant issue. This Year’s Game Not Like the Others The 2025 game was a significant departure from the norm. In the real world, the Israelis, supported by the Americans and regional Sunni actors were able to swat aside a massive 2024 Iranian ballistic missile attack, and their Hezbollah and Hamas allies were crippled by Israel. Despite this, the 2025 IRGC student players — without much opposition from the president  or Ministry of the interior — opted for a massive retaliatory attack on Israel with the potential of closing the Straits on the table. This was done in the full knowledge that Israelis would likely double-down in their attacks. War games are not meant to be predictive, but in this case, it was. The real world Iranians launched a massive retaliatory strike on Israel near-immediately which indicates preplanning. They knew they were going to get whacked. The student explanation was that they were taking the long term view of wearing the resolve of Israel and the West. Although they didn’t allude to it directly, they were attempting to outlast the Israelis and Americans down as the North Vietnamese did in the 60s and 70s of the last century. The wild card in all of this is that the GWU games did not postulate the decapitation strikes on the IRGC leadership and infrastructure that actually happened, nor did we have a civilian team to attempt to simulate a population response and we would not have had enough cultural data to even try. The question of whether the Iranian population will exhibit the loyalty and stoicism of the North Vietnamese or turn on their theocratic masters is the dog that has not yet barked in this situation. I picked a good year to decide to retire from teaching. I would have to have created a new scenario, and I hate it when that happens. READ MORE from Gary Anderson: Is Climate Change Destroying the Environment? It’s Time for Trump to Wield the Stick Against Putin Gary Anderson has lectured on Red Teaming and Alternative Analysis at GWU since 2003. The post The Most Dangerous War Game Finally Happened appeared first on The American Spectator | USA News and Politics.

This June 4th, the 36th anniversary of the crackdown on demonstrators in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, passed quietly in the People’s Republic of China. Of course, the atrocity could not be mentioned, let alone debated, in the PRC. The Chinese Communist Party long ago deposited the slaughter, in which at least hundreds and perhaps thousands died, in the national memory hole. Even now the regime tightens security on the massacre’s anniversary to prevent any embarrassing incidents. The U.S. should oppose Beijing’s attempt to extend its controls beyond its own borders. And build a coalition of states unwilling to allow the PRC to treat their lands like its own. The repression, which went far beyond protestors in Beijing, exposed a tragic what if, given the depth of support for political liberalization, if not full democratization, across the country. However, “paramount leader” Deng Xiaoping demonstrated his Maoist roots by inaugurating a far-reaching purge. Detailed Amnesty International: “Immediately after the military crackdown, the Chinese authorities began to hunt down those involved in the demonstrations. Thousands of people were detained, tortured, imprisoned or executed after unfair trials charged with ‘counter-revolutionary’ crimes.” Millions were also kicked out of the CCP for their heretical views. One of the victims was Zhao Ziyang, previously anointed party general secretary by Deng. Zhao opposed the deadly military operation; he was ousted and held under house arrest until his death in 2005. Of course, no one was held accountable for their crimes. Observed Yalkun Uluyol of Human Rights Watch: “The Chinese government has never owned up to the Tiananmen Massacre, much less provided redress for victims and their families. Beijing’s enforced amnesia has deepened authoritarian rule in China, yet it has not extinguished demands for the truth, democracy, and respect for human rights.” Today when questioned about Tiananmen Beijing calmly dismisses the “political turmoil” about which “the Chinese government has already reached a clear conclusion.” Behind the scenes, however, the PRC remains fearful of any disclosure and uses modern technology in an attempt to extirpate history. Reported Australia’s ABC News: More than 230 pages of censorship instructions prepared by Chinese social media platforms were shared by industry insiders with the ABC. They were intended to be circulated among multi-channel networks or MCNs — companies that manage the accounts of content creators across multiple social and video platforms like Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok. The files reveal deep anxiety among Chinese authorities about the spread of any reference to the most violently suppressed pro-democracy movement in the country’s history. Unfortunately, there was silence on June 4th in Hong Kong as well. The protestors who did not gather offer an unfortunate reminder that the once liberal city is no longer any different than any other Chinese metropolis. For years, despite Hong Kong’s official transfer to the People’s Republic of China, thousands of people turned out to mourn the murderous crackdown in Tiananmen Square and across the PRC. But no longer. In 2020 Beijing launched a ruthless campaign in the Special Administration Region, whose autonomy had been guaranteed for 50 years after the 1997 turnover. China imposed the “National Security Law,” or Article 23. Stanley Ng, a member of the rubber-stamp National People’s Congress which approved the legislation, explained that the NSL was ambiguous in order to provide the “real effects of intimidation and deterrence.” Today criticism of PRC rule, including the actions of such local factotums as Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu, can lead to prosecution and imprisonment. In this way, at least, Hong Kong has become largely indistinguishable from any mainland Chinese city. This June 4 the authorities succeeded in what should be known as Operation Memory Hole. Reported NPR: “Police said they brought 10 people on suspicion of breaching public peace to a police station for investigation. Three were still detained late Wednesday, while the rest were allowed to leave. Police also arrested a woman for failing to show her identity document and a man for obstructing police officers from performing their duties.” Mission accomplished! Of course, suppressing the memory of Tiananmen Square is but one aspect of the pervasive violation of human rights, which has earned China an abysmal 9 out of 100 on Freedom House’s rating of political and civil freedom. That’s a bit better than such bottom-feeders as Afghanistan and North Korea but remains very deep in “Not Free” territory. Repression has dramatically worsened during General Secretary and President Xi Jinping’s ascendancy. It still isn’t the horror of Mao’s China, and personal autonomy as well as income is much greater today. Nevertheless, in almost every way the Chinese people are less free today than a decade or so ago. Chinese Reach Into Other Countries Washington’s ability to influence events within any sovereign nation, and especially one like the PRC, is limited. However, of particular concern should be Beijing’s attempt to extend its reach to other countries, including the U.S. The British group Article 19 has published a disturbing report entitled “Going Global: China’s Transnational Repression of Protestors Worldwide.” According to Article 19: “As the CCP has cracked down on and censored discussion of protest at home, it has also escalated acts of [transnational repression], targeting diaspora communities and other protest movements seeking to raise awareness of human rights abuses in China or to commemorate high profile protest anniversaries — from the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre to the 2019 Pro-Democracy protests in Hong Kong to the 2022 White Paper Protests.” Thus, even those who have fled the PRC find themselves vulnerable to its security forces. While living in nominally free nations, “Protesters targeted by TNR frequently live in fear of surveillance; targeting; abduction and forced repatriation, especially around embassies and consulates; and ‘collective punishment’ retaliation against relatives still in China.” Responding to what amounts to violations of the sovereignty of the U.S. and other nations — something which Beijing vociferously rejects when criticized for its internal policies — should be a top priority for Washington. Economics and trade are important, but so is foreign interference with the freedom of America’s citizens and their guests, especially political refugees. The U.S. should work with not only Western friends which also value individual liberty, but also other nations which emphasize their own sovereignty. Even states otherwise friendly to the PRC might support the principle, since they aren’t likely to want Chinese agents active on their territory. For Sherlock Holmes the key to one case was the dog that didn’t bark. For us today evidence of China’s expanding repression is the Hong Kong demonstration that didn’t occur. Alas, Hong Kongers who enjoyed Western-style civil liberties as recently as five years ago are no longer free. The U.S. should oppose Beijing’s attempt to extend its controls beyond its own borders. And build a coalition of states unwilling to allow the PRC to treat their lands like its own. READ MORE from Doug Bandow: Are Democrats Surrendering the Demographic Battle? The Rule of Law Serves the American People, Especially Conservatives   The post Tiananmen Square Down the Chinese Memory Hole appeared first on The American Spectator | USA News and Politics.

