Today, when most people think of Afghanistan, they recall the Biden administration’s calamitous withdrawal in the summer of 2021 and the end of what many have termed a ‘forever war.’ Tragically, the Taliban’s victory reversed two decades of effort to establish liberal institutions and women’s rights in the war-ravaged country. Many commentators have compared America’s retreat from Afghanistan to the country’s hasty evacuation of Vietnam in 1975. Indeed, there are similarities in the chaotic nature of the two withdrawals and the resulting tragic effects for the people of Afghanistan and Vietnam, respectively.Brian Morra looks at the lessons the Biden Administration could have taken from earlier Soviet and American wars in Afghanistan. Soviet troops atop a tank in Kabul in 1986. Regarding Afghanistan, Americans are less likely to remember the Soviet Union’s war there and Moscow’s own rather ignominious pull out. This is unfortunate because there are lessons to be learned from the USSR’s ill-fated foray into Afghanistan that US policymakers ought to have heeded during our own twenty-year war. My latest historical novel, The Righteous Arrows (Amazon US | Amazon UK), published by Koehler Books, devotes a good deal of ink to the missteps made by Washington and Moscow in that long-ago war. My intention with The Righteous Arrows is to entertain while providing the reader with a sense of what should have been learned from the Soviets’ failed adventure in Afghanistan. What was Moscow’s war in Afghanistan all about? Like many wars, it began with what seemed to be good intentions. The Kremlin leaders who made the decision to go to war thought that it would not really be a war at all but a ‘police action’ or a ‘special military operation’ if you like. The Kremlin leadership expected their engagement in Afghanistan to be sharp and quick. Instead, it turned into a decade-long, bloody slog that contributed to the later implosion of the USSR itself. Talk about unintended consequences! How did the Soviet foray into Afghanistan start?It began over the Christmas season in 1979 when the Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev was convinced to come to the aid of a weak, pro-Russian socialist regime in Kabul. The initial operation was led by the KGB with support from the GRU (Soviet Military Intelligence) and Army Airborne units. After initial success, the Kremlin quickly became embroiled in a war with tribal militias who did not like either the socialist puppet regime that Moscow was propping up or the Soviet occupation. What was supposed to be a quick operation became a ferocious guerrilla war that lasted most of the 1980s and killed some 16,000 Soviet troops. The war sapped the strength of the Soviet armed forces and exposed to anyone who was paying attention just how weak the USSR had become. By 1986, the reformist Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev had decided to get out of the bloody quagmire in Afghanistan. He found it was not that easy to leave and the last Russian forces did not depart Afghanistan until February 1989.  United States’ involvementBeginning with the Jimmy Carter administration, the United States provided arms to the Afghan Islamic rebels fighting the Soviets. Military support from the US grew exponentially under President Ronald Reagan and by 1986 Washington was arming the Mujaheddin with advanced weapons, including the Stinger surface-to-air missiles that decimated Soviet airpower. America’s weapons turned the tide against the Soviet occupiers, but Washington also rolled the dice by arming Islamic rebels that it could not control.Not only did the Afghan Islamic fighters become radicalized, but they were also joined by idealistic jihadis from all over the world. The Soviets’ ten-year occupation of Afghanistan became a magnet for recruiting jihadis, as did NATO’s two-decades long occupation some years later. The founder of al Qaeda, Usama bin Laden, brought together and funded Arab fighters in Afghanistan, ostensibly to fight the Russians, but mainly to build his own power base. Although Washington never armed bin Laden’s fighters, he used his presence in Afghanistan during the Soviet war and occupation as a propaganda bonanza. He trumpeted the military prowess of al Qaeda, which was largely a myth of bin Laden’s own creation, and claimed that he brought down the Soviet bear. His propaganda machine claimed that if al Qaeda could defeat one superpower (the USSR), then it also could beat the other one (the USA).During the 1980s, Washington officials downplayed the danger of arming radical Islamic fighters. It was far more important for the White House to bring down the Soviet Union than to worry about a handful of Mujaheddin. One must admit that the Americans’ proxy war against the USSR in Afghanistan was the most successful one it conducted during the entire Cold War. On the other hand, Washington opened a virtual Pandora’s box of militarized jihadism and has been dealing with the consequences ever since.  The aftermathThe Soviet occupation encouraged most of Afghanistan’s middle class to flee the country, leaving an increasingly radicalized and militarized society in its wake. This was the Afghanistan the United States invaded in the fall of 2001, shortly after bin Laden’s 9/11 attacks on Wall Street and the Pentagon. Policymakers in Washington failed to grasp just how radically Afghan society had changed because of the Soviet occupation.There was discussion in Washington’s national security circles in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, warning of the dangers of fighting in Afghanistan. Bromides were offered, calling the country the ‘graveyard of empires’, but none of it had much impact on policy. Most officials in the George W. Bush administration did not understand how radicalized Afghan society had become and how severe the costs of fighting a counter-insurgency operation in Afghanistan might turn out to be.The CIA-led operation