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War on Iran Will Squander America’s Military Edge
Foreign Affairs
War on Iran Will Squander America’s Military Edge
The U.S. can sustain combat operations for a long while—but Americans won’t be safer afterwards.
Early Tuesday morning, President Donald Trump lashed out at those arguing that the United States would soon run out of missiles to fuel his war of choice in Iran. “The United States Munitions Stockpiles have at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better…Wars can be fought ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies…” he posted on Truth Social.
Trump is right about one thing. Lack of U.S. weapons will not be a constraint on the fighting in Iran. Stockpiles are not unlimited, but they are plenty deep to allow the military to fight for as long as Trump chooses. But Trump’s war will still do long-term damage to U.S. military power, creating an extended period of vulnerability that the United States will struggle to overcome.
The Trump administration may believe that its combat operations in Iran are a powerful manifestation of American military dominance, but in the end, this war is likely to accelerate the overdue death of the American imperial project, possibly on terms quite unfavorable to the United States and its allies.
Concern about the depth of U.S. missile arsenals has been on the rise since 2022, when the conflict in Ukraine reminded policymakers and military analysts about the massive defense industrial demands of modern warfare. These concerns did not stop the Biden administration from draining U.S. stockpiles, however, by providing over $100 billion in military aid to Ukraine and doubling down on military assistance to Israel after October 7, 2023.
The Trump administration’s exploits in the Middle East in 2025—against the Houthis and in the 12-Day War—put additional pressure on U.S. magazine depth, depleting supplies of some of the most advanced U.S. weapons, including Tomahawk missiles and THAAD and Patriot air defense interceptors. The revelation that the United States expended 25 percent of its THAAD missile holdings defending Israel in June 2025, for instance, triggered alarm bells for U.S. officials and the general public.
Still, warnings that the United States will run out of missiles in Iran or predictions that relative magazine depth will be the war’s decisive factor go too far and fundamentally misunderstand the risks and costs of the new war in the Middle East.
It is indisputable that the United States has limited quantities of its most advanced and exquisite precision and air defense missiles, including Patriot and THAAD interceptors, the new Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles. But the Pentagon’s supplies of less advanced munitions are deep and can be replenished relatively rapidly, especially if financing is available.
The United States has large stockpiles of Small Diameter Bombs and Joint Direct Attack Munitions that turn cheap bombs and missiles into precision weapons and even more substantial supplies of gravity bombs which lack precision targeting but can still hit and destroy hardened targets. These weapons are all that will be needed once the United States establishes air superiority, a level of control Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth suggests the U.S. military may already have.
When it comes to air defense, the United States also has a diversity of options, including several variants of Standard Missiles and Sea Sparrows for protection of naval assets and AIM-120 and other air-launched missiles that can be fired by fighter jets. Efficient counter drone systems are in shorter supply, but even here, the U.S. military has a growing number of choices, including laser-guided weapons such as the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System, that offer low-cost solutions for Iran’s large supply of Shahed drones.
The bottom line is that the idea that the United States will be forced to cease combat operations in Iran because it has no more missiles or interceptors is unrealistic. However, as supplies of the best munitions dwindle, the Pentagon will have to prioritize targets and accept more risk in both its offensive and defensive missions. It will have to tolerate higher levels of civilian collateral damage and lower air defense interception rates, which will mean more U.S. casualties and damage to U.S. military hardware. While this is far from ideal, it will allow the Trump administration to continue the war for as long as necessary to achieve something that it can declare a success.
But the ability of the United States to keep fighting the war does not mean that rapid expenditures of expensive U.S. weapons in the Middle East—a region where the United States has few strategic interests—and against Iran—a nation that poses no threat to the U.S. homeland—will not have costs for the United States. It absolutely will. Most eyes are focused on the short-term implications of the fighting in Iran, but it is the longer lasting geopolitical costs—costs that will weaken the United States for years if not decades to come—that matter most.
While U.S. missile and air defense interceptor stockpiles will likely last through this war, they will have to be rebuilt afterward—along with the arsenals of Gulf partners. Already high demand for Patriot missiles is likely to skyrocket, along with orders for counter drone systems and offensive munitions of all kinds, as states (including the U.S.) try to fill gaps revealed by the current round of fighting.
This spike in U.S. requirements and the needs of Middle East partners could not come at a worse time. Today, European allies, fearful of the threat from Russia, are looking to acquire U.S. munitions in large quantities. Ukraine is almost wholly dependent on U.S. air defense for protection of civilians and critical infrastructure. And allies in Asia are also looking to increase their own purchases of U.S. air defense and missile systems with an eye on China’s rising military power.
These demands and those of the U.S. military can be addressed, but only with immense amounts of time and money. For some weapons, the limit is production capacity. For others, the issue is that high cost and limited budget space constrain what the United States and U.S. clients can feasibly purchase at a given time. Once this war ends, long backlogs of orders are likely, especially for weapons that the U.S. military needs most. The most exquisite weapons require long lead times, can take years to build, and single points of failure can derail production schedules at almost any time.
The inevitable result is a prolonged period of strategic vulnerability for the United States, one that will ripple across its network of allies and partners. During this period, Washington will face a stark geopolitical reality. U.S. military forces abroad will be more exposed and less protected than they are today. If a conflict were to erupt in Europe or Asia—even one that the United States managed to stay out of—the U.S. ability to secure American bases and materiel could be constrained. Its ability to support weakened allies and partners would be even more limited.
In a post-Iran war future, Washington will have to make harsh choices. It will have to decide whether to keep its global military footprint and accept the higher risk to its forces and assets or to reduce its global presence to protect U.S. assets and personnel. At the same time, commitments that the United States made decades ago will be largely insolvent.
For at least a period of several years, the United States will likely not be able to defend Taiwan if it were to be attacked. European allies, also weakened by lack of U.S. military supplies, will similarly be left to fend for themselves. More immediately (as soon as next month), Washington’s ability to support Ukraine’s air defense and munitions needs will be reduced, with possible implications for its ongoing war against Russia. Over time, U.S. allies will move away from the United States, perhaps permanently, building their own defenses and finding new partners.
For those that have long argued for U.S. global retrenchment, this outcome may not be entirely unwelcome. But there is a meaningful difference between a retrenchment made by choice and managed to protect U.S. interests and one forced on the United States after a wasteful war that consumes what remains of U.S. global military advantage.
The latter case offers no guarantees that the United States will be able to protect its interests abroad and ensures a loss of strategic flexibility that will leave Americans less safe. Most importantly, in the event of a future crisis that does have implications for Americans, there is no guarantee that the United States would be positioned or equipped to respond. The result could be damage to U.S. economic interests or even the physical security of the homeland—the exact opposite of “America first.”
Therein lies the ultimate irony: A war fought as a needless display of American military hegemony is ultimately likely to destroy the very hegemony it sought to entrench.
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