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from The Mel K Show: TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/

by A Midwestern Doctor, Global Research: Natural light is an essential nutrient many of us lack within our bodies. When ultraviolet light is introduced into the bloodstream, remarkable health benefits emerge The dermatology industry created hysteria about benign sun-induced cancers while ignoring that deadly melanoma actually results from sunlight deficiency, not excess exposure Once ultraviolet […]

A North Carolina state representative faced extreme criticism and calls for her resignation after posting an image on social media depicting a beheaded President Trump. “No Kings Protest in Raleigh. Amazing turnout all across the Triangle today, including this event at the Capitol hosted by @wakedems and @ncdemocrats,” the now-deleted post from state Rep. Julie von Haefen read. Wow this is sick. North Carolina State Rep Julie von Haefen (D) posted a photo from the “no kings” protest which calls for Trump to be beheaded @FBI pic.twitter.com/ETn7O6e8cu — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) June 15, 2025 A closer look: “Yesterday, I posted a video on social media containing crowd photos from the No Kings protest in Raleigh. One of the images of a protestor holding a sign was inappropriate, and I later edited the video to remove the photo,” von Haefen said on Facebook. “Let me be clear: I condemn political violence in all forms. My focus remains on bringing people together and fighting for the values that matter to North Carolinians. Like so many, I was horrified by the violence in Minnesota. There is no place for that kind of extremism in our democracy, no matter the target, no matter the party,” she added. From The Center Square: Her actions Saturday morning is at odds with her midafternoon Sunday statement, as pointed out by many voters and other colleagues in the General Assembly. While the Facebook account associated with her campaign from last fall is active, her account on X does not exist anymore. “This is why reasonable people are leaving the Democrat Party in North Carolina,” said Rep. Erin Paré, a Wake County Republican. “This is a sitting state legislator who is publicly applauding the beheading of President Trump just hours after a state legislator in our country and her spouse were murdered in cold blood. Horrible.” The North Carolina Republican Party on Sunday morning said, “Political violence should be condemned, not encouraged.” Rep. Chris Humphrey, R-Lenoir, said, “Some people hate a duly elected leader, who won by landslide, more than they love America.” Midafternoon Sunday, first-term Democratic Gov. Josh Stein, Republican House Speaker Destin Hall of Caldwell County and Republican Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger had not commented publicly on von Hafen. “We are calling on the resignation of Wake Democrat Rep Julie von Haefen. There is no place for promoting political violence,” the Wake County Republican Party stated. We are calling on the resignation of Wake Democrat Rep Julie von Haefen. There is no place for promoting political violence. #ncpol pic.twitter.com/97Ualy8V1E — Wake GOP (@wakegop) June 15, 2025 Per North State Journal: House Speaker Destin Hall (R-Granite Falls) issued a statement on X. “On the same weekend that a gunman in Minnesota targeted state lawmakers in an act of political violence, and after two attempted assassinations of President Trump within the past year, Representative von Haefen (D-Wake) shared an image of a “protest sign” that glorifies violence against her political opponents-including President Donald Trump,” wrote Hall. “Her disgraceful behavior fails to meet the standards expected from House members and sets a dangerous precedent in an already volatile political climate,” Hall wrote. “I am examining next steps with our legislative attorneys to ensure this behavior does not continue.” Attempts to reach von Haefen for comment were unsuccessful. Around 3 p.m. on Sunday, von Haefen issued a statement on her official Facebook page, which addressed the deletion of the image as “inappropriate.”