to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s with small numbers of Americans was the game plan Washington also used in the fall of 2001 to defeat al Qaeda and bring down the ruling Taliban regime. The playbook worked brilliantly in both cases. Unfortunately, for the United States and our NATO allies, the initial defeat of the Taliban did not make for a lasting victory or an enduring peace.For twenty years, the United States fought two different wars in Afghanistan. One was a counter-terror war, the fight to defeat al Qaeda and its affiliates and to prevent them from reconstituting. The other war was a counterinsurgency against the Taliban and their allies. The reason the United States and NATO went into Afghanistan was to prosecute the first war – the anti-terror war. We fell into a counterinsurgency conflict as the Taliban reconstituted with help from Pakistan and others. This was a classic case of ‘mission creep’ and it required large combat forces to be deployed, in contrast to the light footprint of the counter-terror operation. The first war – the counter-terror war – prevented another 9/11 style major attack on the United States, while the second one required the US and NATO to deploy massive force and – ultimately – depended on the soundness of the Afghan government we supported.The sad fact is that the successful campaign against the Taliban and the routing of al Qaeda in 2001 and 2002 led to an unfocused twenty-year war that ended with the Taliban back in charge and a humiliated United States leaving hundreds of thousands of vulnerable Afghan allies behind. In sworn Congressional testimony, General Milley, who in 2021 was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and General Mackenzie, who was Commander of Central Command, have stated that they forcefully advised President Biden to leave a small footprint of US forces and contractors in Afghanistan to prosecute the counter-terror war. Our NATO allies were willing to stay and in fact increased their forces in Afghanistan shortly after Biden was inaugurated. Not only did President Biden not heed his military advisors, but he also later denied that they ever counseled him to keep a small force in Afghanistan. Some have described Biden’s decision to pull out of Afghanistan as ‘pulling defeat from the jaws of victory’.President Biden further asserted that, by withdrawing, he was merely honoring the agreement President Trump had made earlier with the Taliban. This claim does not stand up to objective scrutiny because the Taliban repeatedly violated the terms of the Trump agreement, which gave the White House ample opportunity to declare it null and void. What are the lessons the United States should have learned from the Soviet and American wars in Afghanistan?Keep your war aims limited and crystal clear.Fight mission creep and do not allow it to warp the original war aims or plans for a light footprint of forces.Beware of the law of unintended consequences. Consider the downside risks of arming the enemy of one’s enemy.Be willing to invest for the long-term or do not get involved. The United States still has forces in Germany, Italy, and Japan nearly eighty years after the end of World War II. Some victories are worth protecting.Ensure that the Washington tendency toward ‘group think’ does not hijack critical thinking. Senior policymakers must think and act strategically, so that ‘hope’ does not become the plan. Footnote on UkraineI will close with a footnote about the Russian war in Ukraine. The Soviet war in Afghanistan has dire similarities with Russia’s ‘special military operation’ underway today in Ukraine. In Afghanistan, Soviet forces killed indiscriminately and almost certainly committed numerous war crimes. The war also militarized Afghan society – a condition that persists to this day, and one that had a profound impact on America’s war in Afghanistan. In Ukraine, Russia’s invasion has been characterized by war crimes, mass emigration, and the militarization of Ukrainian society.  Much as in Iraq and Afghanistan, senior US policy in Ukraine is failing to identify clear strategic outcomes. It is the role of our most senior policy officials to focus on strategic outcomes and an exit strategy (if one is warranted) beforecommitting American forces or treasure to foreign wars. Too often, platitudes have masqueraded as strategy. When one thinks of great wartime presidents like Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt, the trait they shared was a singular focus on strategic outcomes and on how to shape the post-war environment. The Soviets failed to do so in their war in Afghanistan. The US also fell short in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, the banalities that pass for foreign policy strategy we hear in Washington today indicate that we have not learned from the past.  Brian J. Morra is the author of two historical novels: “The Able Archers” (Amazon US | Amazon UK) and the recently-published “The Righteous Arrows” (Amazon US | Amazon UK).  More about Brian:Brian a former U.S. intelligence officer and a retired senior aerospace executive. He helped lead the American intelligence team in Japan that uncovered the true story behind the Soviet Union's shootdown of Korean Airlines flight 007 in September 1983. He also served on the Air Staff at the Pentagon while on active duty. As an aerospace executive he worked on many important national security programs. Morra earned a BA from William and Mary, an MPA from the University of Oklahoma, an MA in National Security Studies from Georgetown University, and completed the Advanced Management Program at Harvard Business School. He has provided commentary for CBS, Netflix and the BBC. Learn more at: www.brianjmorra.com

Vice President Kamala Harris pledged America's unwavering support for Ukraine and announced more than $1.5 billion in aid for the country's energy sector and its humanitarian situation as a result of Russia's 27-month invasion.

