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Foreign Affairs Life After Xi China is sailing the high seas with an aging helmsman. (Photo by MAXIM SHEMETOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images) For years, Xi Jinping has encouraged the usage of many Maoist era slogans. One such slogan, “Sailing the Seas Depends on the Helmsman,” was a Cultural Revolution staple, used in song, speeches, and on posters praising the chairman. The slogan’s reemergence highlights a connection in how the state viewed itself then and now.The slogan also reflects Xi’s view of himself. As his years in office have gone on, this self-portrait has also been imposed on the party itself. Xi is presented as singular and irreplaceable. And yet, inevitably, he will need one day to be replaced. Already seventy-two years old, Xi likely will secure another five-year term in 2027. But time is an enemy not so easily purged. As the years go on, the passage of time will silently erode Xi’s authority and reshape the behavior of other Chinese elites, loosening his hold over them, whether or not the aging leader is ready for it. Xi’s China pretends succession is a solved problem. It is not. The CCP chooses to ignore the question publicly, but behind closed doors, the party cadres know the clock is ticking. In the West, Xi’s consolidation of authority is often portrayed as growing in strength. In reality, it reflects myriad forms of national weakness: factionalism, corruption, economic slowdown, demographic collapse. Each is pushing China from a bureaucratic technocracy back into a personalist autocracy. This transition is well documented by scholars. Carl Minzner, one of the leading voices on China’s political trajectory, argues that China is experiencing an era of “counter-reform” in which personalism resurfaces as institutional norms grow weak. Xi’s power was not inherited. His predecessor, Hu Jintao, did not wield anything close to this level of authority. Rather, Xi spent a decade systematically building a network designed to center the system around himself.Although the Chinese Communist Party frames this centralization of power as necessary for “stability,” it risks a succession crisis in the not-too-distant future. When China reaches the time when a power transition is needed, it will enter one of the most dangerous political periods since Mao. But the Chinese political class is likely to maintain control. As rulers age in personalist structures, the incentive structure of elites shifts. While supporting the aging ruler is safe now, that calculation will change in five or ten years. As the helmsman weakens, elite-risk calculation shifts against the aging captain, regardless of ideology. Strongman autocracies always insist that their helmsman is timeless. Mao was celebrated for his vigor even at eighty-two when he was clearly geriatric. The same was true for the energetic Soviet gerontocrats like Brezhnev, even as he slept through Politburo meetings. Of course, American readers may feel a sense of déjà vu, as recent presidents and congressional leaders have often been older than Xi himself. But one way or another, U.S. elections tend to remove even the most ingrained figures and provide a mechanism for selecting their replacement. Xi, in his speeches, portrays himself as a visionary leading China into a “new era” of “national rejuvenation.” In his 2021 New Year’s address, he spoke again of “changes unseen in a century.”  However, while his propaganda can deny reality, those in his political orbit cannot. A rising administrator wonders what value there is in tying his future to a man nearing eighty. Businesses will worry about investment under instability. Technocrats worry about imposing new reforms that curb the old man’s power, something anyone who has ever spoken to their grandfather could understand. Xi’s administration is often credited with the elimination of factional politics. However, this is a mistake. Instead, the reality is that China’s political factionalism moved underground.  Minzner notes that institutional decay strengthens informal political networks. Jude Blanchette describes a similar process in his work on how Xi re-engineered the political system around himself. The calculus for the cadres in these factions is not to openly oppose Xi. He has won for now. Instead, they wait. They prepare for the world after Xi. They hedge their bets quietly, judging rationally that this is the correct next step in a system under an aging apex.As with past power transitions, even in the wake of instability, it is unlikely China will experience a dramatic revision. The CCP has always preferred slow rebalancing. The likeliest scenario has four main themes to watch for:1. A Temporary Leadership Committee In the initial stages after the resignation of the leader, Leninist systems often turn to rule by committee. Without an obvious successor, they let the committee essentially act as a political testing ground. Eventually, one dominant personality will likely rise through the committee to define the new era. 2. A Weak Successor In spite of the ascension of a new leader, it is very unlikely such a figure could match the gravitas of Xi. Even if he is a loyalist with Xi’s backing, he will lack the prestige and centrality of his predecessor. 3. Policy Moderation is Different from Westernization Xi’s regime has often been seen as a reversion to the old ways. Moving away from this policy will likely be misread in the West as liberalization. Instead, CCP elites will make such moves in order to buy stability. It is likely China will return closer to the technocratic model of Xi’s predecessors, in spite of the current administration’s purges of past technocratic leaders. This means pursuing quieter diplomacy and selective deregulations.  4. Military’s Political Power Increases Xi significantly strengthened the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). With his resignation, its power will remain, and it will be less restricted by the new leadership. This doesn’t mean a military takeover, but the power of the PLA will be elevated in the new China. After Mao’s death, China spent thirty years working to build a political system that, while authoritarian, was designed to prevent dictatorial rule. Chinese elites put into place retirement ages, term limits, and other restrictions on presidential power as tools of self-preservation. Xi dismantled these structures, ensuring his continued place at the helm. But sooner or later, the ship of state must confront the brutal waves of reality. The post Life After Xi appeared first on The American Conservative.

