[View Article at Source]Both nations want nukes—and continued American protection. The post Will Poland and Turkey Become Nuclear Snares for the U.S.? appeared first on The American Conservative.

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[View Article at Source]An edited audio recording implicates his sister, Karina Milei, in a bribery operation. The post The Corruption Scandal Casting Long Shadows Over Javier Milei appeared first on…

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Foreign Affairs Will Poland and Turkey Become Nuclear Snares for the U.S.? Both nations want nukes—and continued American protection. George Washington and America’s other Founders repeatedly expressed an aversion to “entangling alliances” that could snare their country in unnecessary and unwise conflicts. Unfortunately, recent generations of U.S. political and policy elites have thoroughly abandoned that wisdom.  Nowhere is the corrosive change more evident than with respect to Washington DC’s multi-decade love affair with NATO—an alliance that officially links America’s security to a growing roster of allies (or more accurately, security dependents). Such an entanglement was bad enough at NATO’s founding in 1949 with 12 members—all stable countries in Western Europe and North America. That number has now grown to 32 countries, mostly in volatile Central and Eastern Europe, and a fierce lobbying effort is underway to increase America’s already worrisome risk exposure by bringing corrupt, autocratic, and irresponsible Ukraine into the fold. Worse, at least two alliance members, Poland and Turkey, are exhibiting ambitions to join the ranks of nuclear weapons powers. Until now, the United States, Britain, and France were the only NATO members to have that enormously destructive capability. Warsaw and Ankara joining the list would significantly boost America’s risk exposure. Even though both countries signed on to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) years ago, their commitment to a non-nuclear status is wavering. Moreover, both Turkey and Poland have shown a willingness to pursue uncompromising, even provocative, policies toward potential rivals. Their conduct could trigger or expand military crises and drag the United States into those conflicts.  There is significant, growing sentiment in Poland that the country must gain “access” to nuclear weapons to adequately provide for its own defense against a looming Russia. It is not yet clear what such “access” means in operational terms. Polish leaders may be talking about something akin to French President Emmanuel Macron’s comment in March 2025 that he would consider extending the protection of his country’s nuclear deterrent to France’s nonnuclear NATO partners in Central and Eastern Europe. Or, Polish leaders might instead have in mind authorizing the United States (or possibly France or Britain) to deploy nuclear weapons in Poland.  Warsaw may want to control such weapons regardless of which nuclear NATO ally retains official ownership. In mid-March 2025, President Andrzej Duda reportedly urged the Trump administration to move some U.S. nuclear forces to his country. The ultra-hawkish Foundation for the Defense of Democracies considers that move a splendid idea, indicating that the policy has friends among America’s foreign policy establishment. While details regarding the nature and extent of Warsaw’s proposal remain obscure, there is no longer any doubt that Poland wants a nuclear weapons capability in some form. During a speech to parliament in March 2025, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country must drastically increase the size of its military and even “reach for opportunities related to nuclear weapons.” That desire is more than a little dangerous. Poland has been among the most militant of NATO’s European members in backing Ukraine’s war against Russia. The Polish government has given financial support and transferred sophisticated U.S. weaponry to Kiev. Polish officials have also consistently prodded Ukraine’s government to adopt an uncompromising stance regarding territorial concessions and NATO membership, further reducing the prospects of a negotiated peace accord with Moscow. In addition, Poland is building up its own military forces next to Kaliningrad, Russia’s isolated enclave on the Baltic coast. Such behavior is provocative and could cause NATO’s already dangerous proxy war against Russia to spiral out of control. Poland with nuclear capabilities would potentially be even more assertive and risk-tolerant. A similar dynamic is in play with respect to another rising NATO member: Turkey. In early July 2025, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan criticized the NPT. “When I first read the text of the NPT,” Fidan said, “I asked myself: How did those who signed this ever agree to it? It’s essentially a document where non-nuclear states accept in perpetuity the military superiority of nuclear-armed nations.” His remarks came at a time of increasing tensions over nuclear issues and the formation of a new regional balance of power. Those developments are affecting Turkish public opinion, making it decidedly more receptive to the idea of having their country rescind its adherence to the NPT and