Lara Trump told a crowd in Michigan on Friday the Republican National Committee (RNC) will go after anyone who cheats in an election.

The Biden administration is poised to unveil one of the largest immigration relief initiatives in recent history, granting legal status to long-term illegal immigrants, CBS News reported.

BARI, ITALY — The heads of state gathered in Italy for the G7 summit have decided to go ahead and officially change the name to "G6" after President Biden wandered off again.

If you live your life in a state of readiness, chances are pretty good that you’re like most preppers and are getting ready for what I call big-ticket events: I’m talking about things like natural disasters, man-made catastrophes, riots, societal collapse, and things like that. flag of Florida It’s definitely good to be ready for these things, and to have a plan, but sometimes you can miss the forest for the trees. You’re statistically far, far more likely to be victimized by everyday crime. A mugging, a robbery, a home invasion, carjacking, and so forth. Staying far away from areas with high crime, and especially crimes of violence, is one of the smartest things you can do to keep you and your family safe. If you live or want to move to Florida, you’re in luck, because I’ll be telling you about 10 of the safest places to stay in the state. A Note on the Metrics We’ll get right to the safe places, but before we do I want to say something about the statistics I used to generate this list. I didn’t look at raw crime numbers; not only is everything a crime these days, but I’m not that worried about victimless crimes or things like shoplifting and petty theft or unpaid parking tickets. Sure, that stuff’s not good, but it’s also not going to directly impact your life and safety. Instead, I combed federal and state statistics for violent crimes like the aforementioned burglary, robbery, assault, murder, arson, home invasion, and so forth. Really bad criminals doing bad things to innocent people, in other words. If I included all crimes, this list might be different, but I wouldn’t hesitate to live in any of these places, and neither should you. Now, let’s check out the list. Towns and Cities Parkland Located in Southeastern Florida, smack in the middle of Broward County, right next door to Coral Springs, and just a short hop from Fort Lauderdale, Parkland is, just as the name suggests, a tropical, pastoral town that is full of parks and recreational facilities. Although the population is fairly modest at just 35,000 or so, it is a wealthy, affluent area with a small but highly efficient police force. There’s only one violent crime committed, statistically, for every 4,000 residents yearly, meaning you won’t have very much to worry about at all. If you can afford to live there and have a family, this is one of the best towns in Florida, especially if you want to enjoy a quiet lifestyle. Cooper City Another town near Fort Lauderdale, unfortunately one of the more dangerous cities in Florida, Cooper City is often thought of as a bedroom community for that larger city. Like Parkland, it is a smaller town with right around 37,000 residents, and there’s only one violent crime committed for every 1,500 people. Cooper City also has an effective and highly modern police force, and the Broward County Sheriff’s Department happens to be the largest in the entire state, meaning you won’t have to worry about any crimes spilling out of Fort Lauderdale and affecting you here. Despite its small size, Cooper City is beautiful and has many lush parks and tree-lined streets full of shops, small businesses, and nice dining establishments. Excellent schools are another incentive for families. Kissimmee Located smack in the middle of Central Florida, Kissimmee is often thought of as a suburb of Orlando, and that’s definitely one way to think of it… It is indeed part of the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro area, and as you might imagine, the emphasis is on Disney magic, theme parks, shopping, resorts, and more. But compared to its larger neighboring city, Kissimmee is more diverse with a mix of a built-up city center and sprawling suburbs. Considering how densely populated the region is, it is surprisingly free of violent crime. Just four violent crimes are reported for every 1,000 residents. Although higher than the other cities on our list, it fares far better than other large metro areas in Florida. If you love living in the middle of a bustling city but would rather do without the crime and hateful attitudes of Orlando, be