Reports indicate Vance Boelter, the suspect sought in the shooting of two Minnesota state lawmakers and their spouses, has been taken into custody. “Law enforcement appears to have assassin suspect Vance Boelter in custody in a field in Sibley County. According to radio traffic, he was tracked into the woods. When a drone flew overhead he put his hands in the air and walked toward officers in a SWAT vehicle,” Alpha News investigative reporter Liz Collin said. “Multiple sources say he was spotted near a residence in Green Isle and began running down a driveway into the woods, wearing all black with a backpack. At one point he was tucked in the fetal position and then began to army crawl until he eventually stood up to surrender,” she added. MORE: Multiple sources say he was spotted near a residence in Green Isle and began running down a driveway into the woods, wearing all black with a backpack. At one point he was tucked in the fetal position and then began to army crawl until he eventually stood up to surrender. — Liz Collin (@lizcollin) June 16, 2025 Law enforcement also detained Boelter’s wife after a traffic stop, where authorities found a weapon, ammo, cash, and passports. WATCH: UPDATE: Minnesota ass*ssin Vance Boelter’s wife Jenny has been DETAINED after a traffic stop where authorities found a weapon, ammo, cash, and passports Jenny ALSO previously worked for Tim Walz. This story is getting weirder and weirder. pic.twitter.com/dECKaKPfNc — Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) June 15, 2025 Per KSTP: Authorities have captured 57-year-old Vance Boelter near his Green Isle home, several sources confirmed to 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS reporter Tom Hauser. He is believed to be responsible for fatally shooting Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband. He also shot Sen. John Hoffman and his wife. The Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension previously stated at a news conference that there was a nationwide warrant out for his arrest. Sunday saw law enforcement descend upon Sibley County, where a vehicle tied to Boelter was discovered. Details about what was found during law enforcement’s search of the area have not been made public as of this report. “Sources tell me the multi-agency task force including MN State Patrol arrested Boelter in the past 10 minutes. He’s been captured alive near Green Isle where a manhunt has been focused all day,” Hauser said. BREAKING: Sources tell me the multi-agency task force including MN State Patrol arrested Boelter in the past 10 minutes. He’s been captured alive near Green Isle where a manhunt has been focused all day. — Tom Hauser (@thauserkstp) June 16, 2025 CBS News reports: Minnesota Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark were shot and killed in their Brooklyn Park home while state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife Yvette were shot in their home in Champlin. The Hoffmans are out of surgery and receiving care. The manhunt for Boelter lasted over 24 hours, as authorities issued shelter-in-place orders for parts of the northwest metro. “I’m grateful that this nightmare has come to an end with the suspected murderer captured alive so he can be charged, prosecuted, and punished for the horror he has wrought on our state,” said Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Cold Spring) in a statement. “Thank you to the brave men and women of local, state, and federal law enforcement who have worked around the clock to ensure this evil man faces justice.” Officials said Brooklyn Park police arrived at Hortman’s home around 3:30 a.m. and found a car that looked like a police SUV with emergency lights on. Boelter then left the home and exchanged gunfire with police officers before fleeing. In a press conference, officials said he was last seen in Minneapolis, wearing a light-colored cowboy hat and a dark shirt with light pants. Officials said he should be considered “armed and dangerous.”

Sentinel already posted some of the information about the fighting between Israel and Iran today. The war is hot, hot, hot. They are now entering the fourth day of war. Iran has allegedly put pressure on intermediaries to get Israel to agree to a cease-fire. That’s not working out, so the Mullahs allegedly asked Russian […] The post Putin Warns Ayatollah: You’re in Danger & You’re Alone appeared first on www.independentsentinel.com.