Uncategorized Epstein Revelations Won’t Bring Down Trump It is unlikely that a smoking gun would have gone unnoticed in years of scrutiny and political acrimony. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) The Epstein Files are the left’s white knight, the deus ex machina they hope will finally destroy Donald Trump. It is believed Epstein, a pig of a man who is now the unlikely savior of the Democratic Party, will succeed in bringing down Trump where multiple impeachments, Russiagate, the ex-fixer Michael Cohen, endless prosecutions over increasingly arcane financial acts, three elections, late night TV, and whatever is the gaffe or rudeness of the week have failed. This is unlikely. One reason the soon-to-be-released Epstein files are unlikely to fatally damage Trump is that very little in the new documents will be truly new. Trump’s past social interactions with Epstein have been public knowledge for decades. Photos of the two men at parties were published long before Epstein’s 2019 arrest. Trump acknowledges knowing Epstein, once calling him “a terrific guy” in a 2002 magazine interview; he has said they later had a falling-out. None of this has produced much legal or even reputational exposure. To bring down a political figure like Trump, there must be a revelation, a mediagenic single piece of information that dramatically shifts the known narrative. Without a revelatory moment, the story cannot cross the threshold from speculation to actionable misconduct. The files released to date contain no evidence of Trump’s participation in Epstein’s trafficking. But it’s not as if the Justice Department (DOJ) information about Epstein has been sitting around unexamined. Five years ago, the DOJ’s Office of Professional Responsibility released the results of its extensive investigation into how Epstein secured a lenient plea deal in Florida in 2008. The 348-page document only said the deal reflected “poor judgment.” It also noted the prosecutor in charge of child exploitation cases at the time said that none of the victims he spoke with “ever talked about any other men being involved in abusing them.” What remains is only speculation. Epstein was arrested in 2019, during the first Trump presidency. Nothing came out. Very significantly, the Biden administration held the same files for four years and nothing came out. Former Vice President Kamala Harris ran against Trump in a heated campaign and nothing came out. Epstein accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell was convicted of sex trafficking and nothing came out. Of the hundreds, maybe thousands, of celebrities, house servants, airplane mechanics, et al. who would have interacted with Epstein, none have come out, not even perhaps to turn state’s witness and save themselves from a conspiracy charge. The one man who knew everything, Epstein himself, is dead by suicide. The most convincing victim willing to speak out, Virginia Giuffre, is dead by suicide (though she made no allegations against Trump while alive or in her book). Maxwell’s strategy has been to remain tight-lipped; she will plead the Fifth in the House Epstein probe. This is not to say that some or all of that left unsaid may contain important material, but rather that, despite everything, the hard reality is nothing has tied Trump to the crimes. Nothing but wishful thinking suggests the new document dump will be any different. This is not a surprise. The files coming out were prepared by the Department of Justice to prosecute Epstein, the sole defendant. Why would they contain critical information about others who could also become defendants but somehow just didn’t? The FBI and DOJ wrote that the documents “did not expose any additional third-parties to allegations of illegal wrongdoing… We did not uncover evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties.” Epstein has been one of the most investigated criminals in modern American history. After his 2006 Florida charges, state prosecutors, civil attorneys, newspapers, investigative journalists, and advocacy groups examined his case extensively. After his 2019 arrest, scrutiny intensified further. Ghislaine Maxwell’s trial produced thousands of pages of documents. Throughout, Trump has been scrutinized by political opponents, media outlets, litigation adversaries, and multiple prosecutors. If any credible Epstein-related allegation involving Trump existed, the likelihood that it would have remained hidden through such sustained examination is extremely small. Here’s one thing the new documents will certainly contain: the names of well-known people who associated with Epstein. These associations are not evidence of criminal or immoral conduct. The already-known Epstein’s contact lists, party guest books, flight manifests, and social calendars include a vast array of individuals. The mere presence of a name in a contact file, a Christmas card list, or a flight log does not demonstrate involvement in illegal or immoral activity. This distinction matters because the bar is extremely high. To bring down a public figure, especially one as lawyered-up as Trump, prosecutors would need corroborated evidence of a specific criminal act, a credible witness, and a clear link tying Trump to the conduct. The Epstein files are messy, sprawling, and most often ambiguous. They reveal Epstein had connections with many people, but they do not, by themselves, yet create a case. Of course in certain circles, such as at Harvard, this might be enough to bring down someone (see Larry Summers). But Trump is different. The most plausible fallout from the files will occur far below Trump’s level. Trump’s persona is based on the perception that he is constantly under attack from elites, institutions, and the media. New allegations often serve to reinforce, not weaken, his supporters’ belief that he is being unfairly targeted. Take a look at the Access Hollywood tape, two impeachments, multiple criminal indictments, civil judgments, 34 felonies, and the host of other scandals that would have ended the careers of any other politician. Few MAGA voters remain who would meaningfully shift their position because of guilt-by-association allegations in decades-old documents. And the media will no doubt overplay any tidbits found, adding to MAGA’s view of them as predators in their own right. Absent new and concrete evidence, which has not surfaced in any release to date, the Epstein files will generate headlines and endless conspiracy theories but not collapse the administration. Trump has survived scandals far more direct and damaging. The Epstein story will continue to matter deeply for victims seeking truth and accountability, but in American politics, it is unlikely to deliver the downfall some predict. The post Epstein Revelations Won’t Bring Down Trump appeared first on The American Conservative.

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