barge into the global nuclear weapons club. A survey conducted by Research Istanbul in early July 2025 found an outright majority of respondents favored that course of action. Israel’s air strikes on Iran clearly spooked the public—and that was before the United States launched its own, more devastating attacks on Iran, confirming beyond doubt America’s support for Israeli ambitions in the region. The changing mood in Turkey should create considerable uneasiness. Ankara is displaying its own bold ambitions on multiple fronts. It is working closely with the new Islamist government in Damascus to eradicate the last remaining self-governing Kurdish enclaves in northeast Syria along the Turkish-Syrian border. Ankara’s military assertiveness has spiked to the point of generating tense aerial confrontations with Israeli planes operating in Syrian airspace. Turkey’s ongoing effort to play an outsized diplomatic and economic role in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia also indicates surging great power ambitions. Although Ankara has yet to express explicit intentions to build a nuclear arsenal, it is indicating interest in that option, and the country certainly has the necessary technological capabilities. Crossing the line against acquiring nuclear weapons may be seen as the final phase before Turkey fully joins the ranks of the world’s great powers. Without Washington’s NATO entanglement, U.S. leaders could view such developments dispassionately. Possessing a nuclear arsenal as an independent deterrent might be a more prudent alternative for both Poland and Turkey than continuing to rely on Washington’s promise of extended deterrence—which has always had some aroma of being a bluff. However, Ankara and Warsaw appear to want to have it both ways: a national nuclear weapons capability while still being able to rely on the United States for extended deterrence if their own capabilities proved insufficient.   That scenario would be a very bad deal for the United States, bringing expanded risk with no additional benefit. We would have less control regarding the nuclear option, as two more incautious powers would control apocalyptic weaponry. At the same time, the thankless extended deterrence commitment would remain undiluted. This situation threatens to become the final, potentially fatal consequence of America’s NATO entanglement.  The post Will Poland and Turkey Become Nuclear Snares for the U.S.? appeared first on The American Conservative.

Latin America The Corruption Scandal Casting Long Shadows Over Javier Milei An edited audio recording implicates his sister, Karina Milei, in a bribery operation. Corruption. Nepotism. Bribery. Cronyism. These are the accusations that Javier Milei hurled at la casta, the Argentine political class, during his meteoric rise to the presidency. Now, Argentina’s eccentric economist-in-chief is facing the same allegations turned against his own political movement. Audio recordings purporting to detail a kickback scandal conducted through Argentina’s disability benefits agency were released to the public late last month—a development that could derail the president’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party during critical legislative elections in October. One recording contains what appears to be the voice of Diego Spagnuolo, a personal friend of Milei and at the time head of Argentina’s National Disability Agency (ANDIS), recounting a scheme in which the medical supply company Suizo Argentina would mark up prices on its contracts and pay the difference to various employees in the Argentine government, including (per the recording) Javier Milei’s sister and general secretary of the president’s office, Karina Milei. The recording also has Spagnuolo complaining that he had told the president about the kickback scheme and received no instructions to stop it, although he also asserts that the president was not personally involved. The release of the recordings has thrown Argentine politics into complete chaos. Spagnuolo refused to resign from his position as director of ANDIS, so Milei fired him shortly after the recordings were released. The Argentine courts have stirred to action, seizing Spagnuolo’s phone as evidence and beginning investigations of the Kovalivker family, who run Suizo Argentino and are allegedly responsible for the bribery scheme. Milei’s motorcade was attacked by protesters hurling rocks and insults at an August 27 campaign rally in Buenos Aires, forcing security to evacuate the president as the event dissolved into a violent clash between libertarians and demonstrators. No material evidence has yet surfaced for the allegations of corruption contained in the recordings.Yet some of the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable for supporters of the administration. Karina Milei has already fallen under suspicion of using her brother’s political position to enrich herself during the $LIBRA crypto scandal earlier this year, making her particularly vulnerable to such accusations. Additionally, Suizo Argentino’s contracts with the Argentine government expanded massively, from about AR$4 million to over AR$100 million—growth that critics of Milei are now attributing to bribery, corruption, and favoritism. But the