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The Worst-Case Scenario For Democrats: It’s Happening
What’s the worst-case scenario for Democrats right now?
The worst-case scenario is not Joe Biden dropping out. If Joe Biden dropped out, they’d get Kamala Harris or somebody else, and then they’d have a fresh race against Donald Trump. And the worst-case scenario is not Joe Biden staying in because, if he stays in and everyone in his party consolidates behind him, he probably loses, but it doesn’t have a massive down-ballot effect.
The worst-case scenario for Democrats is: not being sure. It is the worst case scenario because more than half the party wants Biden out while he and his family want him in. It’s tearing the party apart. It’s creating massive chaos inside the Democratic Party. It is sinking Biden and the rest of the Democratic Party’s poll numbers. And over the course of the last couple of weeks, what he’s done is just make that situation much worse.
The polling data right now is very consistent. Trump has a consistent 3-5 point lead in the national polling data, according to Real Clear Politics. Their polling average shows Trump leading in the following battleground states: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. He is within spitting distance in Virginia, New Hampshire, and even Minnesota.
All of this is a disaster area for Biden because the map is exceptionally broad for Trump and it is extraordinarily narrow for Biden.
But the Democratic Party can’t force the old man out. Despite the fact that, according to a Pew Research poll, he currently has a 32% approval rating — including a 27% approval rating among people aged 18-to-29, which is supposed to be his radical, magical base — every so often, some sort of outlier poll shows a dead heat between Trump and Biden.
That’s enough for Biden to believe that perhaps he can pull the election out after all. Yesterday, a brand new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was released finding Trump and Biden in a dead heat for the nation’s popular vote. Those results almost mirrored those of an ABC News/Ipsos poll from April in which registered voters favored Trump 46% to 44%, with 8% going someplace else.
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The big problem for congressional Democrats is that they want to oust Joe Biden. But they’re going to need better data than polls like that one. What they really need to do is somehow convince Jill Biden, who is the driving force behind Joe Biden’s logic, that there’s no way he can win. But there’s no way to convince him of that because he keeps thinking that the poll shortcomings he is having right now are due to the fact his own base is not supporting him properly, according to Politico, which reported:
The first family remains committed to the campaign, with first lady Jill Biden and the president’s son, Hunter, both telling confidants that they still believe that the president is the only candidate who can beat Trump, according to the two people familiar.
The first lady has also expressed fear that bowing out would make the Atlanta debate a defining image of her husband’s presidency, an outcome she finds unacceptable, the people said. Biden’s sister, Valerie, also remains committed to the campaign but has not ruled out advocating changes if the race becomes damaging to her brother’s health and legacy.
In essence, Biden’s immediate family is telling him to stay in. And Jill Biden — who has a bizarre image in her head that Joe Biden stepping down would be much worse for him than if he runs and loses — is the person in his ear.
Meanwhile, aides are bracing for a new wave of defections following Biden’s Thursday press conference. But the point is: It wasn’t as big of a disaster area as many of the Biden critics had hoped. Contrastingly, it was a best-case scenario for Trump because, if he and the Republican Party want chaos to remain inside the Democratic Party, Biden performing barely well enough so he sticks around is ideal.
That is precisely what is happening.
A series of reports indicate a growing movement inside the Democratic Party to replace Biden. His aides themselves are leaking like fury everywhere that Biden needs to leave the race.
All of this has been building since the presidential debate. Yesterday, Biden spoke at a press conference. This was the moment when Biden was supposed to turn into “Smokin’ Joe,” come out gunning, be strong and powerful.
First, Biden mentioned it would not be like a normal press conference in which he just called on people randomly. He had a list of reporters he would call on, presumably prescreened by his team.
None of the reporters asked about Biden not having cabinet meetings for nine months. None of them asked about the fact that Joe Biden’s White House called to edit radio interviews this week. None asked about a possible Parkinson’s diagnosis. No questions were asked about why Hunter Biden, a convicted felon and longtime crack addict, is now in the inner circle and attending cabinet meetings.
Biden referred to “Vice President Trump,” saying, “Look, I wouldn’t have picked Vice President Trump to be vice president did I think she was not qualified to be president.” He also said no one has suggested he take a neurological test.
Except for half of America.
He continued, saying, “I’m following the advice of my commander-in-chief.”
Jill Biden has a new nickname, apparently.
And this was his best press conference.
But it may have been good enough so he stays in the race.
And the chaos resulting from it is great news for Trump.
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