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Where Are the Intelligent Aliens? Scientists Have a New Answer
The authors of the scientific article believe that there are very few extraterrestrial civilizations in the Universe.
The greatest mystery of our time is the question of the existence of intelligent aliens, that is, developed extraterrestrial civilizations. Some scientists continue to insist that they exist and just need to be found. Others believe that we are alone in the Universe.
The authors of a new article published in the International Journal of Astrobiology believe that the answer to the question of whether extraterrestrial intelligent life exists in space may be an either/or proposition, writes Forbes.
Life either has to appear or it doesn’t
In their article, scientists argue that on planets like ours, life should either arise over a long period of time or not arise at all. That is, space can be either empty or overcrowded, while values in between seem far-fetched.
In ecological systems, be it a planet or a galaxy, populations develop from some initial value to a stable state of equilibrium, when the average number of births and deaths per unit time is the same, researchers say.
This equilibrium point is a function of the birth and death rates, and the basis for the existence of the ecological system.
According to the authors, they took a classic statistical result and applied it to the question of life in the universe.
If you conduct a series of experiments for which the answer is binary (yes/no), and if there is no information about the experiments, then you can expect that almost all of the experiments will give a positive result, or almost all will give a negative result.
It is unlikely that intermediate, mixed results will be obtained, they say. This idea was first proposed by Edwin Jaynes, the originator of probability theory, which was based on the work of biochemist John Haldane.
The Milky Way is a barred spiral galaxy around 13.6 billion years old with large pivoting arms stretching out across the cosmos. Our home galaxy’s disk is about 100,000 light-years in diameter and just 1000 light-years thick, according to Las Cumbres Observatory.
The chance of finding aliens is zero
Despite this, many searchers for extraterrestrial intelligence insist that life in space is common. But Haldane believed that identical results should be expected under identical conditions, the authors say.
That is, one would expect that if life probably exists, then it will be everywhere, and if it is very rare, then it will not be anywhere.
According to scientists, it would be strange if half of all planetary systems had technologically advanced civilizations. This would mean that small changes in the properties of these planetary systems would greatly alter the prospects for the emergence of technological civilizations.
Researchers have come to the conclusion that if there is only one extraterrestrial intelligent civilization, then the chance of detecting it is zero.
If advanced extraterrestrial civilizations arose, they would likely be visible in the infrared spectrum of light, thanks to structures such as Dyson spheres. But nothing of the kind was found, scientists say.
Aliens are very far away
Even if we assume that extraterrestrial intelligence is very rare, then there are approximately a trillion galaxies in the Universe, and therefore it is almost impossible to find aliens.
The authors of the article believe that developed extraterrestrial civilizations, if they exist, are most likely very, very few and they are very far from each other.
Thus, scientists admit the possibility that aliens may live in another galaxy, but they simply do not exist in our galaxy. That is, Earth may be the only inhabited world in the Milky Way.
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