audio recordings that catalyzed the scandal are not without their own irregularities. As they have been carefully edited to contain only the remarks of Spagnuolo, where and in what context they were recorded remains entirely unknown. Jorge Rial and Mauro Federico, the journalists who secured the recordings and released them on streaming channel Carnaval, have declined to indicate so much as when the recordings were made, only saying that they could be as much as a year old. The provenance of the recordings is also a mystery, leaving open the possibility that the recordings were deceptively edited, fabricated, or even created by Spagnuolo himself. There is little doubt that their release was timed to throw the libertarians into chaos just before the important provincial elections in Buenos Aires, which are widely viewed as a referendum on Milei’s administration. The administration has responded by denying all of the allegations of bribery and asserting that the recordings are part of an operation by their Kirchnerist political opponents to derail the libertarians during upcoming elections. “It’s no coincidence that this type of ploy appears just two weeks before the elections in the province of Buenos Aires,” wrote Eduardo “Lule” Menem, who was accused in the recordings of being a recipient of Suizo Argentino’s bribes. “I never had any intervention of any kind with the contracts of ANDIS.” “Everything [Spagnuolo] said is a lie,” Milei told reporters. “We are going to bring him to court and we are going to prove that he lied.”  Spagnuolo himself remains a wildcard in the whole affair. A lawyer by trade, Spagnuolo attracted Milei’s attention early in the president’s political career because of his vociferous social media account. According to a report by La Nación’s Hugo Alconada Mon, once they were introduced, they quickly became fast friends—“they lunched together, they travelled together, they dined together”—and Spagnuolo served as one of Milei’s lawyers in a number of lawsuits. Spagnuolo was one of the founding members of LLA, and the president repaid his affection by attempting to promote Spagnuolo’s political career alongside his own—with very dubious results. Milei attempted to sponsor Spagnuolo with over half a dozen prominent Argentine politicians; even relationships that began on a promising note flamed out. Would-be mentors spoke of his emotional fragility and difficulty handling stress. After promises that Spagnuolo would serve as one of LLA’s deputies and as the general secretary of the House of Deputies fell through, Spagnuolo ended up at the head of ANDIS, a position for which he apparently has few qualifications. He remained close with Milei personally, visiting the president’s office and residence scores of times in 2024. But he seems to have grown deeply disillusioned with the rest of the libertarian administration. After the release of the bombshell recording, a number of other recordings of Spagnuolo surfaced—these contain no accusations of criminal behavior, only a long tirade of bitter insults at various figures within the government. Whether Spaguolo’s accusations be true or false, a matter which may not be clear for many months, his disaffection has come at a steep price and a desperate time for Milei and the libertarians. The scandal strikes at the heart of Milei’s popular appeal: an end to la casta, Argentina’s corrupt political class that never feels the pinch of the economic distress they impose on the people. The impact is already being felt in the polls, where LLA has gone from the clear favorites over the Kirchnerist Peronists to competing on nearly equal footing. The scandal has also given the opposition parties, who hold a clear majority in the legislature, a rallying point. On Thursday, the Argentine Congress took an ax to Milei’s project of fiscal discipline and overturned the president’s veto on a law that secured funding for disability pensions, the first time Congress has overturned a presidential veto in over 20 years—and a clear symbolic attack on the scandal rocking the national disability agency. More ominous for the president, the Senate approved a revision that would significantly curtail the presidential power to issue Decrees of Necessity and Urgency (DNU), instruments that allow the president to make, revise, or modify certain laws without the passage of legislation. Milei has made extensive use of DNUs during his time in government—a necessity given that LLA and its allies hold only a tiny minority in both houses of Congress. The scandal threatens to turn the midterm elections, which Milei’s supporters believed would serve as a vindication of his record, into a rout.  “I believe we’re seeing a very significant political operation against the government,” Fernando Pedrosa, a professor of political science at the University of Buenos Aires, told The American Conservative. “The entire political system seems to be involved in ensuring Milei loses the elections, both the ones happening in just a few days in the province of Buenos Aires and the ones in October. “I’d even say there’s a sector that doesn’t want him to finish the year as president.” The post The Corruption Scandal Casting Long Shadows Over Javier Milei appeared first on The American Conservative.