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Trump and the Gaza Ceasefire: Implications for the Future of the Abraham Accords
I’ve been following closely every utterance of the new Trump administration regarding the situation in the Middle East. In that regard, by the way, I strongly endorse and recommend Schmuel Katzkin’s treatment in Sunday’s The American Spectator. With Katzkin, I think it’s very much time to “hope big,” even as I acknowledge that past hopes for a lasting — and defensible — peace in the Middle East have been routinely shattered.
Historical Context of Israeli Conflicts
I’m not quite old enough to remember the 1956 war between Israel (with British and French support) and its Arab neighbors, although, down through the years, I’ve read everything about it I could lay my hands on, including extensive discussions of the regrettably negative role played by our own country during this “Suez Crisis.”
It’s hard to know what might have followed from a decision to support action against the Nasser regime; history is always contingent, and alternative choices inevitably lead to unpredictable outcomes. Hindsight, after all, is always 20/20. But I suspect things could have scarcely turned out worse, and there were all sorts of ways in which they might have turned out better.
Much the same might be said of the 1967 and 1973 wars, and indeed of all the other such conflicts ever since. So much blood has been shed, so much violence unleashed, particularly in the form of Islamist terrorism. I’m staunchly on the side of the Israelis in all of this, not because one can’t find some Israeli actions objectionable, but emphatically because the bottom line has always been a desire on the part of the Israelis to be left alone to live in peace.
Gradually, through force of arms in successive wars, the Israelis taught neighboring countries that attacking Israel openly was a losing proposition. But the Islamists shifted the terms of the battle, particularly once it became one waged by Iran’s mullahs through their various proxies, Katzkin’s “three H’s,” Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Terrorism became the common coinage as the conflict played out in the 21st Century.
With the Oct. 7 massacre, Israel declared “enough.” Hamas has been crushed, Hezbollah decapitated, the Houthis marginalized (although still capable of great mischief), and, above all, the Iranian regime has been humbled. All of this has been achieved despite first Obama and then Biden’s willingness to play up to Iran, and even more so in spite of Biden’s haphazard “support” for Israel in its hour of need. In the immediate aftermath of Oct. 7, I expressed, more than once, the hope that Israel would not be prevented from finishing the job, and in large part, that hope has come true.
Most Recent Ceasefire
So what then to make of the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas? What are we to conclude from the manner in which the incoming Trump administration — no friend of Hamas or of its legions of enablers among America’s progressives — joined ranks with the Biden team to push for this agreement? Why make arguably a bad tradeoff, releasing so many Hamas terrorists for so few hostages? Katzkin characterizes the deal as “discouraging because it incentivizes hostage-taking” in the future. I think he’s absolutely correct, and many have wondered why, at this juncture, the Israelis have chosen to take their foot off the gas pedal.
Obviously, humanitarian concerns play a huge role. Throughout the many months since Oct. 7, the ongoing plight of the hostages had weighed heavily on public opinion in Israel. The joy accompanying their return is palpable. It may also be that the IDF simply needs a break.
Although it has executed its mission in Gaza with great skill and due concern for minimizing its casualties, the IDF relies heavily on mobilized reserves. The longer a mobilization lasts, the greater the strain on every aspect of Israeli society. And it may simply be the case that, with Trump in place of Biden, there is more confidence in Jerusalem that, when the time comes, Israel may be allowed to finish the job of neutralizing Hamas once and for all.
Trump’s Future Strategy in the Middle East
I suspect, however, that there is another reason why Trump pushed so hard for the ceasefire, and why Netanyahu so readily agreed, and I’m surprised that this reason has attracted so little discussion. Simply stated, the ceasefire opens the door to the expansion of the Abraham Accords, and specifically to the first steps toward bringing Saudi Arabia on board, which would be an absolute game changer.
This was something even “Biden” (that is, the string pullers behind his administration) wanted to achieve, so much so that, having started by stigmatizing the Saudis for all manner of sins, in its latter stages the Biden regime worked hard to normalize ties to Riyadh. But the Saudis, wisely, didn’t trust Biden or his Obama retreads, all of them compromised by a commitment to playing nice with Iran’s mullahs.
Above all, after Oct. 7, with open warfare between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, the Saudi leaders couldn’t let themselves be seen as “cozying up” to Israel. It has always been likely that one of the reasons why the mullahs “greenlighted” the Oct. 7 pogrom was a desire to derail the peace process and to prevent an accession of Saudi Arabia to the Abraham Accords.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the other Saudi leaders understand full well that their deadliest enemy is the Iranian regime and that making common cause with Israel, the greatest regional military power, affords them the greatest long-term strategic advantage. Their relationship with the Houthis is one of outright mutual hatred and with Hamas one of contempt.
Interestingly, this week Donald Trump brought up the idea of just moving the Palestinians out of Gaza and having them taken in by Jordan and Egypt. He may have meant it as a temporary measure while Gazan institutions and infrastructure are rebuilt, but more likely the intention was to lance, once and for all, the festering boil on Israel’s border.
However, both the Jordanians and the Egyptians immediately dismissed the idea as a non-starter, and well they might, for the dirty little secret of Arab politics, going back to 1948, is that none of the neighboring Arab countries much likes the Palestinians or wants to have to deal with them directly.
This is also true of the Saudi leadership, who would like nothing better than a solution that removes the Palestinians as an obstacle to a broader anti-Iran alliance in the Middle East. Like the Jordanians and the Egyptians, they don’t want to have them on their soil, but at the same time, they can’t simply walk away, not least because, for too many years, Wahhabi clerics funded by Saudi Arabia stirred the Arab street in support of Palestinian ambitions.
Saudi Arabia might have found a path to accommodation with Israel prior to Oct. 7, but once hostilities flared, the Saudi leaders were trapped by Arab public opinion. The new ceasefire reopens the possibility of closer ties, which are likely informal for now, but with accession to the Abraham Accords, the likely goal. The crown prince knows that he is playing for time, that the long-term survival of the monarchy requires peace with Israel and, in conjunction with the United States, a new era of maximum pressure on the mullahs until, one day, the Iranian people can be free again — and peace might just come to the region.
Will it happen tomorrow? Of course not. Are there many obstacles today, and a panoply of threats for tomorrow — of course, as demonstrated by Oct. 7. But one can see the outlines of a path forward emerging, one that marginalizes such bad actors as the Qatar regime and isolates Iran. A path forward encouraged and supported by the new leadership of the United States, one unburdened by Obama-era fantasies about Iran and barely concealed hostility towards Israel.
A path forward. That, in itself, after decades of loss and heartbreak, is something worthy of our prayers and our best efforts.
READ MORE from James H. McGee:
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James H. McGee retired in 2018 after nearly four decades as a national security and counter-terrorism professional, working primarily in the nuclear security field. Since retiring, he’s begun a second career as a thriller writer. His recent novel, Letter of Reprisal, tells the tale of a desperate mission to destroy a Chinese bioweapon facility hidden in the heart of the central African conflict region. A forthcoming sequel finds the Reprisal team fighting against terrorists who’ve infiltrated our southern border in a conspiracy that ranges across the globe. You can find Letter of Reprisal on Amazon in both Kindle and paperback editions and on Kindle Unlimited.
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