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OOPS! New Axios Report Just Kneecapped the Media’s ‘K-Shaped Economy’ Narrative
One of the most exhausted methods employed by the media to tear into the Trump second-term economy has been to whip out the narrative that it is “K-shaped” -- wealthy Americans propping up consumer spending while poorer consumers increasingly pull back. But a new report from Axios just blew up that whole talking point.
Axios economics reporter Courtenay Brown released a story February 26 that got straight to the point, “Economists are questioning the K-shaped narrative.” After arguing that the “K-shaped” argument had recently become the “economic consensus,” now “Some economists warn that the narrative has outrun the data supporting it.”
Brown reported that a team of Barclays economists released a note earlier this month that completely skewered the argument writ large. “‘The narrative of K-shaped growth appears to be exaggerated, downplaying risks of a fragile expansion,’” the note reportedly stated. Oh, no kidding!
Funnily enough, Brown is the same reporter who shredded the incessant media kvetching last year in May 2025 by writing that “tariff-driven inflation and recession fears may be overblown.” Looks like she’s back for another reality check.
Addressing a core assumption by the K-shapers that the divergence regarding the wealthy’s overall share of consumption was worsening, Brown reported that “[t]he answer is no, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics' Samuel Tombs.” In fact, wrote Brown, “The richest 20% of households have accounted for a steady 40% of total consumer spending for the past 25 years — unchanged in 2025, even as asset prices boomed.” In addition, poorer households’ “share of spending has held steady, too: The bottom 20% account for roughly 9% of spending.”
Even more telling, per Brown is that “Spending in categories where lower-income households account for the largest share ‘grew the most above their long-run trend last year.’" In essence: The “K-shaped” narrative is a load of bunk.
With this in mind, a retrospective look at the fear porn surrounding the Trump economy along the “K-shape” angle emphasizes the degree to which the media tried to make this misleading argument stick. Then-Washington Post economics opinion columnist Heather Long was bleating as far back as August 2025 that “[t]he “K-shaped” economy is back, where there’s a clear divergence between how the top and the bottom are faring.” Her headline read as follows: “The economy is cracking. This trend is most alarming.”
The New York Times released a February 11 story headlined, “What Executives Are Saying About the ‘K-Shaped’ Economy.” PBS economics correspondent Paul Solman even tried to be cute last week on PBS NewsHour by holding up a box of “Special K” cereal to smugly force-feed the K-shaped argument down viewers’ throats.
So what did we learn from this? It’s very simple: The media will do anything to throw a wrench into any positive developments in the Trump economy, even if it means dubiously employing doom narratives that are don't match the facts on the ground.
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