In the summer of 1988, Democrat presidential candidate Michael Dukakis held a 17-point lead over Republican George H.W. Bush, according to a Gallup poll. By the November election, however, it was a different story. Vice President Bush had erased Dukakis’ double-digit advantage, winning by 8 percentage points nationally and capturing 41 states. Renowned historian Victor Davis Hanson believes there’s an important lesson for former President Donald Trump from the 1988 campaign—one that will make the difference between winning a second term or losing to Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Like Harris today, Dukakis was undefined in the minds of many Americans. Bush’s campaign manager, Lee Atwater, systematically set out to change how voters viewed the liberal Massachusetts governor. Through a series of famous political ads and negative stories about Dukakis, Americans started to sour on the Democrat. In an interview with The Daily Signal, Hanson revealed how it happened: [Dukakis] kept saying, “I’m not ideological. I’m not a liberal. I’m a competent governor. It’s about competence. It’s about technocracy. I engineered the Massachusetts miracle. This is not about George Bush, the conservative, or me, the Massachusetts liberal.” Then Atwater stepped up and said, “Yes, it is. Here’s the Willie Horton ad. Here’s the tank ad. Here’s the Boston Harbor ad. And when I get done,” Atwater said, “I’m going to take the bark off you.” The reason I’m mentioning this is Dukakis on Aug. 1 was 17 points ahead in the polls. And when they got done with him, he lost almost by 8 points. It’s the same time frame that Trump has to work in. Atwater’s decision was controversial at the time—and continued to reverberate in Republican campaigns in the future. Hanson explained: Lee Atwater sort of hijacked the … elder Bush aristocratic campaign. And once he was successful—if you remember, he died shortly of a brain tumor—he was asked to apologize to Dukakis. Everybody said, “We’re never going to do that again.” Basically, the Republican establishment said, at the national level … “We would rather lose nobly than win ugly.” And they never did quite that again, against [Barack] Obama or Bill Clinton, and the result is, they’ve lost seven out of the last eight popular votes, and they’ve never won 51% since. Hanson’s advice for Trump: “Show everybody who [Harris] is and why she won’t run on her record and why she won’t tell us that she’s still proud of being a radical.” Importantly, he noted, Trump should avoid ad hominem attacks, insults about Harris’ identity, and her sordid affair with former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown. Given the condensed window of the presidential race, there’s simply no time to waste, Hanson said. That makes defining Harris’ radical policy positions of paramount importance for Trump. “If he does that, he will win in the way that Bush did,” Hanson said. “If he doesn’t, he will lose.” The post ‘IF HE WANTS TO WIN…’ Victor Davis Hanson’s Advice for Trump appeared first on The Daily Signal.

The Hard Saying, the Hard Road: Sunday Reflection

A recent study has cast doubt on the claims made by astrologers regarding the influence of celestial bodies on people’s lives. In an experiment involving 152 astrologers, it was revealed that even the most experienced among them could not accurately determine individuals’ zodiac signs. Researchers discovered that astrologers who identified as “world-class experts” correctly guessed an average of only 2.2 out of the 12 zodiac signs. This level of accuracy is no better than what would be expected from random guessing. The authors of the study explained, “If astrologers as a group could do better, this study design would support the conclusion that astrology works. But as it turns out, the astrologers in the study performed in a manner that was statistically indistinguishable from random guessing.” The research team also analyzed how astrologers from various schools—such as Chinese, Western, Mayan, and Renaissance astrology—approach their work. They found that Hellenistic astrologers had the highest accuracy, correctly guessing an average of 2.9 out of 12 signs, but this still aligned statistically with random predictions. The researchers further investigated whether astrologers at least agreed on their incorrect assessments, wondering if they consistently chose the same wrong answers. The findings revealed minimal consensus among astrologers interpreting the same charts, regardless of their level of experience. The percentage of agreement among astrologers ranged from approximately 21% to 28%. Published in Clearer Thinking, the study challenges the assertion that astrology possesses a scientific basis. As noted by the authors, “An individual study can only provide compelling evidence related to a claim, but not definitive evidence.” Nevertheless, all evidence gathered so far, including larger studies, points to the inconsistency of astrologers’ claims. So, if you believe in astrology, it may be time to reconsider your beliefs. And if you consider yourself an astrologer, perhaps it’s time to evaluate the effectiveness of your methods. The post New Study Questions the Reliability of Astrology Predictions appeared first on Anomalien.com.

Virginia Eliza Clemm was just 13 years old when she married 27-year-old Edgar Allan Poe — who was also her first cousin. The post Inside The Heartbreaking Life And Death Of Virginia Eliza Clemm Poe, Edgar Allan Poe’s Child Bride appeared first on All That's Interesting.

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