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Tariffs Have Created the Monster We Feared
Imagine for a minute that you are in a heated argument with your next-door neighbor, fighting over property lines as you want to put in a new fence. To teach them that you mean business, you decide to slash their car’s tires. In response, they invite two of the toughest guys in the neighborhood — who also happen to dislike you but have largely left you alone — over for dinner, where they decide to form a “neighborhood watch.” You are no longer dealing with one annoyed neighbor; you’ve got a unified group that controls a large swath of the neighborhood and its streets, who wants nothing to do with you.
Now we’re uniting our enemies into a formidable economic trade bloc that could reshape global trade patterns for decades in a decidedly anti-American way.
This is exactly what America has done with its tariff policy against the rest of the world. Where I had previously warned that our tariffs were driving friends away, the latest developments show that now we’re uniting our enemies into a formidable economic trade bloc that could reshape global trade patterns for decades in a decidedly anti-American way. While Trump might want to put “America First,” it is becoming increasingly clear that the rest of the world is trying to put “America Last.” (RELATED: Trump and Modi Need The Art of the Deal)
Just last week, leaders from 20 different countries met in Tianjin, China, for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. There, Chinese President Xi said, “We must continue to take a clear stand against hegemonism and power politics, and practise true multilateralism.” Leaders of Russia, China, and India shared a moment on stage. Despite the tensions between their countries, the image was clear: these are three people actively trying to resolve their problems peacefully and to solidify a tripartite trade relationship. If these three countries are able to put aside their differences and come together, they will form one of, if not the single largest, economic bloc in the world. This will accomplish many things, none of which are good for America and our interests. (RELATED: Trump’s India Tariffs Crack Down on Real Russian Collusion )
Shifting Trade Patterns
First, trade patterns would most certainly shift. We will likely be less dependent on China. At first blush, this matches the goal of the Trump administration and members of the New Right. However, there are two ways to become less dependent on another country: one is by trading less with them and doing more yourself, and the other is by forming new trade partners and diversifying international trade patterns.
But are we doing more things ourselves? The evidence is starting to come in, and the only defensible answer is a resounding “no.” The latest BLS reports suggest that times are tough for manufacturing in the United States. While job openings continue to rise in manufacturing, this is almost entirely driven by the increased rate at which people are quitting their manufacturing jobs. (RELATED: Why Tariffs Won’t Fix America’s Work-Attachment Problem)
Lest we rely on statistics from the BLS, we can look at local newspapers to get a more granular picture of what’s going on. In Michigan alone, manufacturing plants are closing left, right, and center, and established firms, like Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, have incurred losses in the billions of dollars in just the first six months of 2025 alone — enough to hire another 88,000 workers. Even Alcoa, the aluminum-producing firm, is experiencing massive losses thanks to tariffs, and the US Steel situation was so dire that they had to be sold to Nippon Steel on the condition that President Trump receive a “golden share” of the company. (RELATED: Steelmanning Tariffs)
Tariffs as a Negotiating Tool
Second, our ability to use tariffs as a negotiating tactic in the future will wane even further than it already has. Against countries like Canada, Mexico, and Colombia, tariffs are likely to work in the short run. Their economies are much smaller than ours, and the United States is their dominant trade partner for both imports and exports. (RELATED: Trump’s Tariffs Send Italy Into Crisis)
But against larger economies and/or those that are less dependent on the U.S. for international trade, trade restrictions are much less likely to work. Take China, for example. With their diversified portfolio of both exporting and importing partners, even the staggering 145 percent tariffs that were imposed by the U.S. did little to China’s economy. Indeed, while their exports to us decreased during our trade war with them, their overall exports actually increased by 8.1 percent. (RELATED: US Tariffs: China in the Crosshairs)
The truth is that trade relationships are not static figures that do not change. They can and do change as economies grow, develop, and expand. And, as it turns out, they can change when other countries push for them to change, though not always in desirable ways. With the potential rise of a Russia-India-China economic bloc, other countries will have a new, large option should the United States continue the saber-rattling of tariffs. (RELATED: Some Clarification About Tariffs)
It has often been said that using tariffs as a negotiating tactic is like shooting yourself in the foot and hoping that some of the shrapnel hits the other person. When the other person is standing close to you, this is more likely to be true. But if they start to walk away, all that’s left is shooting yourself in the foot. We are seeing more and more countries develop the relationships necessary to walk further away from trade with the United States.
Economic Sanctions Have Less Effect
Third, our ability to use economic sanctions to impel other countries to find peaceful solutions to conflicts will be severely curtailed. Sanctions are already a weak method of resolving international tensions as they almost exclusively target the non-elites (who fight the wars) while leaving the elites (who have the power to declare and, importantly, end wars) almost completely unscathed. In fact, economic sanctions often galvanize the citizenry around their leaders, leading to longer, more fiercely fought wars.
But even if we set aside these empirical realities, a Russia-India-China economic bloc undermines our ability to use sanctions, including tariffs, to achieve our stated goals of promoting peace. When other countries are less dependent on the U.S. for international trade, or when they have other, viable options for trade, restricting their access to the American market might be annoying, but it is not painful.
Imagine for a minute that one gas station in town disapproves of something that you have done and refuses to serve you unless you apologize. If it’s the only gas station in town, this would be detrimental and might impel you to change your behavior and try to make amends. But if there are dozens of gas stations in town, you can freely choose to avoid the one that does not like you and instead purchase your fuel elsewhere.
This means that if we want to exert any influence on violent situations around the world that threaten our own security, we will have to increasingly rely on military campaigns. While drone warfare is more viable today than it was in the past, it has not replaced all American troops, meaning more American lives on the front lines around the world.
The reality is that tariffs have been an absolute disaster for America. They have pushed our friends away from us while simultaneously uniting our enemies. Even if the Supreme Court ultimately strikes down the president’s ability to use IEEPA to impose tariffs, the administration already has plans in place to use other laws to impose the tariffs just the same. Indeed, Peter Navarro himself said in May, immediately after the Court of International Trade’s ruling, that “this did not catch us by surprise” and that “you can assume that, even if we lose, we will do it another way.” Most recently, Scott Bessent floated the idea that they could resurrect Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 to accomplish the President’s tariff agenda. (RELATED: No, Tariffs Did Not Win the Civil War)
If we truly want to put “America First,” we need to be open to trade from other countries seeking to put America First in their trade efforts. Doing so not only gives us more access to their markets for exports but also opens our borders to critical materials that we use in our own manufacturing sector. Getting more of these materials, not less, into the hands of the most productive manufacturing workers in the world is a recipe for success, security, and prosperity. Tariffs are not doing this, and their overall effect on us worsens by the day. It’s time to scrap the tariff plan and get back to what we know works and what President Trump has promised: lowering taxes and deregulation.
READ MORE from David Hebert:
No, Tariffs Did Not Win the Civil War
Trump’s Underwhelming UK Trade Deal
The ‘Most Bad’ Option: Trump’s Tariff Uncertainties
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