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Presidential Debates And How Much They Can Matter
The presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Trump may well help decide the election in November; the history of televised presidential debates suggests that their effect can be significant. One factor that makes this debate so unusual is that is being held far in advance of the presidential election.
The first televised debates occurred in 1960, when Vice President Richard Nixon debated Massachusetts senator John F. Kennedy. In the wake of the two parties conventions, Nixon held a six-point lead over Kennedy in most polls. The four debates were held on September 26, October 7, October 13, and October 21.
The first debate was seen by 65 million viewers; Nixon had been campaigning extensively and had lost 15 pounds. In addition, Nixon refused to wear makeup while Kennedy did, leading to Kennedy looking refreshed while Nixon’s five-o-clock shadow made him look more haggard.
Howard K. Smith, who moderated the first debate, said decades later that television legitimized Kennedy as a candidate. “One night elevated Kennedy,” he said. “He had been known as a ‘boy senator.’ But the person who came into the studio that night wasn’t a boy. He was a man.”
“60 Minutes” creator Don Hewitt agreed: “When it was all over, I said, ‘My God, we’ve just elected a president of the United States.’ But I also remember saying, ‘I’m not sure we should elect one this way.’ We were just looking at two performers and picking the better performer.”
The next televised presidential debates occurred in 1976 between President Gerald Ford and Georgia governor Jimmy Carter. The three presidential debates (a fourth vice-presidential debate was held between the GOP’s Robert Dole and the Democrat’s Walter Mondale) were held on September 23, October 6, and October 22. Carter said years later, “If it hadn’t been for the debates, I would have lost. They established me as competent on foreign and domestic affairs and gave the viewers reason to think that Jimmy Carter had something to offer.”
1980 featured only one debate between former California governor Ronald Reagan and President Carter. The first presidential debate was held on September 21, but because independent candidate John Anderson was invited Carter did not participate. After Reagan did quite well, Anderson’s poll numbers plunged. Carter and Reagan debated alone on October 28. Reagan won handily, largely because of him asking whether Americans were better off than they had been four years before and his oft-repeated statement to Carter, “There you go again.” An ABC poll after the debate found two-thirds of respondents thought Reagan won. Reagan had been running as much as 8% behind Carter before the debate, which occurred one week before the election. He then crushed Carter in the election.
In 2000, George W. Bush debated Al Gore on October 3, 11 and 17. Time Magazine noted of the first debate, “The pundits and the polls agreed: Gore had won the debate. Then he lost: within a week, Bush had opened up a lead in several polls, as voters apparently decided they were tired of Professor Know-It-All.” Bush narrowly won the election.
In 2012, three debates were held between President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, on October 3, October 16, and October 22. Romney had been trailing in polls until the first debate, which people thought he won, thus helping him surge into the lead in Gallup and Pew polls. But Obama did much better in the second debate, propelling him to victory in the election.
The 2016 debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump occurred on September 26, October 9, and October 19, and proved to be a major exception. Clinton was deemed the winner of each debate in virtually every poll. But in the end, Trump won the election.
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