sure to check out Kissimmee. Satellite Beach Nestled in the heart of Florida’s Space Coast and home to a thriving aerospace industrial complex and various technological industries, it’s obvious where Satellite Beach got its name… Despite the high-tech industries, the rest of the town feels quite homey, almost sleepy. With a population of just under 11,500, less than one violent crime is committed for every 1,000 residents. Small population, excellent policing, and tons of gorgeous beaches, lagoons, and other natural features mean you can really kick back and enjoy a slice of the old Florida lifestyle and still check out the occasional rocket launch. What’s not to love? Winter Springs Another small town that is nonetheless close to big city action, Winter Springs is in Seminole County, close to both Orlando and Lake Mary. With a thriving healthcare and educational industry, Winter Springs is home to the Cross Seminole Trail, Central Winds Park, and many other parks and recreational facilities besides. Although it is sometimes derided as feeling like one giant suburb, that’s hardly anything to complain about when you consider how low the violent crime rate is compared to neighboring Orlando; right at 1.25 for every 1,000 people. Although that sounds high compared to other towns we just talked about, consider that the national average for violent crime in the US is 3.7 crimes committed for every 1,000 people. Again, you don’t have to live way out in the sticks with no amenities just to enjoy a safe town, and Winter Springs is one of the best examples in the state. Counties St. Johns Located in northeastern Florida, St. Johns County is the location of St. Augustine, which also happens to be the county seat. Focused on tourism and healthcare, easy access to sleepy villages, gorgeous Atlantic beaches, and many other historical sites make St. Johns perfect for history buffs. It’s also perfect for those wanting a quiet domain or a safe and charming place to raise a family. The county, including St. Augustine, has a violent crime rate right at three per 1,000 residents. Sumter One of the most popular retirement destinations in the entire state, Sumter County, located in Central Florida, is home to The Villages, with a capital V: it is one of the largest retirement developments in the state and even in the US… Other than legions of white-haired retirees and snowbirds, Sumter County is focused on agriculture and recreation, with Lake Panasoffkee and the Withlacoochee River being major attractions. If you aren’t in your golden years, you might be better off living out in the rural parts of the county, but in any case, you won’t be contending with much violent crime: there is less than one violent crime committed for every 1,000 residents. Collier Naples and Marco Island are both tourism hotspots and affluent vacation destinations, and both are located in Collier County. With gorgeous, golden Gulf beaches, tons of golf courses, and effective, courteous law enforcement, those who can afford to live here will enjoy the good life without worrying over the criminal element mucking things up. For those who prefer a different kind of adventure, part of the Everglades National Park extends into Collier County. In keeping with its upper-crust citizenry, violent crime is pretty low, just one instance per every 1,000 people. Sarasota Sarasota County is the location of the eponymously named Sarasota, the county seat, and Venice, both located right on the Gulf. Home to the Myakka River State Park, the indisputably gorgeous Siesta Key Beach, and a thriving, diverse cultural landscape with many amenities and top-rated schools, there’s something for everyone in Sarasota County. Whether you want to live in a bustling city with all the shops, restaurants, and conveniences you could want, or keep it quiet and quaint out in the further reaches, Sarasota County is one of the best and safest places to live in Florida. Once again, there is less than one violent crime committed for every 1,000 residents. Santa Rosa Santa Rosa County makes up a large part of the Pensacola metro area and enjoys an extremely low crime rate of less than one per 1,000 citizens. Notably beautiful, home to many state parks and gorgeous Gulf beaches, and crisscrossed with waterways that are perfect for boating, kayaking, and fishing, Santa Rosa County is pretty sparsely populated with just 200,000 people in the entire county. The post The 10 Safest Places for You to Live in Florida appeared first on Survival Sullivan.

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